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Akron vs Toledo Odds and Picks (Jan. 28)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Jan 28, 2022 · 2:44 AM PST

Toledo guard Ryan Rollins rolling on the ground after a loose ball
Toledo guard Ryan Rollins and Richmond guard Jacob Gilyard (0) go to the floor for a loose ball during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the first round of the NIT, Wednesday, March 17, 2021, in Denton, Texas. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
  • The Akron vs Toledo odds favor the Rockets by 8 points at home on Friday
  • Akron has won four in a row and 11 of 13 straight up
  • Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

Toledo (16-4, 8-1 Mid-American) is an 8-point home favorite over Akron at 7:00 pm ET Friday on the CBS Sports Network. The Rockets are 7-0 straight up and ATS since a 3-point loss at Kent State on New Year’s Day.

Akron (13-5, 6-2 Mid-American) is 4-1 straight up and 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Four different Zips have scored at least 20 points in a game this season.

Akron vs Toledo

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Akron Zips +265 +8 (-120) Over 140.5 (-106)
Toledo Rockets -320 -8 (-102) Under 140.5 (-114)

Odds from FanDuel on Jan. 27.

Toledo is an 8-point home favorite against Akron, with the total set at 140.5 Toledo is -320 on the moneyline, meaning the Rockets have a 76.2% implied win probability. At +280 on the moneyline, Akron has a 27.4% implied win probability.

Akron Doubles Up

Akron sophomore forward Enrique Freeman has played taller than his listed  specs — 6’7, 205 — this season to give the Zips a boost. Freeman is averaging 12.2 points and 10.8 rebounds, one of 13 players in Division I averaging a scoring/rebounding double-double.

Freeman has at least 10 rebounds in 14 of the Zips’ 18 games, including six of eight in the MAC, although his production has dipped just slightly in conference play, where he has been held to single digits three times and is averaging 11.5 points.

Freeman crashes the offensive glass hard for relatively easy put-backs —  he is ninth in the nation within 3.67 offensive rebounds per game, one of the reasons he is  shooting 64.0 percent from the field, fourth in Division I.

The Zips also have gotten balanced play from double-digit scorers wing Ali Ali (14.1 points), point guard Xavier Castaneda (13.5 points, 2.8 assists) and shooting guard Bryan Trimble (11.1 points). Trimble has 45 3-pointers and Castaneda has 41.

Akron also does the little things. The Zips are committing only 11.6 turnovers per game and have a plus-4.6 rebound margin, both among the top 20 percent in Division I. Opponents are shooting 41.4 percent from the field.

Akron vs Toledo Head-to-Head Results

Toledo has won five of the last six in the series, 4-2 ATS. Since the 2013-14 season, the Rockets are 9-2 straight up and ATS in the series. The teams split the two games last season, both winning at home.

The Rockets are 5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS in the last five in Toledo, all as a favorite between 3.5 points and 8.5 points. Three of the last five and five of the last seven at Savage Arena have gone under the total.

Zips vs Rockets Betting Trends

Akron has won four in a row but is 1-3 ATS. The Zips are 5-1 as an underdog this season and 3-1 as a road underdog.

Toledo is 14-5 ATS, 10-3 as a favorite. The Rockets are 5-2 at home ATS, all as a favorite.

Toledo Rockets Rising

Not only is Toledo ranked No. 9 in the latest Mid-Major Top 25, it also is ranked No. 67 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin.

The Rockets are tops in the MAC and are rated ahead of Florida State (72), Saint Louis (74), Colorado (78) and Saint Bonaventure (89). Akron is 151 in KenPom efficiency, in large due to a non-conference schedule ranked 286th in Division I.

Guard Ryan Rollins leads the Rockets, averaging 20.0 points a game with 5.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Forward 6’7 JT Shumate (15.2 points), Setric Millner (14.8 points) are in the top 15 in the MAC in scoring, and Shumate and Millner and RayJ Dennis (11.8 points) are averaging six rebounds a game.

Shumate is shooting 55.4 percent from the floor and has made 40 of 82 three-point attempts. Rollins has made 31 threes.

Toledo, like Akron, also takes care of the basics. They average 11.2 turnovers per game and have a plus-5.1 rebound margin. Opponents are shooting 39.7 percent from the floor

Akron vs Toledo Prediction

Two of the best teams in the MAC are two of the most equally matched statistically. While Toledo has owned the series in recent seasons, it has never covered a spread of eight points or larger in this series. Look for the Zips to make it a game.

The pick: Akron +8 (-120)

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