- #3 Gonzaga is a 9.5-point home favorite over #16 Alabama on Saturday (December 4th, 8 pm ET) at the Climate Pledge Arena, in Seattle, WA
- The Zags dropped two spots in the polls this week after a loss to #1 Duke, and an underwhelming victory over Tarleton State
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
It’s been a week to forget for Gonzaga. First, they fell to Duke in a mega-showdown featuring two of the best teams in the nation. Then, they barely survived a matchup versus 1-win Tarleton State, the 176th ranked team in the country.
The Bulldogs have since dropped from #1 to #3 in the AP Polls, and will look to get their season back on track Saturday (Dec. 4th) when they host #16 Alabama.
#16 Alabama vs #3 Gonzaga Odds
|Alabama Crimson Tide||OFF||+9.5 (-120)||O 160.5 (-110)|
|Gonzaga Bulldogs||OFF||-9.5 (+100)||U 160.5 (-110)|
Odds as of Dec. 3rd at DraftKings.
Gonzaga opened up as a 9.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 160.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 pm ET at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, with ESPN2 providing the coverage nation wide.
Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Analysis
The Zags ended up squeaking past Tarleton State 64-55, failing to cover the spread by 23 points. It was unquestionably their worst effort of the season, which was reflected in the box score. Gonzaga scored 27 points below their season average, and managed only 9 assists.
Gonzaga survives a monumental SCARE against Tarleton St. 😱
The Bulldogs were 32-point favorites. It would’ve been the largest D-1 men's basketball upset in at least the last 25 years. pic.twitter.com/MDGQngni5S
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 30, 2021
A game after turning the ball over 17 times against Duke, they coughed it up 16 times versus the Texans, who rank 126th in defensive efficiency per KenPom.
Senior guard Andrew Nembhard disappointed for the second consecutive game, following up a 6-point, 6 turnover game against the Blue Devils, with a 9-point, 3 turnover performance. Nembhard was just 4-for-12 from the field, while the Bulldogs shot 46%, which is 8 percentage points lower than their season average.
Rasir Bolton paced the offense with 17, while freshman phenom Chet Holmgren chipped in 15 points, 9 boards, and 4 blocks.
— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) November 30, 2021
If there’s one sliver lining, is that at least Gonzaga’s defense was sharp. They held Tarleton State to 37.5% from the field, while limiting an opponent below 58 points for the fourth time this season. The Zags are yielding just 62.5 points per game, and rank 12th in opponent effective field goal percentage.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis
Alabama meanwhile, enters Saturday on a two-game winning streak. Like Gonzaga, they sport a 6-1 record, but the quality of the opposition has been much different. Bama has faced just one team ranked inside the top-75, while the Bulldogs have squared off against three top-12 opponents.
If Alabama could just play Gonzaga in football and Georgia in basketball I like our chances a lot more
— Adam Weil (@AdamWeil22) December 2, 2021
Last time out, the Tide handled Miami 96-64, outscoring the Hurricanes by 29 points in the second half. Keon Ellis led the way with 22, while Jaden Shackelford added 15, and two other Alabama players reached double-figures.
The Tide shot 53.6% from the field, and 53.3% from three, finishing +16 in the assist department, while gobbling up 19 more rebounds. In the early going, Alabama ranks ninth in the nation in points per game, fifth in total rebounding, and 28th in effective field goal percentage.
— Alabama Men’s Basketball (@AlabamaMBB) December 2, 2021
Defensively, the numbers aren’t quite so pretty. Bama is 165th in opponent points per game, and are 208th at defending 2-point attempts. That spells trouble versus Gonzaga who shoots 66% from inside the three-point arc, the best mark in the nation.
Alabama vs Gonzaga Pick
Despite the offensive proficiency of both teams, unders have been a common theme in their contests this season. A big reason for that on the Gonzaga side is due to the fact that bettors associate the Zags with offense, allowing bookmakers to inflate the total on their contests.
— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) December 2, 2021
The under is 4-1 in Gonzaga home games this season, and 2-0 when the total is north of 155.5. Alabama on the other hand, has seen three of its past five games fall short of the total, and should see its offensive efficiency dip against a strong Bulldogs defense.
Pick: Under 160.5 (-110)