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Boise State vs San Diego State Odds and Picks (Jan. 22)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Jan 22, 2022 · 6:00 AM PST

Matt Bradley brings the call up court
San Diego State guard Matt Bradley plays against Michigan in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
  • San Diego State is a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday (Jan. 22nd) at 9:30 pm ET in Mountain West play
  • The Aztecs have won five straight, while the Broncos enter play riding an 11-game winning streak
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Our focus on Mountain West college hoops continues on Saturday (January 22nd), with what projects to be a fantastic affair. San Diego State (10-3, 2-0 MWC) hosts Boise State (14-4, 5-0 MWC) in a battle of two of the conference’s best teams.

Boise State vs San Diego State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Boise State Broncos +150 +4.5  (-110) O 120.5 (-110)
San Diego State Aztecs -181 -4.5  (-110) U 120.5 (-110)

Odds as of Jan 21st at BetMGM.

The hometown Aztecs opened up as a 4.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 120.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 pm ET at Viejas Arena, in San Diego, CA, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.

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San Diego Aztecs Betting Analysis

Saturday will mark San Diego State’s first action in two weeks. Each of their past three games have been postponed due to COVID issues within the program, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them start slow.

They haven’t played since January 8th, when they handed Colorado State its first and only loss of the season. The Aztecs have won five straight overall, but have played the fewest games of any Mountain West program.

They don’t have a bad defeat on their resume, suffering three losses to top-55 teams, but they also lack a signature win. Outside of the victory over the Rams, who rank 32nd, they also beat Saint Mary’s, who ranks 37th, but a pair of wins over a couple of mid-major contenders isn’t going to be enough for an at-large bid if they don’t take down their conference tournament.

San Diego State boasts a below-average offense, ranking 275th in points per game, and 273rd in effective field goal percentage. They win with defense. Only two programs in the country allow fewer points per game, while they also rank top-three in opponent effective field goal percentage.

They’ve held nine of their 13 opponents below 60 points, including two below 50 points. Last time out, they limited Colorado State to a season-low 49 points, and a dismal 27.9% field goal percentage.

What makes the Aztecs such a tough opponent is their toughness and experience. Seven of their top-eight rotational players are upperclassmen, with five of those players being seniors.

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Boise State Broncos Betting Analysis

The Broncos meanwhile, enter play on an 11-game winning streak. They’re 5-0 in conference play, and haven’t lost since November 30th.

Like San Diego State, they lack a signature win, with their top victories coming over Fresno State (#56), Washington State (#61), and Utah State (#71) last time out. Boise State squeaked past the Aggies 62-59, thanks to a Marcus Shaver Jr. three with 1.7 seconds remaining.

Similar to the Aztecs, the Broncos win primarily thanks to their defense, and that was the case against Utah State. They held the Aggies to 38.5% from the field, and their fourth lowest point total of the season.

Boise State ranks 10th in scoring defense, 14th in defensive rebound percentage, and 30th in opponent shooting efficiency.

Their offensive on the other hand, is not quite so impressive. They average only 68.2 points per contest, and shoot just 43.7% from the field.

One noticeable advantage they have over the Aztecs is in the rebounding department. They have an average rebounding differential of +11.2 during their winnings streak, while San Diego State has lost the battle on the glass in three consecutive outings.

Boise State vs San Diego State Pick

Given how well the Broncos are playing, and how much time the Aztecs have had off, 4.5-points seems too high.

Even when they were healthy, San Diego State struggled to cover games. They’re 7-6 ATS this season, and just 3-3 against the spread as a favorite of more than 3 points. Boise State is one of the best defenses they’ll have faced this season, making it hard to imagine their underwhelming offense is going to produce a big night.

As for the Broncos, they’ve covered in four straight games as an underdog, and are an impressive 5-1 straight up in true road games.

Pick: Boise State Broncos +4.5 (-110)

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