- San Diego State is a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday (Jan. 22nd) at 9:30 pm ET in Mountain West play
- The Aztecs have won five straight, while the Broncos enter play riding an 11-game winning streak
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Our focus on Mountain West college hoops continues on Saturday (January 22nd), with what projects to be a fantastic affair. San Diego State (10-3, 2-0 MWC) hosts Boise State (14-4, 5-0 MWC) in a battle of two of the conference’s best teams.
Boise State vs San Diego State Odds
|Boise State Broncos||+150||+4.5 (-110)||O 120.5 (-110)|
|San Diego State Aztecs||-181||-4.5 (-110)||U 120.5 (-110)|
Odds as of Jan 21st at BetMGM.
The hometown Aztecs opened up as a 4.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 120.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 pm ET at Viejas Arena, in San Diego, CA, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.Advertising Disclosure
San Diego Aztecs Betting Analysis
Saturday will mark San Diego State’s first action in two weeks. Each of their past three games have been postponed due to COVID issues within the program, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them start slow.
They haven’t played since January 8th, when they handed Colorado State its first and only loss of the season. The Aztecs have won five straight overall, but have played the fewest games of any Mountain West program.
In case you missed our 30-point destruction of No. 20 Colorado State yesterday, our largest margin of victory against a ranked opponent in program history, here are some of the highlights. #GoAztecs pic.twitter.com/AoEMhk1ySi
— San Diego State Men's Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) January 9, 2022
They don’t have a bad defeat on their resume, suffering three losses to top-55 teams, but they also lack a signature win. Outside of the victory over the Rams, who rank 32nd, they also beat Saint Mary’s, who ranks 37th, but a pair of wins over a couple of mid-major contenders isn’t going to be enough for an at-large bid if they don’t take down their conference tournament.
San Diego State boasts a below-average offense, ranking 275th in points per game, and 273rd in effective field goal percentage. They win with defense. Only two programs in the country allow fewer points per game, while they also rank top-three in opponent effective field goal percentage.
— San Diego State Men's Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) January 8, 2022
They’ve held nine of their 13 opponents below 60 points, including two below 50 points. Last time out, they limited Colorado State to a season-low 49 points, and a dismal 27.9% field goal percentage.
What makes the Aztecs such a tough opponent is their toughness and experience. Seven of their top-eight rotational players are upperclassmen, with five of those players being seniors.
SIGN UP BONUS
Get a Risk-Free Bet Up to $1,000
Boise State Broncos Betting Analysis
The Broncos meanwhile, enter play on an 11-game winning streak. They’re 5-0 in conference play, and haven’t lost since November 30th.
Like San Diego State, they lack a signature win, with their top victories coming over Fresno State (#56), Washington State (#61), and Utah State (#71) last time out. Boise State squeaked past the Aggies 62-59, thanks to a Marcus Shaver Jr. three with 1.7 seconds remaining.
ＢＩＧ ＴＩＭＥ ＢＵＣＫＥＴ ＳＨＡＶＥ#BoiseState senior G Marcus Shaver, Jr. delivers yet another big shot for the Broncos, this one a game-winner with 1.7 seconds left.
— Jay Tust (@KTVBSportsGuy) January 21, 2022
Similar to the Aztecs, the Broncos win primarily thanks to their defense, and that was the case against Utah State. They held the Aggies to 38.5% from the field, and their fourth lowest point total of the season.
Boise State ranks 10th in scoring defense, 14th in defensive rebound percentage, and 30th in opponent shooting efficiency.
— Patrick Kosena (@PKosena) January 21, 2022
Their offensive on the other hand, is not quite so impressive. They average only 68.2 points per contest, and shoot just 43.7% from the field.
One noticeable advantage they have over the Aztecs is in the rebounding department. They have an average rebounding differential of +11.2 during their winnings streak, while San Diego State has lost the battle on the glass in three consecutive outings.
Boise State vs San Diego State Pick
Given how well the Broncos are playing, and how much time the Aztecs have had off, 4.5-points seems too high.
Even when they were healthy, San Diego State struggled to cover games. They’re 7-6 ATS this season, and just 3-3 against the spread as a favorite of more than 3 points. Boise State is one of the best defenses they’ll have faced this season, making it hard to imagine their underwhelming offense is going to produce a big night.
Is a dream season unfolding for Boise State? Broncos come back and beat Utah State. Will take an 11-game winning streak into Saturday's game against San Diego State.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) January 21, 2022
As for the Broncos, they’ve covered in four straight games as an underdog, and are an impressive 5-1 straight up in true road games.
Pick: Boise State Broncos +4.5 (-110)