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Clemson vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Picks for Elite Eight Matchup

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Basketball

Updated Mar 30, 2024 · 12:35 PM PDT

Clemson Tigers center PJ Hall and guard Joseph Girard III
Mar 28, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Clemson Tigers center PJ Hall (24) and guard Joseph Girard III (11) react in the first half against the Arizona Wildcats in the semifinals of the West Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
  • The #6 Clemson Tigers and #4 Alabama Crimson Tide meet in the 2024 Elite Eight on Saturday, March 30
  • The latest March Madness odds favor the Crimson Tide by a slim margin over the Tigers
  • Read below for Clemson vs Alabama prediction, odds and picks for the Elite Eight

The No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers will face off against the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide in an intriguing Elite Eight matchup on Saturday at 8:49 p.m. EDT at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The game will be televised on TBS.

Alabama enters as a slight 3.5-point favorite despite Clemson dominating the recent head-to-head. The over/under has been set at 163.5 points for a matchup featuring the Tide’s top-ranked offense.

Let’s get into our Clemson vs Alabama prediction, as we analyze the odds and determine the best picks to make for the Elite Eight.

Clemson vs Alabama Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Clemson +3.5 (-110) +145 Over 163.5 (-115)
Alabama -3.5 (-110) -175 Under 163.5 (-105)

In the Clemson vs Alabama odds for Saturday, the Crimson Tide are -175 moneyline favorites, giving them an implied win probability of 63%.

These two teams last met in November, with Clemson pulling out an 85-77 victory in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers have won five of the last six meetings dating back to 2008.

 

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Clemson vs Alabama Head-to-Head Stats

Clemson Tigers
VS
Alabama Crimson Tide
19 KenPom Ranking 12
117.7 (24) KP Adj Off Efficiency 125.6 (4)
98 (32) KP Adj Def Efficiency 102.5 (102)
66.4 (227) KP Adj Tempo 72.8 (9)
+11.75 (17) KP Strength of Schedule +14.07 (3)
+4.95 (68) KP Non-Conference SOS +9.51 (16)
35.25% (112) 3P% 36.80% (28)
78.71% (9) FT% 71.54% (20)
79.23 (79) PPG 90.69 (1)
77.23 (79) Opp PPG 81.09 (356)
46.82% (57) Field Goal % 77.38% (28)
36.43 (121) Total Rebounds 39.80 (19)

Clemson Betting Analysis

Clemson (24-11, 11-10 ACC) is making its first Elite Eight appearance since 1980 after upsetting No. 2 seed Arizona 77-72 in the Sweet 16. The Tigers were led by Chase Hunter, who scored 18 points to go along with seven rebounds and five assists. PJ Hall also had a strong game with 17 points and 8 rebounds.

Clemson’s defense has been stifling in the tournament, holding opponents to just 41% shooting. The Tigers rank 33rd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. While their opponent Saturday plays at a fast pace, the Tigers rank 267th in the country in adjusted tempo.

On the season, Hall leads Clemson in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounding (6.5 rpg). Hunter is the team’s second-leading scorer at 14.8 ppg over the last 10 games. As a team, the Tigers are averaging 73.3 points on 46.5% shooting over their last 10 contests.

Clemson will need its defense to continue to shine against Alabama’s high-powered attack. The Tigers have allowed just 56 points to New Mexico, 64 to Baylor and 72 to Arizona so far in the tournament. The Tigers have been betting underdogs in all three games thus far.

Alabama Betting Analysis

Alabama (24-11, 13-6 SEC) punched its ticket to the Elite Eight for just the second time in program history by knocking off No. 1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. The Crimson Tide were paced by a season-high 24 points from Grant Nelson, while Rylan Griffen and Aaron Estrada each chipped in 19.

For the season, Alabama boasts the nation’s top-scoring offense at 90.7 points per game and has outscored opponents by an average of 9.6 ppg. Mark Sears is the Tide’s leading scorer at 21.4 ppg while shooting 42.9% from three-point range. Estrada is averaging 15.1 ppg over the last 10 games on 48.9% shooting.

Alabama plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country, averaging 76.7 possessions and ranking 9th in Ken Pom’s adjusted tempo metrics. Their ability to score in bunches has led to the “over” hitting in 12 of their last 14 contests.

The Crimson Tide have been turning a profit for bettors this season, covering the number in 20 of their 35 games so far. They’ve also covered in all three games of the tournament, including as 4.5-point underdogs against UNC.

Clemson vs Alabama Prediction

This game will likely come down to whether Clemson’s stingy defense can disrupt Alabama’s rhythm just enough. The Tide want to speed up the pace and score in transition, while the Tigers prefer a slower, more methodical approach.

If Clemson can control the tempo and get enough offense from Hall and Hunter, the Tigers could be headed to their first Final Four in program history. But if Alabama is clicking on all cylinders, the Tide’s firepower may simply be too much to overcome.

For our Clemson vs Alabama prediction, we like the under in this game. The regular-season meeting resulted in an 85-77 final score, but there is a key difference in playstyle between the regular season and the Elite 8.

The under has hit in eight of the Tigers’ past 10 games, and we expect this trend to continue as Clemson aims to slow this game down. Bet on the two teams falling under the posted total of 163.5 points.

CLEM vs ALA Pick:

  • Under 163.5 Points (-105)

 

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