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Final Four Odds: Duke Shorter Than Even Money to Make Final Four

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Basketball

Jan 5, 2019 · 12:49 PM PST

The Final Four odds show that Duke is at -125 to qualify.
  • Blue Devils now at -125 to make the Final Four
  • 10 Teams At +450 Or Shorter
  • Houston, N.C. State Offer Value Among Longshots

The Duke Blue Devils have been the talk of the town in college basketball so far this season. They’ve already racked up some impressive wins and that’s led to the oddsmakers listing them at -125 to qualify for the Final Four.

Let’s take a closer look their hot start and delve into who might be joining them as the Final Four teams left standing later on this March.

2019 Odds To Reach Final Four

Player Odds To Make 2019 Final Four
Duke -125
Michigan +185
Gonzaga +250
Virginia +275
Kansas +275
Tennessee +300
Nevada +400

*Follow the link in the table to see all options

Blue Devils Impressive So Far

The Blue Devils entered Saturday as the No. 1 team in the country at 11-1. According to the Associated Press, they are the only team in the country right now to have more than 1500 points (Michigan is No. 2 at 1478). It’s easy to see why everyone is in love with Duke: there’s the school’s pedigree, Freshmen Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish are outstanding and they’ve had little trouble so far this season. This precocious Duke team already has wins over No. 2 Kentucky, No. 8 Auburn and No. 12 Texas Tech. Their lone loss was a two-point shortcoming versus No. 3 Gonzaga on a neutral court.

We’ve still got a lot to learn about this Duke program – especially since ACC play begins on Saturday. They still have seven games versus teams in the Top 25 and that will tell the story as to whether they deserve to be this type of favorite long-term. As of now, they definitely do.

Who’ll Join Duke in the Final Four?

As we take a look at the college basketball futures as of right now, there are 10 teams at +450 or shorter in terms of the “Making The Final Four” prop. The implied probability of those teams being the three finalists is 304%, which leaves less than one spot for the field.

The 10 teams are: Duke, Michigan, Gonzaga, Virginia, Kansas, Tennessee, Nevada, Kentucky, North Carolina and Auburn. In total, there are 13 teams that are 12/1 or shorter and 12 of the 13 are in Ken Pomeroy’s highly-regarded ratings with Virginia Tech, who is No. 8, as the only team left out. Virginia Tech earned another quality win on Saturday, though, knocking off a 9-3 Boston College side.

It’s worth noting that Michigan (14-0), Virginia (11-0) and Nevada (13-0) are the only three undefeateds in the AP Top 10 right now.

Any Value on a Longshot?

All of the aforementioned teams are at 45/1 or shorter to win the NCAA Tournament outright. Is there anyone beyond that mark that’s worth a flier to win it all?

Houston (+12500 to win March Madness) is getting little respect because they play in the AAC but they are 14-0 and are ranked 19th in the country. They’ve collected some decent wins over LSU and No. 18 Oregon. Few people have faith in non-power program schools, though.

Houston (+12500 to win March Madness) is getting little respect because they play in the AAC but they are 14-0 and are ranked 19th in the country.

NC State (+10000) is another team that has looked good so far. They don’t have a strong history in the NCAA Tournament but so far, the Wolfpack have quality wins at Miami and home No. 7 Auburn, and their lone loss is a four-point defeat at Wisconsin.

Murray State (+30000) is an option for those who like their long dart throws. They are 10-2 but the losses were by six to an Alabama team that just beat Kentucky and at No. 7 Auburn. Ja Morant, who is one of the best players in the country and he’ll be a lottery pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, can lead this team on a run.

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