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Florida State vs Michigan Odds and Pick

John Hyslop

by John Hyslop in College Basketball

Updated Mar 27, 2021 · 11:05 AM PDT

Rayquan Evans Florida State Seminoles
Florida State guard Rayquan Evans (0) drives to the basket against North Carolina in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Tallahassee, Fla., Monday, Feb. 3, 2020. Florida State defeated North Carolina 65-59. (AP Photo/Mark Wallheiser)
  • The Florida State Seminoles do battle with the Michigan Wolverines in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament Sunday
  • Both teams have the look of a squad that could win the entire tournament 
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet, below

The Sweet 16 at the 2021 NCAA Tournament will continue at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Sunday, March 28th, when the #4 Florida State Seminoles (18-6, 11-4 ACC) meet the #1 Michigan Wolverines (22-4, 14-3 Big Ten). Tip-off is scheduled  for 5:00 pm ET.

These schools have only met four times since the 1996-97 season with Michigan taking three of the four meetings. The most recent meeting was in the West Region finals of the 2018 NCAA Tournament when the Wolverines eliminated the Seminoles 58-54. This time around the odds are showing Michigan as 3.5-point favorites.

Florida State vs Michigan Odds (Updated)

Team Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
Florida State Seminoles +2 (-109) +112 O 143.5 (-109)
Michigan Wolverines -2 (-112) -132 U 143.5 (-112)

Odds updated  at 2:04 pm ET on March 27th. The point spread opened at 3.5 but has been bet down to 2.

Florida State reached this round by taking care of the Colorado Buffaloes 71-53, easily covering the one-point spread. Top-seeded Michigan had a tougher time with LSU winning 86-78. They were ahead by one point at halftime but turned on the jets in the second half to win comfortably.

Florida State Is Dominant

The Seminoles came into their matchup with the Colorado Buffalos as slight one-point favorites which turned out to be a mistake by the books. Florida State looked a bit rusty in the first half as they led by just four at the break after only scoring 24 points in the first half. The tides turned dramatically in the second half as the Seminoles couldn’t seem to miss. Towards the end of the game, they were just toying with the Buffaloes emotions.

According to KenPom, the Buffaloes were the better team coming into this one as they were ranked 10th while the Seminoles were 13th. This one was a reminder that games are played on the court and not spreadsheets as the Seminoles held the Buffaloes 13th most efficient offense (adjusted for opponent) to 35% shooting from the floor. Colorado did themselves no favors at the free-throw line as they only connected on 63% of their attempts after finishing second in the country in that metric in the regular season.

Michigan Is a Wagon

The Michigan Wolverines are one of only three teams in the country to finish top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (adjusted for opponent) this season. Only FSU and Gonzaga remain from that list after Illinois was eliminated by Loyola Chicago. They needed every bit of effort on both sides of the ball to get past the LSU Tigers last round.

The beginning of this one wasn’t great for the Wolverines as they didn’t seem to have an answer for anything the Tigers were doing on offense. In fact, halfway through the first half it looked like LSU could run away with the game. But with Michigan being Michigan, they were able to get some control and took a narrow one-point lead into the locker rooms at halftime.

The Wolverines came out firing in the second half and ended up not only winning but also covering the 5-point spread. Eli Brooks and Chaundee Brown both chipped in 21 points in the winning effort.

Best Betting Angle

The best place for any sports bettor to be on Sunday at 5pm ET will be on their couch watching this game on CBS. This game should be a war and worth every second spent watching. For all the great players on the court on both sides, the Elite Eight appearance at stake could all come down to who is not on the court.

Michigan lost Isaiah Livers for the tournament and it could haunt them in this game. He was a leader on and off the court as well as a reliable three-point shooter. In a war such as this, teams need a guy like Livers on their side.

The other glaring issue for the Wolverines could be turnovers. They committed a turnover on 19% of their possessions against LSU which won’t fly against Florida State. LSU’s guards were bigger than the ones the Wolverines’ miniature guards were used to seeing which seemed to be the problem. The Seminoles present a similar situation since their shortest rotational player is 6’4″. They could easily win this game straight up but taking the points seems like the move here.

The pick: Florida State +3.5  (-114)

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