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Florida State vs North Carolina Predictions, Player Props & Odds (March 14)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 13, 2024 · 10:17 PM PDT

North Carolina Tar Heels center Armando Bacot and Florida State Seminoles forward De'Ante Green face to face
Jan 27, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels center Armando Bacot (5) and Florida State Seminoles forward De'Ante Green (5) exchange words as forward Jamir Watkins (2) intervenes during the first half at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
  • North Carolina and Florida State meet in the 2024 ACC Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday, March 14
  • UNC has already beaten the Noles twice this season
  • See the North Carolina vs Florida State odds, predictions, and player props for the early tip of Thursday afternoon

The ACC regular-season champion North Carolina Tar Heels (25-6, 17-3 ACC, 2-3 neutral, 18-13 ATS) look to move a step closer to a conference tournament title, as well, on Thursday afternoon when they face the #9 Florida State Seminoles (17-15, 10-10 ACC, 3-1 neutral, 16-15-1 ATS) at Capital One Arena in Washington DC.

The first of four ACC Tournament quarterfinal games on Thursday, UNC vs FSU is scheduled to tip-off at 12:00 pm ET. With FSU playing its second game in as many days, oddsmakers five the Tar Heels a big edge in the Florida State vs UNC odds.

Florida State vs North Carolina Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Florida State Seminoles +10.5 (-115) +400 Over 153.5 (-115)
North Carolina Tar Heels -10.5 (-105) -525 Under 153.5 (-105)

North Carolina is a 10.5-point neutral-court favorite as of late Wednesday night, and -525 on the moneyline to win straight-up. The Noles come back at +400 to pull off the upset, while the game total is at 153.5.

UNC won both regular-season meetings, but both were single-digit affairs: 78-70 in Chapel Hill on Dec. 2, and 75-68 in Tallahassee on Jan. 27. The games averaged just 145.5 total points between them.

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Odds as of March 13 at ESPN Bet. Claim the ESPN Bet North Carolina promo to bet on the UNC vs FSU.

No matter what happens on Thursday, North Carolina is safely in the 2024 March Madness bracket. But they likely need to win the ACC Tournament in order to climb up to the #1 seed line. FSU is playing for its season. At 17-15 overall this year, they have little to no chance of an at-large bid and must secure the ACC’s autobid to reach the NCAA Tournament.

UNC Brings Six-Game Win Streak into ACC Tournament

North Carolina won the ACC by two games over archrival Duke thanks to a season-ending six-game win streak which included an 84-79 victory at Cameron Indoor on the final day of the season. That win made it a two-game sweep over the Blue  Devils this year. UNC’s only conference setbacks came at Georgia Tech (74-73), at Syracuse (86-79), and at home to Clemson (80-76).

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The Tar Heels went a combined 4-0 against the other three teams that secured top-four seeds (and double-byes) in the ACC Tournament: Duke, Virginia, and Pitt.

Senior guard RJ Davis led the team in scoring at 21.1 PPG, increasing his average from 16.1 PPG last year and more than making up for the departure of last season’s leading scorer, Caleb Love, to Arizona. Fellow senior Armando Bacot (13.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG) wasn’t as productive this season, scoring-wise, but continued to be a monster on the glass for a UNC team that sits 14th in the nation in defensive rebounding.

Overall, UNC sits eighth in the nation in overall efficiency at KenPom, 25th on offense and a suffocating fifth on defense.

Florida State Mounts Second-Half Comeback Against Va. Tech

FSU looked like it may be one-and-done in the ACC Tournament on Wednesday afternoon, falling behind favored Virginia Tech 27-19 early. But the Noles managed to close the gap to just two by halftime and started the second on a 15-5 run.  Another 11-0 run with just over five minutes to play put FSU on top for good, and they wound up with a ten-point victory (86-76) over the Hokies despite being 4.5-point underdogs.

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Leading scorer Jamir Watkins (15.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) was sensational, dropping a career-best 34 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field and a 14-of-17 performance from the free-throw line, while also grabbing a game-high 11 rebounds. Thanks mostly to Watkins, FSU finished with a massive 35-24 edge on the glass.

The Noles will need more of that from Watkins on Thursday. FSU ranked just 175th in the nation in offensive-rebound percentage and a truly concerning 318th on defense.

Florida State faced eight teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 this season and managed just a 2-6 record in those eight games. Their only top 50 wins came against Colorado (77-71 OT) in Daytona Beach on Nov. 21 and at home against Wake Forest (87-82) on Jan. 9. They’ve lost their last five against top-50 teams: UNC, Duke, Pitt, and Clemson twice, with three of the five losses by double-digits.

FSU vs UNC Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Armando Bacot (UNC) 13.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 9.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) OFF OFF
Baba Miller (FSU) 7.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) OFF 0.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100)
Cameron Cohen (FSU) 10.5 (Ov +105 | Un -145) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) OFF OFF
Cormac Ryan (UNC) 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140) OFF 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115)
Darin Green Jr (FSU) 10.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) OFF 1.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100)
Elliot Cadeau (UNC) 7.5 (Ov -150 | Un +110) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) 4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) OFF
Harrison Ingram (UNC) 12.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 10.5 (Ov +105 | Un -145) 2.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150)
Jamier Watkins (FSU) 15.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 5.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) OFF 1.5 (Ov +160 | Un -215)
RJ Davis (UNC) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 2.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105)

College basketball player props as of March 13 at DraftKings. 

With a point total of 20.5 O/U, Davis has the highest number on the board by a full five points on Thursday. Noles leading scorer Jamier Watkins is next at 15.5 O/U.

Curiously, UNC’s leading rebounder, Armando Bacot, is listed with a rebound total of 9.5, despite averaging 10.1 RPG, while the team’s second-leading rebounder, Harrison Ingram, is at 10.5, despite averaging 9.3 RPG for the season.

Florida State vs UNC Predictions

The Noles were impressive in Wednesday’s win over Virginia Tech, and they played UNC tough close in both regular-season meetings. FSU held a halftime lead in both games and kept both to single-digit margins.

UNC has its share of blowout victories this season, but they only have one double-digit victory in their last five games (84-51 vs Notre Dame on March 5). With their season on the line, expect another big effort from the Seminoles on Thursday.

FSU vs UNC picks:

  • Florida State +10.5 (-115)
  • Bacot over 9.5 rebounds (-125)
  • Ingram under 10.5 rebounds (-145)


Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 19-20 (-2.73 units)
  • Moneyline: 3-11 (-10.68 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 7-2 (+4.93 units)
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