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Florida vs Auburn Odds & Predictions for 2024 SEC Championship

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 16, 2024 · 9:34 PM PDT

Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome dribbles while Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr defends
Feb 10, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome (4) dribbles the ball against Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) during the first half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Florida Gators face the #12 Auburn Tigers in the 2024 SEC title game on Sunday
  • Florida won the only regular-season meeting handily in Gainesville
  • Below, see the Florida Gators vs Auburn Tigers odds, picks, and props for the SEC championship game on March 17

The #12 Auburn Tigers (26-7, 13-5 SEC, 6-1 neutral, 20-13 ATS) fell one game short of an SEC regular-season championship, but they can attenuate that disappointment on Sunday when they meet the Florida Gators (24-10, 11-7 SEC, 6-2 neutral, 16-17-1 ATS) in the SEC Tournament finale.

Florida vs Auburn is scheduled to tip-off at 1:00 pm ET at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. The Gators won the only regular-season meeting between the two (81-65 in Florida) but Auburn is listed as a significant favorite in the rematch.

Florida vs Auburn Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Florida Gators +5.5 (-108) +200 Over 155.5 (-112)
Auburn Tigers -5.5 (-112) -245 Under 155.5 (-108)

The Tigers are 5.5-point chalk over the Gators in Sunday’s college basketball odds and -245 moneyline favorites. Florida is a +200 underdog to win straight up.

Odds as of March 17 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo to wager on Sunday’s college basketball action. 

Both teams are safely in the March Madness field no matter who wins on Sunday, but this game will have massive seeding implications. Auburn sits fifth in the Net Rankings and would have a serious shot at a #1 seed if it can add an SEC Tournament title to its resume.

Florida was a #9 seed in SBD’s latest projected March Madness bracket. The Gators have likely already moved to a #7 with their trio of wins in the SEC Tournament and will move a line or two higher if they can beat Auburn on Sunday.

Gators Start Fresh in SEC Tournament

Florida ended the regular season losing two of three and going 3-3 in its last six, including a forgettable 79-78 loss at Vanderbilt on the final day of the season. But all of that became a distant memory once the SEC Tournament started. The Gators got past 12th-seeded Georgia (85-80) in the second round, dominated third-seeded Alabama (102-88) in the quarterfinals, and then edged out seventh-seeded Texas A&M (95-90) in last night’s semis.

Leading scorer Walter Clayton Jr (17.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.6 APG) has averaged 20.3 PPG in the past three games, but it was sophomore Denzel Aberdeen (2.6 PPG) paced the Gators with a career-best 20 points off the bench in yesterday’s win over the Aggies.

YouTube video

Florida’s 102-point performance against the Tide in the quarterfinals was the fourth time this season the Gators have reached triple-digits (though two of those game in OT). Florida now has the 13th-most-efficient offense in the nation and is playing at the 18th-fastest tempo.

The Gators never let Auburn have a sniff when they met at Exactech Arena  in Gainesville on Feb. 10. Florida raced out to a 26-9 lead in the first 11 minutes and led by as many as 29 in the second half en route to an 81-65 win. The Gators didn’t shoot particularly well (40.3% from the floor and 33.3% from three) but benefited from the Tigers going a horrendous 3-of-17 from beyond the arc and more than doubling-up Florida in turnovers (15 to 7).

Auburn was also uncharacteristically poor from the free-throw line in the first meeting. Connecting at a 75% clip for the season (64th), they were just 14-of-26 (53.8%) against the Gators, while UF went 20-of-26 (76.9%), well above its season average of 71.1%.

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Strong Second Half Leads Auburn Past Mississippi State

The Tigers were done a favor by Mississippi State, who ousted top-seeded Tennessee in the quarterfinals, and Auburn didn’t let it go to waste. After a back-and-forth first which saw the teams tied at 31-31 at the break, the Tigers started the second on a 12-4 run and never let Mississippi State closer than three points thereafter.

YouTube video

Johni Broome (16.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.1 APG) had a relatively quiet night with just 10 points and three rebounds, but he was a formidable presence in the post with three blocks and was a big part of why the Bulldogs shot just 41.1% from the field.

Chad Baker-Mazara had a team-high 14 points against Mississippi State but was just one of five Tigers in double-figures as Auburn shot 50% from the floor.

With Broome leading the way, Auburn currently sits 10th in offensive efficiency, fifth in defensive efficiency, and fourth overall out of all 362 DI teams (21 spots better than Florida).

Florida vs Auburn Prediction

The Auburn team that showed up for the first meeting between these teams is a shadow of the Tigers that have been on display in Nashville (and, indeed, for the vast majority of the season). Auburn is one of the most-balanced and best-coached teams in the nation, and Broome is one of the preeminent talents in the college game this year.

That said, Florida is no pushover. Todd Golden’s team has four players averaging at least 11.3 PPG and has myriad ways to score. They only lost four games this year by more than five points, and I expect the SEC title game to be a highly competitive affair.

Florida vs Auburn pick: Florida +5.5 (-108) – two units


Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 20-22 (-3.84 units)
  • Moneyline: 4-11 (-5.06 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 11-4 (+5.15 units)
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