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Fresno State vs UNLV Odds and Picks (Jan. 14)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Jan 14, 2022 · 6:00 AM PST

Orlando Robinson looks for a teammate to pass to
Fresno State's Orlando Robinson (10) plays against UNLV in an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
  • UNLV is a 1-point favorite over Fresno State on Friday (Jan. 14th) at 11 pm ET in Mountain West play
  • The Rebels are 0-6 versus teams ranked inside the top-100 this season
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Friday’s college hoops slate features only 11 games, but the action will continue into the wee hours of the morning. That’s because UNLV hosts Fresno State in a Mountain West Conference tilt that doesn’t tip-off until 11 pm ET.

Fresno State vs UNLV Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Fresno State Bulldogs OFF +1 (-110) O 127 (-110)
UNLV Rebels OFF -1 (-110) U 127 (-110)

Odds as of Jan 13th at FanDuel.

The Rebels opened up as a 1-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 127. The Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV will play host to the contest, while FS1 will provide the broadcast coverage.

UNLV Rebels Betting Analysis

UNLV (9-6, 1-1 MWC) bounced back from one of its worst shooting performances of the season two games ago versus San Diego State, by trouncing New Mexico 85-59 on Tuesday.

Donovan Williams led the offense with 29 points, while Bryce Hamilton chipped in 17. The Rebels shot 45.2% from the field, while absolutely dominating on the glass. They outrebounded the Lobos by 15, racking up 12 offensive boards along the way. They also put up seven more assists and made 12 more trips to the free throw line in the convincing victory.

At the other end of the floor, it was total domination as well. They held New Mexico to 18 points below its season average, while also forcing 15 turnovers.

Before we get to excited about Tuesday’s performance, let’s not lose sight of the big picture. UNLV is neither a strong offensive or defensive team, ranking 206th in points per game, and 109th in scoring defense.

The Rebels have padded their record against bad teams, and the victory over the Lobos is another example of that. New Mexico ranks outside the top-200 this season. UNLV is 9-0 versus teams ranked outside the top-100, but 0-6 versus teams ranked inside the top-100.

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Analysis

If that last stat has you leaning Fresno State in this matchup, you wouldn’t be wrong. The Bulldogs rank 60th in overall efficiency per KenPom, 62 spots higher than the Rebels.

Fresno State (11-4, 1-1 MWC) is coming off a 79-59 victory over San Jose State, in just their second conference game of the season. Each of the their three previous contests were postponed due to COVID, but they showed no rust against the Spartans.

Orlando Robinson led the offense with a season-high 31 points and 12 rebounds, while Anthony Holland poured in a career-high 20 points. Fresno State shot 52.5% from the field, and 37.5% from three, while committing only 5 turnovers.

They outrebounded San Jose State 39-25, and gobbled up 12 offensive boards. Defensively, they held the Spartans to 42% from the field, and their second lowest point total of the season.

Like UNLV, the Bulldogs’ offense isn’t an elite unit, but the same cannot be said about its defense. Fresno State ranks second in scoring defense in the nation, and 29th in opponent shooting percentage. They’ve held nine of their 15 opponents below 60 points, and have yielded 70 points once all season.

Fresno State vs UNLV Pick

In addition to being ranked higher in overall efficiency than UNLV, Fresno State also grades out better offensively and defensively.

The last four games between these conference rivals have been decided by a single possession, and while oddsmakers project another close battle, the Bulldogs look like a screaming value to me.

They’re 4-2 against the spread over their past six, and have actually beaten a couple decent teams in UC Irvine and Santa Clara.

In addition to being winless versus top-100 competition, the Rebels are just 1-5 ATS in those contests, and 4-6 against the spread overall at home.

Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +1 (-110)

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