Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Odds, Predictions & Player Props for WCC Championship Game 2024

• Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s meet in the WCC title game for the third straight season
• The teams split their regular-season meetings, each winning on the other’s court
• See the Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s odds, player props, and predictions for the 2024 West Coast Conference championship

Playing their “annual” third game of the season, the #19 Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-6, 14-2 WCC, 4-1 neutral, 15-15 ATS) square off with the #22 Saint Mary’s Gaels (25-7, 15-1 WCC, 2-2 neutral, 18-14 ATS) in the 2024 WCC title game on Tuesday, March 12, at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

Both teams used big second halves to win and cover the spread in their semifinal contests last night. Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s split their regular-season meetings, the Gaels winning at the Kennel on Feb. 3 (64-62) and Gonzaga returning the favor in Moraga on Mar. 2 (70-57).

The Zags, who carry a nine-game win streak into the WCC title game, are listed as 3.5-point chalk to win their fifth straight conference tournament. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Odds

The Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s moneyline odds list the Zags at -175 and the Gaels as +150 underdogs. The total is at just 138.5, thanks largely to Saint Mary’s top-20 defense and ultra-slow pace (358th in tempo).

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Both teams are comfortably in the March Madness bracket regardless of what happens tonight, but seeding is certainly at stake. The Zags were a #4 seed in SBD’s latest projected bracket while Saint Mary’s was a #5. Gonzaga likely earns a top-three seed with a win, while Saint Mary’s would have a good chance at a #4, which would come with preferential geographical treatment in the first two round.

Gonzaga Lights Up San Francisco to Reach 27th Straight WCC Championship Game

Favored by 8.5 points in their semifinal matchup against San Francisco last night, the Zags were unable to create any distance in the first half, taking a slimt 38-37 lead into the break. But the second half was a different story. Mark Few’s team started the second on a 26-10 run and wound up covering the spread in an 89-77 victory.

Point guard Ryan Nembhard – a Creighton transfer – was phenomenal in the win, scoring 16 points on 50% shooting with 12 assists and six rebounds. Nolan Hickman had a team-high 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the floor while 6’10 forward Ben Gregg had game-high 11 rebounds.

Three-point shooting was the biggest difference in the game. The Zags went 11-of-20 from three (55%) while the Dons were just 11-of-31 (36%). Gonzaga also double-up San Francisco from the line, going 16-of-23 while the Dons were just 8-of-11 from the stripe.

Continuing an encouraging trend from the regular season, Gonzaga committed just two turnovers in the entire game. The Zags rank 15th in the nation in turnover percentage (14.0%).

The Bulldogs ended the regular season with a 70-57 win at Saint Mary’s as 3.5-point road underdogs, getting 24 points and 10 rebounds from leading scorer Graham Ike, plus 20 points and 10 dimes from Nembhard.

Gonzaga enters the WCC title game rated 15th overall at KenPom, ninth on offense and 45th on defense.

Saint Mary’s Distances Santa Clara

Like the Zags, Saint Mary’s also found itself in a dogfight in the first half of their semifinal against Santa Clara. The game was knotted at 23s after 15 minutes before Saint Mary’s closed the first half on a 10-3 run. The Gaels picked up where they left off early in the second half, increasing the lead to double-digits (42-31) four minutes into the second stanza. The defensively-stout Gaels never let the Broncos within ten points thereafter.

Senior guard Alex Ducas had a team-high 21 points in the victory, just the second time this season he hit the 20-point plateau.

The Gaels were riding a 16-game win streak before the setback to Gonzaga on the final day of the regular season. Among those 16 wins was a 64-62 nailbiter against the Zags in Spokane, powered by a game-high 20 points from leading scorer Aidan Mahaney (13.6 PPG). Coming off a tremendous freshman campaign (13.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.0 APG), the sophomore hasn’t developed into the dominant force many expected, but has shown flashes of his tremendously high upside.

Saint Mary’s enters Tuesday rated 21st at KenPom and 18th at Haslametrics. They are basically the inverse of the Zags, statistically, rating 46th on offense and 16th on defense. Only four of the 362 DI teams in the country play at a slower pace on offense than the Gaels, who average 20.2 seconds per possession.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Player Props

College basketball player props as of March 12 at DraftKings. 

Coming off a subpar 10-point performance against the Dons last night, Gonzaga leading scorer Graham Ike has a game-high point total of 18.5, nearly two full points above his season average of 16.7 PPG. Mahaney (13.6 PPG) and Augustas Marciulionis (12.4 PPG) are the highest among the Gaels at 13.5.

Saint Mary’s leading rebounder, Mitchell Saxen is once again listed with a rebound total of 6.5, well under his season average of 7.3. Saxen led the Gaels with eight rebounds last night.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Prediction

I love the way the Zags are playing and the pieces Mark Few has put together. Nembhard has developed into one of the best point guards  in the country over the course of the season and sharp-shooting Nolan Hickman (14.2 PPG, 41.$ 3P%) provides a great backcourt complement. Up front, Ike and Anton Watson form one of the more formidable post duos in the nation.

But this is too many points to lay against a team that’s as experienced, balanced, and down-tempo as the Gaels. Expect relatively low-scoring back-and-forth battle throughout.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s picks:

• Saint Mary’s +3.5 (-105)
• Mitchell Saxen over 6.5 rebounds (-110)
• Graham Ike under 18.5 points (-110)
• Nembhard over 6.5 assists (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

• ATS: 17-19 (-3.59 units)
• Moneyline: 2-9 (-9.48 units)
• Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
• Player props: 4-2 (+2.20 units)