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Illinois vs Indiana Picks and Odds (Feb. 18)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Feb 17, 2023 · 7:55 PM PST

Indiana Hoosiers guard Jalen Hood-Schifino offensive foul against Michigan Wolverines guard Dug McDaniel
Feb 11, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Indiana Hoosiers guard Jalen Hood-Schifino (1) fouls Michigan Wolverines guard Dug McDaniel (0) in the second half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
  • Big Ten contenders Illinois and Indiana meet in a key game on Saturday, February 18
  • No. 14 Indiana is a 5.5-point home favorite against Illinois at Assembly Hall
  • Read below for Illinois vs Indiana odds, analysis and prediction

No. 14 Indiana (18-8, 9-6 Big Ten) is a 5.5-point home favorite against Illinois in a Big Ten game at noon ET Saturday on ESPN. The Hoosiers, 13-1 at home, had a three-game winning streak broken in a loss at Northwestern on Wednesday.

Illinois (17-8, 8-6 Big Ten) has lost two of its last three games after falling at Penn State on Tuesday. The Fighting Illini suffered their worst loss of the Big Ten season in the first meeting, falling 80-65 at home on Jan. 17.

Illinois vs Indiana Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Illinois Fighting Illini +5.5 (-118) +180 Over 143.5 (-110)
Indiana Hoosiers -5.5 (-104) -220 Under 143.5 (-110)

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Indiana is a 5.5-point home favorite against Illinois in what has been a streaky series recently. The Hoosiers have won and covered the last two, both in Champaign-Urbana, but Illinois was 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the previous four.

Prior to that, the series swung the Hoosiers’ way — 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. Indiana is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in the last nine at Bloomington, although Illinois has won and covered the last two.

The Illini are 15-9-1 ATS this season, 4-3 on the road. Indiana is 13-12-1 against the number, 10-4 at home. The Hoosiers are 14-11-1 against the over. Illinois is 11-13-1.

Indiana Seeking a Sweep

Indiana became the latest team to fall to new Big Ten favorite Northwestern — the new Big Ten favorite? — in a 64-62 loss in Evanston the last time out Wednesday.

The Hoosiers had been on a roll, winning eight of nine, but they fell behind by 21 points in the first half and could not make up the difference.

All-American candidate Trayce Jackson-Davis had another big games for the Hoosiers, with  23 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists, and freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino continued his strong play with 13 points and four rebounds.

With 6’9″ forward Jackson-Davis, (20.3 points, 11.3 rebounds), the 6’6″ Hood-Schifino (12.6 points, 4.1 assists) and 6’8″ Race Thompson (7.9 points, a team-high 5.1 boards) leading the way, the Hoosiers find themselves in a heated scrum to secure one of the four double byes in the Big Ten tournament. They are tied with Iowa and Maryland at 9-6 and also are tied with Illinois and Michigan State in the loss column.

Mike Woodson’s group plays both ends. The Hoosiers’ 49.5% field goal shooting is fifth in Division I, and aided by distance shooters Miller Kopp (7.9 points, 46 three-pointers) and Tamir Bates (7.0, 32). Both rank in the top 30 with a 54.7% effective field goal percentage.

Opponents are shooting 40.8%, 41st lowest in Division I.

Illinois Looks to Rebound

The Illini have had their greatest success with a lineup that includes Baylor transfer forward Dain Dainja, a change that added a physical presence to a frontline that gets many of its shots on the perimeter.

Illinois is 9-4 since the 6’9″, 270-pound Dainja (10.2 points, 6.0 rebounds) was promoted on Dec. 29 — the first seven games alongside with freshman point guard Sencire Harris and the last six with freshman point Jayden Epps (10.0 points).

The Illini’s only losses since are to Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa and Penn State, with only Indiana at home.

Illinois’s other three starters have remained constant — shooter/slasher Terrence Shannon Jr (17.0 points. 5.0 rebounds), 6’9″ forward Matthew Mayer (11.7, 5.0 and 6’10” big Coleman Hawkins, who averages 9.8 points and leads the team in rebounds (6.5) and assists (3.2).

Mayer has 51 three-pointers and Shannon has 42. With Dainja and Hawkins protecting the rim, the Illini rank third in Division I with 5.8 blocked shots per game.

The Illini are getting strong play from another freshman, 6’6″ wing Ty Rodgers. Rodgers had 11 points and eight rebounds against Penn State and has 26 points and 28 rebounds while averaging 20 minutes per game in the last four.

Illinois vs Indiana Prediction

Trends galore. Illinois is 9-2 ATS in its last 11, although one of the non-covers was the earlier home loss to Indiana and the other was the last time out at Penn State.

The road team in this series has won covered the last four meetings. Illinoi is 7-0 after a loss but has not won a Big Ten road game against a team with a winning league record. Indiana is 13-1 SU at home and has covered its last five home game since an 84-83 loss to Northwestern.

The game opened at 3.5, but the points are the play in this series.

  • Pick: Illinois +5.5 (-118) 
  • Season CBK: 38-22 ATS
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