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Iowa vs South Carolina Odds, Predictions & Player Props for the National Championship Game

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Apr 6, 2024 · 8:55 PM PDT

Iowa Hawkeyes guard Caitlin Clark celebrates with teammate Sydney Affolter
Iowa Hawkeyes guard Caitlin Clark (22) and Iowa Hawkeyes guard Sydney Affolter (3) celebrate after winning the Final Four round of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament between Iowa and UConn at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Friday, April 5, 2024 in Cleveland.
  • The Iowa Hawkeyes and South Carolina Gamecocks meet for the national championship on Sunday afternoon
  • Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes are sizable underdogs against the undefeated Gamecocks
  • Below, see the Iowa vs South Carolina predictions, player props, and odds

The matchup the entire nation was hoping for when the Women’s NCAA Tournament bracket was set has come to fruition. On Sunday afternoon at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes (34-4) will square off with Dawn Staley’s undefeated South Carolina Gamecocks (37-0) for the 2024 national championship.

Tip-off is scheduled for 3:00 pm ET and the unblemished Gamecocks are big favorites in the Iowa vs South Carolina odds.

Iowa vs South Carolina Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Iowa Hawkeyes +6.5 (-110) +225 O 160.5 (-110)
South Carolina Gamecocks -6.5  (-110) -278 U 160.5 (-110)

South Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite and -278 on the moneyline to complete the first perfect season since 2015-16 UConn. Iowa comes back as a +225 underdog to win the title while the total is sitting at 160.5.


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Hawkeyes Win Thriller Over UConn in Final Four

After a lethargic first half against #3 UConn in the Final Four – trailing 32-26 after the opening 20 minutes – Iowa used a big second-half effort to book its ticket to its second national championship game in as many seasons. The Hawkeyes led by as many as ___ in the second half against the Huskies and ultimately held on for a nail-biting 71-69 victory, despite a rare off-night from Clark.

The back-to-back Wade Trophy-winner had just 21 points on 7-of-18 shooting from the field and 3-of-11 from three. College basketball’s all-time leading scorer did add a team-high nine rebounds and seven assists, though.

YouTube video

Sophomore forward Hannah Stuelke had a team-high 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting, tying the second-highest output of her two-year career in Des Moines.

Iowa’s performance on the boards was a huge part of their comeback effort. The Hawkeyes finished the game +8 in rebounding (37-29) and +5 at the offensive end (11-6).

Iowa is just 2-3 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. They failed to cover the spread in their first two games: 91-65 over #16 Holy Cross as 38.5-point favorites, and 64-54 as 14.5-point chalk against #8 West Virginia.

They crushed the number in the Sweet 16, beating #5 Colorado 89-68 as 6.5-point favorites, and covered comfortably in their 94-87 win over #3 LSU in the Elite Eight as 2.5-point chalk. Iowa ATS bettors were left heartbroken in the Final Four as Caitlin Clark missed a free-throw in the final seconds that allowed UConn to cover as 2.5-point underdogs (71-69).

In last year’s national championship game against LSU, Iowa was routed 102-85 as 1.5-point favorites. An ugly 60-42 first half all but put the nail in the coffin of their title hopes. Clark finished with a game-high 30 points, while abysmal defense cost the Hawkeyes a championship.

South Carolina Dominates … Again

The Gamecocks’ Final Four matchup with #3 NC State was close for a half, as South Carolina held just a one-point lead after 20 minutes (32-31). But in the third quarter, Dawn Staley’s team showed its championship mettle, obliterating the Wolfpack 29-6 to establish an insurmountable 24-point lead heading into the final ten minutes.

Senior center and leading scorer Kamilla Cardoso (14.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG) had one of her best games of the season, dropping a team-high 22 points on 10-of-12 shooting with 11 rebounds and a pair of blocks. Sophomore forward Ashlyn Watkins was an absolute beat on the boards, with a game-high 20 rebounds, helping South Carolina finish with a huge +16 rebounding margin (44-28).

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Like the Hawkeyes, the Gamecocks are also 2-3 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament. They failed to cover an insane 55-point spread against #16 Presbyterian in the first round, though they came close in a 91-39 victory. In round two, they covered easily as 21.5-point chalk against #8 UNC (88-41). In the Sweet 16, Cardoso and company almost let the entirety of a 17-point halftime lead evaporate against #5 Indiana, holding on for a narrow 79-75 win as 17.5-point favorites.

The Gamecocks narrowly missed covering in the Elite Eight, beating #3 Oregon State 70-58 as 15.5-point favorites, but they got back in the ATS win column in the Final Four with a 78-59 win over NC State as 11.5-point chalk.

Iowa vs South Carolina Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Ashlyn Watkins (SC) 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 9.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) OFF OFF
Bree Hall (SC) 7.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) OFF OFF OFF
Caitlin Clark (Iowa) 32.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 7.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) 9.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)
Gabbie Marshall (SC) 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125) OFF OFF 1.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120)
Hannah Stuelke (Iowa) 13.5 (Ov  -115 | Un -105) 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) OFF OFF
Kamilla Cardoso (SC) 18.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 10.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) OFF
Kate Martin (Iowa) 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 7.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) OFF 1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)
MiLaysia Fulwiley (SC) 8.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) OFF OFF OFF
Raven Johnson (SC) 9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) OFF
Sydney Affollter (Iowa) 11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 6.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) OFF OFF
Te-Hina Paopao (SC) 10.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) OFF 2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 1.5 (Ov +145 | Un -175)

Iowa vs South Carolina player props from DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code for new users

After Friday’s subpar 21-point performance, which was 12.5 points under her total of 33.5, Clark’s over/under has been dropped just half a point to 32.5 against South Carolina’s suffocating defense.  Cardoso has the highest total among the Gamecocks at 18.5 and the highest rebound total at 10.5. Watkins, who had 20 rebounds against NC State, is not currently on the board.

Iowa vs South Carolina Prediction

I bet against South Carolina in the Final Four and felt like I’d handicapped the matchup well in the first 20 minutes. Even after the 19-point win, I was left with the impression that the Gamecocks are beatable.

I’m not crazy about Clark’s supporting cast. They play to their strengths and have learned how to complement Clark to the best of their abilities, but they lack South Carolina’s athleticism. They are also going to be considerably smaller. The 6’3 Stuelke will be asked to guard and battle on the glass with the 6’7 Cardoso. In a similar situation against Angel Reese in the Elite Eight, Stuelke got into foul trouble early and it almost cost the Hawkeyes dearly.

I’m not prepared to bet on an Iowa upset, but this is a big number, and I still don’t believe the Gamecocks are quite as dominant as this line suggests.

Iowa vs South Carolina picks:

  • Iowa +6.5 (-110)
  • Cardoso over 10.5 rebounds (-100)
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