Upcoming Match-ups

Michigan State vs Indiana Picks and Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 19, 2021 · 3:04 PM UTC

Trayce Jackson-Davis shooting a free throw
Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis (23) shoots during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Illinois, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
  • Michigan State (10-9, 4-9 Big Ten) battles Indiana (12-9, 7-7 Big Ten) on Saturday, Feb. 13, at 12:00 pm ET
  • The Spartans have been awful on the point spread of late, dropping seven of their past eight games
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

With conference tournaments lurking around the corner, it’s tuneup time for teams like Indiana and Michigan State, both of whom could still move in either direction in the Big Ten standings prior to the seedings being finalized.

On Saturday, Feb. 13, at 12:00 pm ET, the Hoosiers and Spartans face each other for the lone time this season, with Indiana favored by 5.5 points at home.

Indiana vs Michigan State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Michigan State +5.5 (+108) +220 Over 135 (-116)
Indiana -5.5 (-134) -270 Under 135 (-106)

Odds as of Feb. 19th at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

One of Indiana’s greatest strengths, ironically, pairs with one of its greatest weaknesses. The Hoosiers are excellent at getting to the foul line (42.9 percent free-throw-to-field-goal rate, fifth in NCAA Division I) but struggle to capitalize on it (66.5 percent free-throw shooting, 288th in D-I).

In four of their seven conference losses, the Hoosiers have shot below 65 percent from the foul line. That includes a 12-for-22 clip against #4 Ohio State last weekend en route to a 78-59 loss.

Were the Hoosiers in position to beat the Buckeyes otherwise? No, but they do possess a strong, balanced team. Indiana ranks inside the top 40 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. And in spite of the Ohio State loss, they’ve won three of four for the first time since Dec. 30-Jan. 10.

The Spartans have won and lost in bunches throughout the Big Ten season: they lost three; then they won two; then they lost four; then they won two; and now they’ve lost their past two.

Michigan State is the best team in D-I in terms of assist rate (68.2 percent of field goals are assisted), but overall their offense lacks in many ways. They rank outside the top-200 in effective field goal percentage, 2-pt. percentage and 3-pt. percentage.

Sometimes you just need guys to create their own shots and get buckets — and Michigan State hasn’t seen much of that this season (the losses of Xavier Tillman and Cassius Winston are looming large).

ATS Analysis

Indiana is 12-8-1 ATS, with an even 5-5 ATS mark at home. The Hoosiers have covered in their past two home games, including Wednesday’s 10-point win over Minnesota as seven-point favorites. The over has hit in four of their past six games.

Michigan State is just 4-15 ATS, including a 2-6 ATS road record. They have dropped seven of their past eight games ATS, four of which came as an underdog. The under has hit in seven of their past nine.

Head-to-Head Matchup

Indiana has covered in each of the past four matchups — all as underdogs — and won three of the past four matchups in straight up fashion. In their lone meeting last year, the Hoosiers topped the Spartans by four as four-point underdogs.

YouTube video

Both teams are missing pieces from last year, but none were as crucial as the aforementioned Winston and Tillman. Even though Indiana is the favorite this time around, they should be able to handle themselves just fine against this underwhelming Spartans squad.

Pick: Indiana -5.5 (-134)

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