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Mississippi State vs Alabama Predictions & Odds (March 10)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Mar 9, 2023 · 9:09 PM PST

Rylan Griffen drives to the hoop versus Texas A&M.
Mar 4, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Rylan Griffen (3) shoots over Texas A&M Aggies forward Andersson Garcia (11) during the second half at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
  • Alabama is laying 6.5 points in the Mississippi State vs Alabama odds in quarterfinal action at the SEC Tournament on Friday
  • The Crimson Tide defeated the Bulldogs twice during the regular season
  • Get the latest Mississippi State vs Alabama odds here, plus injury news and predictions

No. 4 Alabama makes its SEC Tournament debut on Friday, as the Crimson Tide (26-5, 16-2 SEC) face Mississippi State (21-11, 8-10 SEC) in quarterfinal action.

Alabama is the tournament’s top seed and favorite, and is looking to capture the conference crown for just the second time since 1991.

Online sportsbooks have been bullish on the Tide all season long, and Friday is no exception. Alabama opened up as lofty favorites in the college basketball odds, as they look to take down the Bulldogs for the third time in three tries.

Mississippi State vs Alabama Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.5 (-110) +230 O 135.5 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5 (-110) -275 U 135.5 (-110)

The Crimson Tide are currently laying 6.5 points, in a contest with a total of 135.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 pm ET at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

 

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Odds as of March 9 at DraftKings Sportsbook.ย 

Mississippi State vs Alabama Betting Trends

Alabama breezed through its SEC schedule this season, winning 16 of their first 17 games before dropping a meaningless season finale at Texas A&M. They currently project as a one seed in the March Madness bracket, and have the potential to earn the tournament’s number one overall ranking.

The Bulldogs on the other hand, appear to be locked into a double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament, something that was solidified with their opening round win over Florida.

Mississippi State gutted out a 69-68 overtime victory, getting a Tolu Smith bucket with four seconds left to secure the win.

The Bulldogs are a below average offense, averaging just 66.4 points per game, and that certainly doesn’t bode well versus the Crimson Tide. Alabama enters play with the fourth highest scoring offense in the country. They average 83 points per contest, with an effective field goal percentage of 52.8%.

Three players average in double figures, led by controversial star freshman Brandon Miller, who pours in 20 points per outing. The Tide have been one of the better offenses for a few seasons now, but what’s different this year is their play on defense.

Alabama yields just 69 points per game, and have held enemy shooters to the second lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation. No team is better at defending two-point attempts, while only two programs defend threes more successfully.

Strong defense is nothing new to Mississippi State, as their program is predicated on success at that end of the floor. The Bulldogs enter play yielding only 60.4 points per game, the seventh best mark in the country. Just two of their past 10 opponents have reached 70 points, while they held the Tide to 66 points in their last meeting.

Mississippi State vs Alabama Predictions

Mississippi State was unable to beat Alabama despite a strong defensive showing, and the Bulldogs haven’t exactly fared well against top notch competition this season. They’re 2-5 versus ranked teams, with an average point differential of -7.3.

The Crimson Tide meanwhile, have beaten up on lesser opposition, especially recently. Alabama has beaten each of the past five programs they’ve faced that have been ranked outside the top-45, posting an average margin of victory of 29 points.

They blew out Mississippi State earlier in the year, and while they struggled in the rematch, they did play very well after a slow start. The Tide outscored the Bulldogs by 10 points over the game’s final 20 minutes.

Alabama is the far more talented team, and is also well rested. They’ve been off since Saturday, while the Bulldogs just played a gruelling overtime game.

KenPom’s simulation has the Crimson Tide winning by eight and covering the spread, and I tend to agree. Alabama is 11-7 ATS in conference games this season, covering by an average of 15.8 points.

Their +13.3 average score margin for the season is the fifth best mark in the country, while Mississippi State has failed to cover in three straight, all versus teams that are nowhere near as strong as the Tide.

Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5 (-110)

 

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