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NC State vs Louisville Odds, Picks, Predictions & Player Props for ACC Tournament

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Mar 12, 2024 · 7:37 AM PDT

Louisville’s Ty-Laur Johnson dribbles up the court against NC State
Louisville’s Ty-Laur Johnson brings the ball p the court against NC State’s DJ Home Saturday afternoon in the KFC Yum Center. Jan. 13, 2024
  • NC State and Louisville meet in the first round of the 2024 ACC Tournament on Tuesday afternoon
  • Louisville finished last in the regular season at just 3-17, while the Wolfpack were 9-11
  • See the NC State vs Louisville odds, player props, and prediction for March 12

The 2024 ACC Tournament gets underway on March 12 with a trio of first-round games, including the 10th-seeded NC State Wolfpack (17-14, 9-11 ACC, 1-2 neutral, 13-17-1 ATS) facing the 16th-seeded Louisville Cardinals (8-23, 3-17 ACC, 0-2 neutral, 12-18-1 ATS) at 1:30 pm ET at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.

NC State was relegated to a bottom-six seed – and forced into first-round action – due to a season-ending four game losing streak. But the reeling Wolfpack are nonetheless heavy favorites over the ACC’s cellar-dwelling Cardinals.

NC State vs Louisville Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
NC State Wolfpack -9.5 (-115) -450 Over 148.5 (-115)
Louisville Cardinals +9.5 (-105) +360 Under 148.5 (-105)

The NC State vs Louisville odds favor the Wolfpack by 9.5 points on a neutral court in DC. NC State is also a heavy -450 moneyline favorite to advance to the second round, where seventh-seeded Syracuse awaits the winner.


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Odds as of March 12 at ESPN Bet. Claim the ESPN Bet North Carolina promo today.

In the latest the March Madness bracket projection, the ACC had six teams in (UNC, Duke, Virginia, Pitt, Clemson, and Wake Forest). Both NC State and Louisville need a miracle run to the ACC title to qualify for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Wolfpack Bring Four-Game Skid into ACC Tournament

NC State was poised to get a first-round bye – and was still in contention for a top-four seed – entering the final two weeks of the season at 9-7 in conference play. An ill-time four-game losing streak dropped the Wolfpack all the way to tenth.

The good news for NC State fans is that three of those four losses came on the road, and three were also against top-four teams in the conference (UNC, Duke, and Pitt). Only one of the setbacks came by double-digits (79-64 vs Duke), though the Wolfpack only managed to cover the spread once.

Head coach Kevin Keatts will certainly be preaching better start on Tuesday. Last time out, his Wolfpack were outscored 39-29 in the first half at Pitt on March 9.

YouTube video

Making matters worse, senior guard and leading scorer DJ Horne (16.8 PPG) was suffered a hip flexor injury in the setback to Pitt. He managed just three points in 12 minutes against the Panthers and his status for the ACC Tournament is unclear. He was a limited participant in the team’s practice on Monday.

NC State rates 76th in overall efficiency at KenPom and 69th at Haslametrics. They have been considerably better on offense (69th) than defense (104th).

Louisville Hasn’t Won a Game in Over a Month

Amid the darkest time in the storied history of the program, Louisville managed just eight wins on the season and only three in conference play. While both of those are steps up from last year (4-28 overall, 2-18 ACC), they remained – by a wide margin – the lowest-rated team in the ACC (197th at KenPom and 196 at Haslametrics). Second-lowest was Georgia Tech at 126 while every other team won at least double the games in ACC play.

Louisville enters the ACC Tournament on a seven-game losing streak. Four of those losses came by at least 12 points and the Cardinals were also an absurd 0-7 against the spread in that span.

Last time out, the dropped a 67-61 decision at home to Boston College as 4.5-point underdogs. As they have been for much of the season, Louisville’s four-guard lineup was crushed on the glass (42-31) by the Eagles.

YouTube video

The Cardinals finished the regular season ranked an identical 206th in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

NC State won the only regular-season meeting between the teams, 89-83 in Louisville.  The Wolfpack started the game on a 12-0 run and Louisville never got closer than a bucket thereafter. A late 11-0 run did allow the Cardinals to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs.

NC State vs Louisville Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (LOU) 14.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 7.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) OFF OFF
Casey Morsell (NC ST) 11.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) 0.5 (Ov -225 | Un +165)
DJ Burns Jr (NC ST) 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) OFF
Mike James (LOU) 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 4.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) OFF 0.5 (Ov -245 | Un +180)

College basketball player props as of March 12 at DraftKings. 

With Horne’s status unclear, senior forward DJ Burns Jr has the highest point total of the Wolfpack at 14.5, while Louisville’s leading scorer, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, is at the same number for the Cardinals.

NC State vs Louisville Prediction

There is very little reason to get behind Louisville at this point. They haven’t won or covered a game since Feb. 19 (a 79-67 win over Georgia Tech). NC State is stuck in a discouraging rut of its own, though, and the Cardinals were somewhat competitive when the teams met in the regular season.

If the Wolfpack were fully healthy, I might feel differently. Horne is less than 100%, though, and I have a hard time seeing this NC State team routing anyone as things currently stand.

NC State vs LOU picks: Louisville +9.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 17-19 (-3.59 units)
  • Moneyline: 2-9 (-9.48 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 4-2 (+2.20 units)
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