Nevada vs Arizona State Odds, Lines & Predictions (March 15)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Mar 15, 2023 · 7:59 AM PDT

Arizona State Sun Devils guard Desmond Cambridge Jr celebrates a bucket
Feb 25, 2023; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. (4) celebrates a three point basket against Arizona Wildcats in the second half at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 11 West seeds Arizona State and Nevada meet in an NCAA First Four game on Wednesday, March 15.
  • Arizona State is a 2.5-point favorite over Nevada at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
  • Read below for Nevada vs Arizona State odds and prediction.

Arizona State (22-12, 11-9 Pac-12) is a 2.5-point favorite over Nevada in an NCAA Tournament West Regional play-in game Wednesday at 9:15 pm ET on TruTV at the UD Arena. They were the last two teams to make the NCAA field of 68 .

Nevada (22-10, 12-6 Mountain West) enter on a three-game losing streak. The Wolf Pack ended the regular season with losses MWC second-division teams Wyoming and UNLV and fell to San Jose State in the quarterfinals of league tournament.

Nevada vs Arizona State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Nevada Wolf Pack +2.5 (-120) +106 Over 132.5 (-105)
Arizona State Sun Devils -2.5 (-102) -128 Under 132.5 (-115)

Arizona State is a -128 moneyline favorite over Nevada in the fifth meeting between the two, the first in the postseason. Nevada won the most recent 72-66 in the Hall of Fame Classic at the Staples Center in Los Angeles on Dec. 7, 2018. The Wolf Pack made their last trip to the NCAA Tournament that season, a year after reaching the Sweet Sixteen before falling to Loyola-Chicago.

Arizona State is 15-19 ATS, 7-4 ATS in non-conference games and 4-2 on a neutral floor. Nevada is 18-11-2 ATS, 8-4 ATS in non-conference games and 2-2 on a neutral floor. The Wolf Pack are 18-13 against the over; the Sun Devils are 17-17.


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Nevada Squeaks Into the Field

The Wolf Pack were securely in the NCAA Tournament before cratering in the last two weeks. A road loss to Mountain West cellar-dweller Wyoming, a home overtime loss to rival UNLV and an overtime loss to San Jose State in the quarterfinals of the MWC tournament left them on shaky ground. Nevada beat out Oklahoma State for the final spot in the 68-team field according to the NCAA selection committee. The Wolf Pack and Providence (also three) are the only two teams that enter the NCAAs with a losing streak of as long as three games.

Wolf Pack shooting guard Jarod Lucas (17.3 points, 78 three-pointers) leads the team in scoring and threes and is the only contributor with NCAA Tournament experience after starting on the 2020-21 Oregon State team that made a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight before losing to Houston. Lucas transferred to Nevada this year, and he has a season-high 28 points against San Jose State . Point guard Kenan Blackshear (14.4 points, 4.6 assists) and 6’1″ Baker (13.5 points, 5.1 rebounds) are the other double-digit scorers. Forward Darion Williams (7.5 points,. 7.3 rebounds) was the Mountain West Freshman of the Year.

Nevada does the little things well. It has held opponents to 41.5 percent shooting from the field and commits only 10.3 turnovers per game, 19th in Division 1. The Wolf Pack shoots 79.1 percent from the foul line, fourth in Division I.

Arizona State’s Late Surge

The Sun Devils played their way off the bubble just in time. Desmond Cambridge’s 50-footer at the buzzer gave them a big 89-88 victory against rival Arizona at McKale Center on the final day of Feb. 25, and their 77-72 victory over USC in the Pac-12  Tournament quarterfinals was the final necessary step. There is some familiarity here — Sun Devil starters 6’4″ Desmond Cambridge Jr. and 7′ Warren Washington started for the Wolf Pack last season before entering the transfer portal.

Desmond Cambridge Jr. leads the balanced Sun Devils in scoring at 13.7 points after averaging 16.2 points in Reno last year. Guard 6’1″ DJ Horne (12.1 points) is the only other Arizona State player in double figures, but three others average at least 9.2 points, including Washington (9.2 points, 6.9 rebounds) and Desmond’s brother 6’6″ Devan Cambridge (9.8 points, 5.5 rebounds).

The Sun Devils’ strength is a group of athletic, harassing defenders. They can press, they can switch every screen and they have a rim protector in Washington (1.8 blocks per game). Opponents are shooting only 39.3 percent from the field, ninth in Division I.

Nevada vs Arizona State Prediction

The Mountain West is 2-13 in its last 15 NCAA Tournament, not a great selling point for Nevada, which brings a three-game losing streak and an inexperienced group into the postseason. Arizona State has the better resume. The Sun Devils beat NCAA tournament teams VCU and Creighton (without Ryan Kalkbrenner) early, and it also beat Michigan, drawing a bright line between the two. The Mountain West is fifth in the NCAA Net rankings, ahead of the Pac-12 and ACC.

  • Pick: Nevada +2.5 (-120)
  • Season CBK: 48-24 ATS
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