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Nevada vs Fresno State Picks, Odds & Spread (Feb. 24)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Feb 23, 2023 · 7:37 PM PST

Nevada guard Jarod Lucas dribbling
Nevada guard Jarod Lucas (2) brings the ball up the court against Air Force during the first half of a basketball game played at Lawlor Events Center in Reno, Nev., Friday, Feb. 3, 2023. Air Force At Nevada Basketball 046
  • NCAA Tournament-hopeful Nevada and Fresno State meet in a Mountain West game Friday, February 24
  • Nevada is a 2.5-point road favorite over Fresno State at the Save Mart Center
  • Read below for Nevada vs Fresno State odds and prediction

Nevada (21-7, 11-4 Mountain West) is a 2.5-point road favorite over Fresno State in a MWC game at 11 pm ET on FS1. The Wolf Pack has won five of its last six games to move into third place in the conference.

Fresno State (10-17, 6-10) broke a three-game losing streak with a 74-69 victory at Air Force on Tuesday. The Bulldogs lost the first meeting this season 77-66 at Reno on Feb. 10.

Nevada vs Fresno State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Nevada Wolfpack -2.5 (-115) -146 Over 129.5 (-106)
Fresno State Bulldogs +2.5 (-105) +122 Under 129.5 (-114)

Nevada is a 2.5-point road favorite over Fresno State in a series the Wolf Pack has dominated for the seven seasons. Nevada is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS since the second meeting of the 2017 season. Six of the last seven games have been played in Reno, including. both in a 2021 Covid-affected season. The Bulldogs have had a little more recent success at home, winning and covering two of the last three three, including a 73-56 victory as a 10-point home favorite in 2022.

 

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The Wolf Pack is 17-8-2 ATS this season, which ranks among the top-10 cover percentages in Division I, and is 5-5-1 on the road. Fresno State is 10-16 ATS, 5-6 at home. Nevada is 16-11 against the “over,” while the Bulldogs are a Mountain West-worst 11-15 in the same spot.

Nevada on a Roll

Nevada began its current run with its best victory of the season, a 75-66 home victory over league leader San Diego State on Jan. 31. A four-game winning streak was broken in a loss at against fellow NCAA Tournament contender Utah State a week ago , but the Wolf Park got back on track with a 66-51 victory over San Jose State the last time out Tuesday. Nevada is firmly on the 68-team tournament bubble at this point, but has a smoother road than some because all three of its remaining regular-season games are against second-division teams.

Senior transfer guard Jarod Lucas (16.8 points, 72 threes) has joined second-year transfers 6’6″ guard Kenan Blackshear (14.7 points, 4.7 assists) and 6’11” forward Will Baker (14.2 points, 5.3 rebounds) to give Steve Alford scoring options from inside and outside. Blackshear can push and penetrate and Baker also is comfortable on the perimeter. Baker has made 21 three-pointers, one of five Nevada players with at least 21, and he made five straight to open the eventual 75-66 loss at Utah State. Freshman Darrion Williams (7.5 points, 7.2 rebounds) helps.

Nevada excels on margins. The Wolf Pack commits only 10.4 turnovers per game, among the lowest rates in Division I, and it holds opponents to a 41.8 field goal percentage. Nevada is shooting 79.7 from the foul line, among the best in the nation.

Fresno State Juggles Lineup

Fresno State coach Justin Hutson’s group won 23 game last season, but departures from that team and injuries to this one have led to an inconsistent season. Hutson has used nine different starting lineups, and the Bulldogs will play the rest of the season without 6’10” forward Isaih Moore, who was averaging 11.5 points and 7.3 rebounds and has been put since mid-January with a season-ending hip injury.

Sophomore 6’1″ post Eduardo Andre has averaged 10.7 points and 8.1 rebounds while shooting 58.5 percent from the field since replacing Moore in the starting lineup, and he had a career-high 26 points against Air Force the last time out. Guards Isaiah Hill (12.3 points, 3.7 assists) and Jemarl Baker (11.4 points) are the other double-digit scorers. The Bulldogs were 0-3 when Baker was out with a knee injury.  Fresno’s deficiencies are easy to see —  they shoot 42.4 percent from the field and have a minus-3.1 rebound margin.

Nevada vs Fresno State Prediction

Nevada has a lot to play for — an NCAA Tournament berth, a better seed for the Mountain West postseason tournament from among a tight group of first-division teams, where the top five teams receive a first-round bye. Fresno State is game, but injuries have kept it from its peak form most of the year. The game opened at -3.5 before money came in on the Bulldogs. Nevada has dominated in this spot, and there is no reason to believe that things will change now.

  • Pick: Nevada -2.5 (-115)
  • Season CBK: 42-22 ATS
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