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Northwestern vs UConn Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks (Sunday, Mar. 24)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Basketball

Updated Mar 23, 2024 · 10:34 PM PDT

Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan celebrates as the clock winds down
Mar 16, 2024; New York City, NY, USA; Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) celebrates as the clock winds down on Marquette Golden Eagles in the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • Northwestern battles UConn in Round 2 of March Madness
  • The latest NCAAB odds favor the Huskies over the Wildcats
  • Read below for Northwestern vs UConn prediction, odds, and expert picks

The 2024 March Madness tournament continues this weekend with a matchup between the UConn Huskies and Northwestern Wildcats on Sunday. The latest odds favor the top-seeded Huskies by 13 points over the ninth-seeded Wildcats.

What’s the best bet for this Round 2 March Madness showdown? We’ve made our Northwestern vs UConn prediction to help you make an educated wager on the game.

Northwestern vs UConn Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Northwestern +14.5 (-120) +800 Over 135.5 (-110)
Connecticut -14.5 (-120) -1400 Under 135.5 (-110)

In the Northwestern vs UConn odds, the Huskies are heavy -1400 favorites, giving them an implied win probability of 93%. This spread has climbed with UConn opening as lighter 13-point favorites.

Tip off for UConn vs Northwestern is 7:45 pm ET on Sunday, with TrueTV carrying the broadcast.

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Northwestern vs UConn Team Stats

Northwestern Wildcats
VS
UConn Huskies
38 KenPom Ranking 1
116.2 (32) KP Adj Off Efficiency 126.6 (2)
96.1 (22) KP Adj Def Efficiency 94.1 (12)
64 (340) KP Adj Tempo 64.7 (324)
+10.03 (41) KP Strength of Schedule +9.83 (47)
-7.35 (354) KP Non-Conference SOS -3.28 (283)
39.3% (81) 3P% 36.7% (37)
74.8% (81) FT% 74.3% (86)
73.8 (26) PPG 81.7 (22)
68.9 (15) Opp PPG 64.1 (15)
45.8% (6) Field Goal % 49.7% (5)
33.9 (63) Total Rebounds 40.0 (48)

Northwestern Betting Analysis

Northwestern punched its ticket to Round 2 of the tournament with a dramatic 77-65 overtime victory over Florida Atlantic on Friday. Ryan Langborg, a transfer from Princeton, scored a career-high 27 points, including 12 in overtime, to help the Wildcats pull away from the Owls.

The Wildcats recovered after relinquishing a nine-point lead late in the second half. Brooks Barnhizer had a driving layup to tie it up with nine seconds left. The Wildcats were quite efficient in the extra session, making all five shots from the field and seven of eight free throws.

The Wildcats rank outside the top 100 in both points scored and field goal percentage, but their three-point shooting and free throw accuracy are outstanding. The Wildcats are shooting 39.41% from beyond the arc (6th) and 75% from the charity stripe (67th).

Defensively, Northwestern is decent overall (69 ppg allowed) but struggles in key areas. The Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot 36% from beyond the arc, which ranks outside the top 300. The Wildcats are also allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field (260th).

Northwestern is led by Boo Buie, who averages 19.3 points and five assists per game. Brooks Barnhizer is at the top of the Northwestern rebounding leaderboard with 7.5 rebounds per game. He also averages 14.5 points and 2.7 assists per game.

Connecticut Betting Analysis

As the current favorite in the 2024 March Madness odds, #1 UConn took care of business in their opening game of the tournament against the Stetson Hatters. The Huskies took a 52-19 lead at the half before winning by a final score.

Donovan Clingan scored 19 points and Cam Spencer had 15 as the Huskies shot 68.8%, committed only three turnovers, and outrebounded the Hatters 18-11. Considering how dominant this performance was, it’s no surprise the Huskies are favored to become the first March Madness repeat winner since 2007.

There’s not much that Dan Hurley’s team doesn’t do well. The Huskies rank 22nd in the country in overall offense (81.5) while shooting an outstanding 49.60% from the field. Defensively, Connecticut is top 15 in both points allowed (64 ppg) and opposing field goal percentage (39%).

Tristen Newton paces the Huskies in scoring with 15.1 points per game, while also averaging 6.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists. His playmaking is a big reason the Huskies lead the Big Ten in assists per game at 18.6. Clingan, meanwhile, is averaging 14.1 points and 8.9 rebounds over the last 10 games.

Northwestern vs UConn Prediction

Can Northwestern keep it competitive against one of the most dominant teams in the sport? The Huskies are 9-1 in their past 10 contests, outscoring opponents by an average of 81.0 to 63.9 in that span, all while shooting 48% from the field.

We have concerns about Northwestern’s rotation and the potential impact of fatigue on their performance. The Wildcats had only three players score more than eight points in the overtime win and only six logged more than 20 minutes.

There’s potential for Boo Buie to have another monster game and keep it close down to the wire. That’s why our best bet is going to be on the UConn team total. The Huskies’ offense should feast against a Wildcats defense that is bottom 100 in three-point percentage allowed and outside the top 300 in opponent free throw rate.

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has UConn’s team total at 75.5 in the team props section of their betting app. We like hitting the “over” here, with the Huskies surpassing 76 points in three of their past four contests. The Huskies should continue rolling as they expose the Cats’ defensive deficiencies.

Northwestern vs UConn Pick:

  • Connecticut Team Total Over 75.5

 

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