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Ohio State vs Michigan Odds and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Mar 12, 2021 · 4:38 PM PST

Mike Smith Michigan Wolverines
Michigan guard Mike Smith (12) celebrates at the end of the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Michigan at the Big Ten Conference tournament in Indianapolis, Friday, March 12, 2021. Michigan defeated Maryland 79-66. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
  • #4 Michigan is a 6-point favorite over #9 Ohio State in the Big Ten semifinal on Saturday (March 13th, 1 pm ET)
  • The Wolverines won the only matchup between the two teams this season, a thrilling 92-87 affair
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

The Big Ten Conference Tournament is down to the semifinals, and to no one’s surprise #4 Michigan is still standing. The Wolverines (20-3, 14-3 Big Ten) disposed of Maryland in the quarterfinal on Friday, and will now face #9 Ohio State (20-8, 12-8 Big Ten) in the semis on Saturday (March 13th, 1 pm ET).

The Buckeyes meanwhile, are coming off an OT win versus #20 Purdue, overcoming a furious second half rally by the Boilermakers to book a spot in the semifinal.

#9 Ohio State vs #4 Michigan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Ohio State Buckeyes +6 (-110) OFF Over 146.5 (-110)
Michigan Wolverines -6 (-110) OFF Under 146.5 (-110)

Odds as of March 12th.

Michigan opened up as a 6-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 146.5. The Wolverines’ victory over the Terrapins wasn’t short on drama, as the team was forced to play without their head coach for the final 10+ minutes.

Michigan Mauls Maryland

During a timeout midway through the second half, tempers boiled over between Wolverines bench boss Juwan Howard and Maryland’s head coach Mark Turgeron. Howard, the Big Ten coach of the year, had to be held back as you can see below, and was eventually tossed from the game.

His departure didn’t seem to bother his team, as Michigan extended its lead from 10 to 15 down the stretch, and won comfortably 79-66. Mike Smith led the way with 18 points, while Eli Brooks, who was questionable with an ankle injury coming in, added 16. Franz Wagner also poured in 16, helping to mask a disappointing effort from Hunter Dickinson. The conference Freshman of the year was held to just 6 points, his second lowest output of the season.

Despite an off game from Dickinson, the Wolverines still shot 51.7% from the field and 45.5% from beyond the arc, while dominating the rebounding and assist battle. Defensively, their conference best unit actually showed cracks, allowing the Terps to knock down 48% of its looks. Michigan still forced 11 turnovers however, and its offense was so good, that the defense could afford to take a game off.

Ohio State Outlasts Purdue

The Buckeyes built an 18-point first half lead over the Boilermakers and looked like they would cruise to the semifinals. Then, the offense went ice cold, allowing Purdue to rally and eventually tie the game in the final seconds.

Ohio State managed to regroup ahead of overtime, and dominated in the extra period, handing the Boilermakers their first loss in six games. Duane Washington Jr. led the way offensively with 20 points, while Kyle Young poured in 18, and E.J. Liddell added 17.

They shot 45.5% from the floor, and held Purdue below its average shooting percentage, but this game could have had a much different outcome if the Boilermakers had been able to knockdown their free throws. Purdue was just 15-of-27 from the charity stripe, a performance that will not be replicated by a Wolverines team that knocks down 77% of its free throws.

Wolverines Roll

The lone meeting this season between these two was wildly entertaining, with Michigan prevailing on the road 92-87. Both teams shot 53% from the floor and knocked down 11 triples, but that doesn’t mean another shootout is coming. The Wolverines have limited all but four of their conference opponents, outside of Ohio State, below 70 points and given that the Buckeyes were forced to play an extra period on Friday, Michigan should be much fresher.

YouTube video

For much of this season, when the Wolverines win they cover, and lately has been no exception. They’re 5-0 ATS in their past five victories, and 17-6 versus the number overall. That includes a 13-5 ATS mark against conference opponents and a 7-2 ATS record outside of their own building. Clearly, they feel comfortable away from Ann Arbor, which bodes well since this game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the site of the majority of this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Pick: Michigan Wolverines -6 (-110)


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