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Pitt vs NC State Odds and Picks

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 27, 2021 · 5:45 PM UTC

Braxton Beverly driving past defender
North Carolina State's Braxton Beverly (10) tries to drive through Pittsburgh's Justin Champagnie (11) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • Pittsburgh (9-9, 5-8 ACC) battles NC State (11-9, 7-8 ACC) on Sunday, Feb. 28, at 4pm ET
  • The Wolfpack are on a three-game win streak, but they’ve lost their past three home games
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

As weird as it sounds, the N.C. State Wolfpack might have some mixed feelings about returning home for their matchup with the Pittsburgh Panthers on Sunday, Feb. 28 at 4pm ET.

The Wolfpack are riding a three-game win streak, but all of those wins came on the road. Back home, they’ve lost three in a row. The Panthers, meanwhile, only have one win in the past five weeks.

Pitt vs NC State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Pitt +6 (-110) +220 Over 139.5 (-106)
N.C. State -6 (-110) -270 Under 139.5 (-116)

Odds as of Feb. 27th at FanDuel

How They’ve Fared Recently

Pitt has really seen a tale of two seasons in 2020-21, and unfortunately for the Panthers they’re in the rougher portion of it right now. They began their season with an 8-2 record, which included strong wins over Syracuse (twice) and Duke. But since then, Pitt is in a tailspin, going just 1-7 in their past eight.

Two of those losses were by a single point, while another three losses were by seven or fewer. So they’ve had some bad breaks. But we can’t cut too much slack for a team consistently coming up on the wrong side of tight games.

Pitt’s offense isn’t very good. They rank outside NCAA Division I’s top 200 in 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage, effective field goal percentage and free throw percentage. On the plus side, they create lots of second chances for themselves (26th in offensive rebound rate).

NC State is a much better offensive team, ranking inside the top 70 in D-I in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage.

The Wolfpack’s three-game win streak began with a one-point win over Pitt (more on that later), and continued with an 18-point win over Wake Forest and a seven-point win over #15 Virginia. They have 23 steals combined in those three games, which is good but not up to NC State’s standard this year (they rank 10th in D-I in defensive steal rate).

ATS Analysis

Pitt is 9-8-1 against the spread this year, with a 4-2 ATS road record. As stated, the Panthers have lost seven of eight straight up — and that has translated to a 2-5-1 ATS record in the same span. The over has hit in four of the Panthers’ past five games.

N.C. State is 9-9-2 ATS overall this season, which includes a 3-6-1 ATS mark at home. They’ve compiled three consecutive straight up wins as underdogs — all on the road — and they’re 0-3-1 ATS in their past four home games. The over has hit in their past three games.

Head-to-Head Matchup

A week and a half ago, Pitt hosted NC State and the Wolfpack emerged with a 74-73 victory. NC State held a double-digit lead for much of the first half, but the second half was very back-and-forth. The Panthers briefly held a two-point lead inside the final two minutes, but they couldn’t hold on.

YouTube video

The game was very close in many aspects: NC State had two more assists and slightly higher shooting percentages; Pitt had one more rebound and a slightly better free throw percentage; both teams had 14 turnovers.

In a matchup this close, Pitt’s 6-point spread looks awfully good. NC State’s home court advantage has been anything but that of late, which should give the Panthers a solid chance to cover a fairly generous spread.

Pick: Pitt +6 (-110)

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