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Saint Louis vs Dayton Odds, Spread and Prediction (Feb. 10)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Apr 11, 2023 · 4:38 PM PDT

Dayton Flyers forward DaRon Holmes II celebrates a basket
Mar 12, 2022; Washington, D.C., USA; Dayton Flyers forward DaRon Holmes II (15) celebrates after scoring while being fouled against the Richmond Spiders in the first half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • Atlantic 10 contenders Saint Louis and Dayton meet on Friday, February 10
  • Dayton is a 4.5-point home favorite over Saint Louis at the UD Arena
  • Read below for Saint Louis vs Dayton odds and prediction

Dayton (16-9, 8-4 Atlantic 10) is a 4.5-point home favorite over Saint Louis in an A-10 game at 8 pm ET Friday on ESPN/ESPN+. The Flyers have won three of their last four games and are 12-1 at home.

Saint Louis (16-8, 8-3 Atlantic 10) has won seven of its last nine, and it snapped a two-game losing streak with a 76-71 home victory over Rhode Island the last time out Tuesday.

Saint Louis vs Dayton Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Saint Louis Billikens +4.5 (-102) +176 Over 136.5 (-110)
Dayton Flyers -4.5 (-120) -210 Under 136.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel on Feb. 9. Claim the current FanDuel promos.

Dayton is a 4.5-point favorite over Saint Louis in a series in which the Flyers have held the upper hand recently. Dayton is 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in the last six, and the Billikens broke a five-game losing series streak with a home victory last season. The Flyers are 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last eight in the series at UD Arena, all but once as a favorite off at least three points.


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Dayton is 11-14 ATS this season, 7-6 at home. Saint Louis is 10-13 ATS, 4-4 on the road. The Flyers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in A-10 home games. The game has under the total in 15 of the Flyers’ 25 games and in 12 of the Billikens’ 23 games.

Dayton Thrives at Home

Dayton and Saint Louis were the overwhelming choices to finish 1-2 in the A-10 in the preseason coaches’ poll, with VCU picked third. The Flyers enter their first meeting against Saint Louis after settling one score this season in a 62-58 road victory at VCU the last time out Tuesday, a win that avenged their only home loss in league play. Dayton is 12-1 at home this season, although its best win is a 79-56 blowout of Big South leader UNC-Asheville on Dec. 10.

The Flyers feature a strong frontcourt in sophomore 6’10” DaRon Holmes II (17.6 points, 7.9 rebounds) and junior 6’8 Toumani Camara (13.9, 9.2), who are each shooting better than 53 percent from the floor. Holmes is projected as a first-round pick in the 2023 NBA draft. Camara has been on a roll. He had a 26-point, 15-rebound double-double in the win over VCU and had career-high 31 points against Loyola in the last home game Jan. 31. With that length, the Flyers have a plus-5.8 rebound margin and are limiting opponents to 39.3 shooting from the field.

Holmes and Camara have started every game, but coach Anthony Grant has had to work around the intermittent availability of backcourt 6′ point guard Malachi Smith and 6’6″ R.J. Blakney. Smith (7.6 points, 5.5 assists) has played only 10 games this season because of ankle injuries and he missed the VCU game. His status is unknown. Blakney has missed the last two games for undisclosed reasons.

Saint Louis Struggles Against Top Teams

The Billikens have played an aggressive non-conference schedule befitting a team returning a strong, deep rotation, but have they struggled against the top programs. Their only Quad 1 win has been against Providence, the only Quad 1 win by either of these teams. Since thrashing St. Bonaventure on Jan. 14, Saint Louis not beaten a DI team in two tries, losing to Fordham and VCU in the last 10 days.

Penetrate-and-kick point guard Yuri Collins (11.7 points, 10.1 assists) became the A-10 career assist leader with eight against Rhode Island the last time out as the Billikens responded to the losses to Fordham and VCU. Collins added 15 points and spot-up shooter Gibson Jimerson (13.2 points, 62 threes) had 24 points and a deciding 3-pointer with 32 seconds remaining. Wing Javonte Perkins averages 10.7 points and has 40 threes. Preseason A-10 selection 6’9″ Francis Okoro (7.4 points, 8.6 rebounds) is an imposing post presence for a team that has a plus-5.2 rebounding margin and has held foes to 40.6 percent from the field.

Saint Louis vs Dayton Prediction

Neither of these teams is in the top 80 of the NET rankings, and each has only two Quad 1/Quad 2 victories apiece. The stakes are obvious. Only the A-10 winner and perhaps the league runner-up are likely to make the NCAA Tournament, and the loser here will have an uphill road, with redemption possible only through the league tournament. Dayton has played well in this spot, so lay the points here.

  • Pick: Dayton -4.5 (-120)
  • Season CBK: 33-20 ATS


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