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San Diego State vs Air Force Picks and Odds

John Hyslop

by John Hyslop in College Basketball

Jan 21, 2021 · 7:40 PM PST

Jordan Schakel dribbles basketball
San Diego State guard Jordan Schakel dribbles the ball against Arizona State during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game Thursday, Dec. 10, 2020, in Tempe, Ariz. San Diego State defeated Arizona State 80-68. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
  • The San Diego State Aztecs (9-4, 3-3 Mountain West) play the Air Force Falcons (4-8, 2-6 Mountain West) on Friday, January 22
  • Both teams are coming off of losses and looking to get back on track
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet, below

The San Diego State Aztecs and Air Force Falcons will play the first of game of a home and away series on Friday night (11pm ET).

Both teams’ seasons are on life support after poor starts in conference play. The Aztecs come into this one after suffering two straight losses to Utah State after winning three straight games. The Falcons are all but dead in the water at this point as they are losers of their five of their last six.

The Aztecs have dominated this series, winning six of the last seven meetings between the programs. The current odds are showing San Diego State as 14.5 point favorites in this matchup.

San Diego State vs Air Force Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
San Diego State Aztecs -14.5 (-118) -2200 Over 123.5 (-112)
Arizona State Sun Devils +14.5 (-104) +1100 Under 123.5 (-108)

Odds as of January 21st at FanDuel.

San Diego State is Stingy

For years the San Diego State Aztecs hung their hats on suffocating defense. While they might not be as dominating as they once were, they are still a top-20 defense in terms of efficiency according to KenPom. They currently rank 22nd in the country in opponent points allowed per game and even in their last two losses, they never allowed more than 64 points.

In their loss to Utah State, San Diego State took a 10-point lead into the locker room at halftime. They did everything they needed to do on the defensive end, holding the Aggies to 37% shooting from the floor. It was their normally reliable ability to deny second chance opportunities that let them down most. They allowed Utah State to grab 10 offensive rebounds, which is not a normal occurrence, as the Aztecs are in the top third of the country in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.

Air Force is a Sinking Ship

The Air Force Falcons’ season is quickly spinning out of control. They are 2-7 in their last nine games with no real semblance of an identity. They are currently 263rd in offensive efficiency which contributes to their low scoring outputs. They rank 337th in the country in points per game and the lack of offense showed up in their last game against Wyoming.

As bad as the Falcons’ offense is, the defense may be even worse. Air Force is 323 out of 357 schools in the country in defensive efficiency and it showed against Wyoming. The Falcons allowed the Cowboys to shoot 49% from the field, including 50% from three-point land. One bright spot for Air Force was Nikc Jackson who led the way with 19 points.

They are 333rd in opponent effective field goal percentage.

Best Betting Angle

San Diego State is a very good basketball team that ran into a defensive buzzsaw in Utah State the last two times out. The Aggies took advantage of a mediocre Aztec offense and came away with a couple wins as a result. That is highly unlikely to happen Friday Night.

Air Force is 333rd in opponent effective field goal percentage this season. They are the exact team San Diego State needs to play at this exact moment. Not only will they give up points, they will also be easy for the Aztecs to keep from scoring. San Diego State compares well to the Utah State defense and in two games with the Aggies, Air Force never scored more than 53 points. This game has blowout written all over it.

Pick: San Diego State -14.5 (-118)

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