- VCU (19-6, 10-4 Atlantic 10) battles St. Bonaventure (15-4, 11-4 Atlantic 10) on Sunday, March 14th, at 1:00 pm ET, in the final of the Atlantic 10 tournament
- The Bonnies and Rams split their season series in 2020-21
- The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and pick, can be found in the article below
One positive about Sunday’s Atlantic 10 tournament final between 1st-seeded St. Bonaventure and 2nd-seeded VCU is that both teams are probably safe bets to make the NCAA tournament.
Still, there is conference pride on the line. And we couldn’t be primed for a better A-10 finale than this one, with a pair of strong, interesting teams. Here’s a look at the odds:
VCU vs St. Bonaventure Odds
|VCU||+2 (-109)||+112||Over 128.0 (-108)|
|St. Bonaventure||-2 (-112)||-136||Under 128.0 (-113)|
Odds as of March 11th at DraftKings.
How They’ve Fared Recently
From Jan. 23 onward, VCU is 9-2 and looking every bit as impressive as that record. The Rams have compiled seven wins against KenPom top-100 teams in that span and earned four of their victories by double digits. The only setbacks came in overtime against George Mason and an eight-point loss to a respectable Davidson bunch (58th in KenPom).
— VCU Basketball (@VCU_Hoops) March 5, 2021
There isn’t much to say, good or bad, about VCU’s offense — it’s pretty average. The defense, though, is a different story. The Rams rank ninth in NCAA Division I in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re also third in the nation in block rate (15.1%) and second in steal rate (13.3%). So if you manage to not get the ball swiped, it’s probably getting swatted.
A couple of concerns for the Rams through two A-10 tournament games: they’re shooting just 10-of-33 from three (30.3%) and have committed 29 turnovers.
What might also be concerning is how hot their opponent is right now. St. Bonaventure has won six of eight, with the losses coming by a combined six points against a pair of KenPom top-100 foes.
There's no doubt – Kyle Lofton is ELITE 🌟 pic.twitter.com/YjdAPW8h7y
— Bonnies Men's Basketball (@BonniesMBB) March 10, 2021
Otherwise, the Bonnies have steamrolled their way through other recent opponents, with five double-digit wins recently. Like VCU, St. Bonaventure’s defense is strong (19th in adjusted efficiency), but they’re a bit more balanced on the offensive side (45th in adjusted offensive efficiency).
VCU is 14-11 against the spread this season, while St. Bonaventure is 13-5-1 ATS.
2-0 in Richmond ✅
On to Dayton ✅
— Bonnies Men's Basketball (@BonniesMBB) March 7, 2021
The Rams have covered in both prior matchups of this A-10 tournament, and they’ve seen the under hit in five of their past seven games. The Bonnies have also covered in both A-10 games — part of a 6-1-1 ATS run right now — and they’ve seen the under hit in six of their past seven games.
VCU and St. Bonaventure both came away with a straight up win against each other this season, but the Bonnies emerged on the winning side of both spreads. They covered as 2.5-point favorites on Jan. 20 in a 70-59 victory, then again as 3.5-point underdogs in a 67-64 loss on Feb. 12. It’s also worth noting that both games hit the under.
Simply put, St. Bonaventure has been a great team ATS this year. Unfortunately, with a spread this tight, money line is always a better bang for one’s buck.
So we’ll put our faith in the Bonnies, on the money line, as well as a third consecutive “under” for this matchup.
Pick: St. Bonaventure Off (Off); Under Off