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VCU vs St Bonaventure – Odds, Lines & Spread for A10 Championship Game

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Mar 16, 2021 · 10:55 AM PDT

Mike Rhoades speaking with one arm up
VCU coach Mike Rhoades talks with an official during the first half of a first-round game against Central Florida in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament Friday, March 22, 2019, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Sean Rayford)
  • VCU (19-6, 10-4 Atlantic 10) battles St. Bonaventure (15-4, 11-4 Atlantic 10) on Sunday, March 14th, at 1:00 pm ET, in the final of the Atlantic 10 tournament
  • The Bonnies and Rams split their season series in 2020-21
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and pick, can be found in the article below

One positive about Sunday’s Atlantic 10 tournament final between 1st-seeded St. Bonaventure and 2nd-seeded VCU is that both teams are probably safe bets to make the NCAA tournament.

NCAA.com projects both teams to be #11 seeds, while ESPN has St. Bonaventure as a #9 seed and VCU as an #11 (and included in the “last four byes” section of its bubble watch).

Still, there is conference pride on the line. And we couldn’t be primed for a better A-10 finale than this one, with a pair of strong, interesting teams. Here’s a look at the odds:

VCU vs St. Bonaventure Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
VCU +2 (-109) +112 Over 128.0 (-108)
St. Bonaventure -2 (-112) -136 Under 128.0 (-113)

Odds as of March 11th at DraftKings.

How They’ve Fared Recently

From Jan. 23 onward, VCU is 9-2 and looking every bit as impressive as that record. The Rams have compiled seven wins against KenPom top-100 teams in that span and earned four of their victories by double digits. The only setbacks came in overtime against George Mason and an eight-point loss to a respectable Davidson bunch (58th in KenPom).

There isn’t much to say, good or bad, about VCU’s offense — it’s pretty average. The defense, though, is a different story. The Rams rank ninth in NCAA Division I in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re also third in the nation in block rate (15.1%) and second in steal rate (13.3%). So if you manage to not get the ball swiped, it’s probably getting swatted.

A couple of concerns for the Rams through two A-10 tournament games: they’re shooting just 10-of-33 from three (30.3%) and have committed 29 turnovers.

What might also be concerning is how hot their opponent is right now. St. Bonaventure has won six of eight, with the losses coming by a combined six points against a pair of KenPom top-100 foes.

Otherwise, the Bonnies have steamrolled their way through other recent opponents, with five double-digit wins recently. Like VCU, St. Bonaventure’s defense is strong (19th in adjusted efficiency), but they’re a bit more balanced on the offensive side (45th in adjusted offensive efficiency).

ATS Analysis

VCU is 14-11 against the spread this season, while St. Bonaventure is 13-5-1 ATS.

The Rams have covered in both prior matchups of this A-10 tournament, and they’ve seen the under hit in five of their past seven games. The Bonnies have also covered in both A-10 games — part of a 6-1-1 ATS run right now — and they’ve seen the under hit in six of their past seven games.

Head-to-Head Matchup

VCU and St. Bonaventure both came away with a straight up win against each other this season, but the Bonnies emerged on the winning side of both spreads. They covered as 2.5-point favorites on Jan. 20 in a 70-59 victory, then again as 3.5-point underdogs in a 67-64 loss on Feb. 12. It’s also worth noting that both games hit the under.

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Simply put, St. Bonaventure has been a great team ATS this year. Unfortunately, with a spread this tight, money line is always a better bang for one’s buck.

So we’ll put our faith in the Bonnies, on the money line, as well as a third consecutive “under” for this matchup.

Pick: St. Bonaventure Off (Off); Under Off

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