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Texas Tech vs Baylor Picks and Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Mar 6, 2021 · 6:30 PM PST

Adam Flager dribbling the ball
Baylor's Adam Flager (10) drives the ball during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Texas Tech in Lubbock, Texas, Saturday, Jan. 16, 2021. (AP Photo/Justin Rex)
  • #18 Texas Tech (17-8, 9-7 Big 12) battles #3 Baylor (20-1, 12-1 Big 12) on Sunday, March 7 at 4pm ET
  • The Bears, who haven’t lost at home all season, beat the Red Raiders, 68-60 on the road earlier this year
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

For one last time, the #3 Baylor Bears put their perfect home record on the line Sunday in a compelling matchup against #18 Texas Tech (4 pm ET tip off).

The Red Raiders couldn’t beat Baylor at home back in January, but they enter this game on a three-game win streak, which matches their longest in Big 12 play this year.

#18 Texas Tech vs #3 Baylor Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Texas Tech +8 (-110) +280 Over 140 (-106)
Baylor -8 (-110) -350 Under 140 (-116)

Odds as of March 6th, 2021 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

Is Texas Tech a fraud? Asking for a friend. The Red Raiders’ 17-8 record is largely split between wins against mediocre/bad teams and losses against good teams. In 13 matchups with KenPom top-40 teams, Texas Tech is 5-8 โ€” and two of those wins came over #16 Oklahoma, who has suddenly stumbled to four consecutive losses.

Maybe fraud is harsh. Texas Tech is at least battle-tested, we know that. The offense is competent (188th in NCAA Division I in effective field goal percentage, 34th in adjusted efficiency) and the defense can be downright vicious (11th in turnover rate, 17th in adjusted efficiency). On their current three-game win streak, the Red Raiders have allowed an average of 54 points against.

Meanwhile, Baylor has scored fewer than 65 points just once this season (their lone loss vs #13 Kansas). The Bears had one hiccup in a tough road game, but otherwise they’ve been absolutely outstanding.

Against KenPom top-40 teams, the Bears are 8-1. That includes a win over Texas Tech, which we’ll discuss in a bit. As a team, Baylor shoots 42% from three-point range, which is simply ridiculous.

They are also lethal when it comes to creating turnovers on defense (third in D-I in turnover rate). If we wanted to find flaws in this team โ€” and there aren’t many โ€” we’d look at their poor free throw shooting (68.6%, 248th in D-I) and the high rate of offensive rebounds they allow (30.9%, 279th).

ATS Analysis

Baylor is 14-7 against the spread this year, but a far less impressive 5-5 ATS in home games. The Bears have failed to cover in four of their past six games, as well as four of their past five home games.

Texas Tech is 10-15 ATS overall this season, which includes a 3-5 ATS mark on the road. On the plus side, the Red Raiders have a three-game ATS win streak going. They were favored in all of those games, though, and they are just 1-2 ATS as an underdog this season.

The over has hit in eight of Baylor’s past nine games, while the under has hit in four of Texas Tech’s past five.

Head-to-Head Matchup

In Lubbock, Tx., on Jan. 16, Baylor defeated Texas Tech, 68-60. The Bears also won both meetings in the 2019-20 season straight up, but let’s keep our focus on the most recent game.

The Bears opened with an 11-0 run, and added a 17-6 run late in the game. Otherwise, there was plenty of back-and-forth action, with the Red Raiders winning the rebound battle (plus-five) and the Bears winning the turnover battle (plus-six).

We like Baylor to repeat with a win, both because they’ve already demonstrated they can beat Texas Tech and because they haven’t lost at home all year. But the spread might be a bit dicey, given the Bears’ so-so trends on that front, so a money line play is probably the right option.

Pick: Baylor ML (-350)

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