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Arizona vs UCLA Odds and Picks

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 17, 2021 · 9:10 PM PST

Johnny Juzang UCLA Bruins
UCLA guard Johnny Juzang (3) makes a pass during an NCAA college basketball game Friday, Dec. 11, 2020, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
  • UCLA (14-5, 10-3 Pac 12) battles Arizona (14-7, 8-7 Pac 12) on Thursday, Feb. 18, at 9pm ET
  • The Bruins beat the Wildcats on the road by five points when these teams met back in early January
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

UCLA is in hot pursuit of USC in the Pac-12 conference standings, but you might not know it if you’ve watched the Bruins play in the past two-and-a-half weeks. UCLA has gone 2-3 in that span, playing down to some lesser opponents in the process.

They’ll match up with a fairly even opponent — at least on paper — in Arizona on Thursday, Feb. 18 with the tip off scheduled for 9:00 pm ET at Pauley Pavillion in Los Angeles.

UCLA got the better of Arizona when these teams met last month, but oddsmakers are expecting a closely contested battle in the rematch.

Arizona vs UCLA Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Arizona +1.5 (-105) -105 Over 139 (-110)
UCLA -1.5 (-115) -115 Under 139 (-110)

Odds as of Feb. 17th, 2020 at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

UCLA rolled into its Jan. 23 game against Stanford with a national ranking (#24) and a perfect 8-0 conference record. But the Bruins fell to the Cardinal in overtime that night, 73-72, beginning a cold streak that they hope ends Thursday.

A week after the overtime loss, UCLA snuck by Oregon State (123rd in KenPom) with a five-point win. Then they got blown out by #17 USC and lost to Washington State (112th in KenPom), too, before squeaking out a three-point win over Washington (164th in KenPom).

The Bruins’ rough patch could end if they shot the 3-pointer more. They’re 65th in NCAA Division I in 3-pt. shooting percentage (36.2 percent) but 281st in D-I in 3-pt. usage (32.8 percent of field goal attempts).

Arizona is even better at shooting threes (38.1 percent, 26th in D-I) and yet they use that scoring method even less (30.8 percent of field goal attempts, 311th in D-I). The Wildcats have been in their own slump of late, with losses in four of their past six.

To be fair, all four of those losses came against teams inside KenPom’s top 70. And the two most recent losses, to Colorado (16th) and Oregon (39th), came by three and two points, respectively.

ATS Analysis

UCLA is 9-10 against the spread overall, but at home they’re a much improved 6-3 ATS. Five of the Bruins’ past six games have been away from home, so surely they’re looking forward to being back in a friendly atmosphere. The under has hit in three of their past four games.

Arizona is 8-13 ATS, with a 3-4 ATS road record. The Wildcats have suffered three ATS losses in their past four games, and they’ve seen the under hit in six of their past seven.

Head-to-Head Matchup

The Jan. 9 matchup between these teams, played at Arizona, finished with the Bruins pulling out an 81-76 victory.

YouTube video

Both teams recorded just nine turnovers and the rebound battle was nearly a dead heat — but the difference maker was that Arizona committed 25 personal fouls, allowing UCLA to shoot 27-of-32 from the free throw line.

Ironically, Arizona is typically the team that gets to the line at a torrid pace (their free throw to field goal rate is 42.8 percent, sixth in D-I). The Wildcats have committed no more than 15 fouls in each of their past seven games, and if they keep that up they can exact revenge on the Bruins.

Pick: Arizona +1.5 (-105)

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