Virginia vs Duke Odds, Lines and Spread (Feb. 7)

• No. 9 Duke is a 12.5-point home favorite over Virginia on Monday
• Virginia is1-6 straight up, 6-1 ATS in its last seven at Duke
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 9 Duke (19-3, 9-2 Atlantic Coast) is a 12.5-point home favorite over Virginia in an ACC game at 7 pm Monday on ESPN. The Blue Devils have won five in a row and seven of eight to take over first place in the ACC.

Virginia (14-9, 8-5 Atlantic Coast) alternated wins and losses in a nine-game stretch before handling ACC contender Miami 71-58 the last time out Saturday for a second straight victory.

Virginia vs Duke Odds

Odds from BetMGM on Feb. 6

Duke is a 9.5-point home favorite over Virginia with the total set at 127.5, the lowest total in a Duke game by 10 points. The Blue Devils are -800 on the moneyline, which means they have a 88.9% implied win probability. Virginia is +550 on the money, which translates to a 15.4% implied win probability.

Duke on a Roll

So much for sentimentality. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski was welcomed with boos and taunts before, during and after the Blue Devils’ 87-67 victory at North Carolina in the last time out Saturday, the last of Krzyzewski’s 42nd games in Chapel Hill. He won 17.

Duke scored 31 of the first 39 points to take early control, then opened the second half on a 12-0 run after the Tar Heels cut the deficit to 11 at half. The Blue Devils shot 57.6 percent from the field and had a 40-24 rebounding advantage.

Emerging freshman star 6-6 AJ Griffin had a career-high 27 points for the Blue Devils, including the first 10 points of the second half. Wendell Moore had 13 points, eight rebounds and five assists.

Griffin, brought along slowly early because of a preseason knee injury, has 62 points in his last three game while going 25 of 41 from the floor, 9 of 13 from distance. The Blue Devils are 7-1 since Griffin joined the starting lineup Jan. 12, during which he is averaging 14.4 points and 4.4 rebounds.

An incredible performance by @whoisAG21 in the Blue Devils win 🔵😈#ACCMBB | @DukeMBB pic.twitter.com/Qgj1vMrDLU

— ACC Men's Basketball (@accmbb) February 6, 2022

Freshman guard 6-4 Trevor Keels, another of the five Blue Devils projected to go in the first round of the 2022 NBA draft, had 11 points off the bench against the Heels in his second game back after missing the previous three with a calf injury.

Jeremy Roach, who has started the last five in place of Keels, had eight points and four assists against the Tar Heels.

Virginia vs Duke Head-to-Head Results

Duke has won three of the last four and six of the last eight in the season series, going 4-4 ATS. Four of the last five games have been decided by two points or less.

Excellent ball movement leads to the JAM 😤#ACCMBB | @UVAMensHoops pic.twitter.com/eAlHU01jVd

— ACC Men's Basketball (@accmbb) February 6, 2022

The Blue Devils have won 19 of the last 20 in Cameron Indoor Stadium against Virginia, which broke a 17-game losing streak with a 65-63 victory on Jan. 27, 2018, although the point spread results are almost diametrically opposed.

The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in last seven at Duke, failing to cover only as a 2.5-point favorite in a 66-65 victory last season. Virginia  is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at Duke.

Duke has handed three teams their first (and only) home loss this season:

North Carolina — 12-1 at home
Notre Dame — 9-1
Wake Forest — 13-1#DukeMBBStats

— #DukeMBBStats (@DukeMBBStats) February 6, 2022

Betting Trends

Duke is 13-7-2 ATS this season, 7-5-2 as a home favorite. The Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS in the ACC, and they are 6-1 ATS in regular-season games immediately after playing North Carolina over the last four seasons.

Virginia has lost three of its last four ACC road games. The Cavaliers have been over the total in five of the last six games and are 8-5 over in the ACC. They are 5-3 over on the road.

Virginia Guard-edly Optimistic

The Wahoos are led by transfer forward Jayden Gardner (14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds) a trio of guards,  holdovers Kihei Clark (9.8 points, 4.0 assists) and Reece Beekman (7.9 points, 5.1 assists, 2.2 steals) and transfer and Armaan Franklins (12.3 points).

Franklin had 22 points and four assists in the victory over Miami, which was not as close as the 13-point final margin. Franklin had three 3-pointers and Clark had two, when the Cavaliers were 8 of 15 from distance.

Beekman had 10 assists and the Wahoos’ shot 60 percent from field field. Center 7’1 Francisco Caffaro, who has started the lasts seven games, had eight points and five rebounds against the Hurricanes.

A Run on Duke

With a roster full of potential NBA first-rounders and winners of seven of eight, Duke has grained traction a possible the NCAA champion.

After routing North Carolina on Saturday, the Blue Devils (+950) are FanDuel’s third-favorite to win the title behind Gonzaga (+550) and Auburn (+900). Auburn (+1200) and Kentucky (+1200) are next.

Fewest games scoring less than 60 points by D-I teams since 2011:
6 – Duke
11 – Gonzaga
14 – BYU
14 – Belmont
17 – Iona

Fewest games scoring less than 60 points by major conf. teams since 2011:
6 – Duke
20 – Kansas
25 – Kentucky
29 – North Carolina
30 – Arkansas#DukeMBBStats

— #DukeMBBStats (@DukeMBBStats) February 1, 2022

BetMGM has the odds slightly higher, posting Duke at +1000,  behind Gonzaga (+600) and Auburn (+800) and tied with Kentucky for third choice.

Duke’s three losses this season are by five points at Ohio State, by two at home to Miami and by one at Florida State.

Virginia vs Duke Prediction

Duke is special this season, over-loaded with talent and fueled by motivation to give Coach K a proper sendoff. But winning and covering are two different things, and the trend in this series is too hard to ignore. Virginia is the play.

The pick: Virginia +12.5 (-110)