Upcoming Match-ups

Wisconsin vs Nebraska Picks and Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in College Basketball

Updated Feb 10, 2021 · 10:17 AM UTC

Tyler Wahl standing on defensive end
Wisconsin's Tyler Wahl runs during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Northwestern Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2021, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
  • #21 Wisconsin (14-6, 8-5 Big Ten) battles Nebraska (4-10, 0-7 Big Ten) on Wednesday, Feb. 10, at 9:30pm ET
  • The Badgers were embarrassed in their most recent game, but the Cornhuskers have been embarrassed throughout conference play
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

Wisconsin probably need this. After a crushing loss to #6 Illinois, the Badgers get to rebound against the Big Ten’s basemen dweller, Nebraska, on Wednesday, Feb. 10 at 9:30pm ET.

If you’re looking for analysis on how Nebraska can pull the upset … you won’t find it here. The Badgers are rightfully a sizable favorite. But can they cover the spread? That’s another question entirely.

#21 Wisconsin vs. Nebraska Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Wisconsin -11.5 (-105) -690 Over 137.5 (-110)
Nebraska +11.5 (-115) +490 Under 137.5 (-110)

Odds taken Feb. 10th at FanDuel.

How They’ve Fared Recently

Wisconsin has alternated wins and double-digit losses in its past six games, culminating with Saturday’s 75-60 loss to Illinois. It’s not logical to say the Badgers are “due” for a win, but it is stacking up that way.

They like to play at a slow, suffocating pace (324th adjusted tempo in NCAA Division I), taking their time to construct the perfect offensive possession. As a result, their 24th in NCAA D-I in adjusted offensive efficiency. And their experience (average of 2.38 years per player, 19th in D-I) suggests they’ll bounce back from a tough loss without issue.

And honestly, Wisconsin’s defense is more impressive than its offense (ninth in NCAA D-I in adjusted efficiency). We could be in for a low scoring affair on Wednesday, when you factor in Wisconsin’s strong defense and Nebraska’s hapless offense.

The Cornhuskers haven’t beaten anyone ranked inside KenPom’s top 150. Seven of their 10 losses — including five of their conference losses — have come by at least 10 points. It hasn’t been pretty, and that’s largely because the offense has struggled to score (308th in NCAA D-I in effective field goal percentage).

Nebraska’s best player, Teddy Allen (17.2 points, 4.9 rebounds per game) was benched on Feb. 8 for disciplinary reasons, which coach Fred Hoiberg said will be “re-evaluated” ahead of Wednesday’s game.

We can’t say for sure, but this feels like a one-game situation that should be resolved now. Still, it’s never a great situation when the coach and star player are at odds with each other.

ATS Analysis

Wisconsin is 9-10-1 against the spread, including 3-4 ATS on the road. The Badgers have dropped three of their past five, all by sizable margins (at least 11 points). They are 2-4-1 ATS as double-digit favorites.

Nebraska is 5-8 ATS overall and 3-5 ATS at home. They’ve dropped four of their past six, and they’re 2-3 this season as double-digit underdogs.

Head-to-Head Matchup

In the past three seasons (including this one), Wisconsin has won all five meetings in straight up fashion against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have come away with three ATS wins in that span, however, including this season’s narrow win as 16-point underdogs.

On Dec. 22, Wisconsin failed to cover by two points in a 67-53 win. The Badgers held the Cornhuskers to 33.3 percent shooting and, amazingly, won handily despite missing 17 of their first 18 shots.

YouTube video

This rematch has the makings of another blowout, with Wisconsin in need of a punching bag to beat up on — and Nebraska a prime candidate to fill that role.

Pick: Wisconsin -11.5 (-105)

Author Image