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2020 College Football Week 4 ATS Picks

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in College Football

Sep 24, 2020 · 7:23 AM PDT

Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) is sacked by Georgia Tech defensive lineman Antwan Owens (89) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 2, 2019, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
  • Week 4 of college football continues on Saturday, Sep. 26th with the best slate of games so far this season
  • The ACC and Big 12 are in full swing, and the SEC joins the fray this weekend 
  • Read below for ATS picks for Week 4 of the college football season

The college football season is now nearing the one-month mark, but only now is it really starting to feel like a full fall Saturday is ahead of us. The Big 12, ACC, and AAC have gotten multiple games in, but with the SEC now starting play, that shortage of marquee games that has been felt so far is about to disappear.

As we get ready for the final weekend of September, here are my favorite ATS picks on this oh-so anticipated Saturday.

Florida State vs Miami Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Florida State Seminoles +10.5 (-110) +340 O 53.5 (-112)
Miami Hurricanes -10.5 (-110) -470 U 53.5 (-108)

All odds taken Sep. 24 at FanDuel

Pick #1: Seminoles Keep it Close Against the U

The SEC is getting started, but that doesn’t mean its the only game in town. In terms of rivalries with real history, there’s not a bigger one than the Florida State-Miami matchup. It does lack a bit of its usual shine considering the Seminoles’ recent ineptitude, but there’s actually a strong case to be made on behalf of the underdog.

In this game’s recent history, it really doesn’t matter how elite one school may be, or how poor the other may be. In 2014, a defending national-champion FSU team led by a Heisman winner in Jameis Winston escaped Miami with just a 4-point victory.

In the years since, the average score margin is 5 points, and just one game has been decided by double digits.

Mike Norvell won’t make the trip after a positive COVID-19 test, but missing a head coach hasn’t been a huge obstacle for the Seminoles in recent years.

At a place that has undergone multiple coaching changes in recent seasons, playing with an interim coach has become a common occurrence. They’ve gone 4-2 in 6 games with an interim coach, including a 2017 Independence Bowl victory.

After a couple of huge wins, and D’Eriq King’s emergence as a national star – the public is all over Miami. I’ll fade them and get set for another ugly, close game between these heated Sunshine State rivals.

The Pick: FSU +10.5 (-110)

Troy vs BYU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Troy Trojans +13.5 (-110) +390 O 56.5 (-115)
BYU Cougars -13.5 (-110) -550 U 56.5 (-105)

Pick #2 Trojans Cover the Spread on the Road

On this huge weekend, one of the best values on the board has been buried. Troy will travel to Provo for a matchup with BYU, and they’re getting nearly two whole touchdowns.

This is a classic case of one team being undervalued, and one team being overvalued. On BYU’s part, they’re getting far too much love for their 55-3 win over Navy. The Midshipmen had not had any contact whatsoever in practice due to COVID-19, and it was obvious that BYU was beating up on a team that hadn’t done a single tackling drill in 2020.

Troy started their year with a 47-14 win against Middle Tennessee State, a squad that already played a game against Army and wasn’t still figuring out how to hit again. The Blue Raiders aren’t the stiffest competition, but Troy handling them in such dominant fashion is a sign of where Chip Lindsay’s team is at.

Zach Wilson and the Cougars should be the favorite here, but not by this much.

The Pick: Troy +13.5 (-110)

Louisville vs Pittsburgh Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Louisville Cardinals +2.5 (+100) +118 O 55.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh Panthers -2.5 (-120) -144 U 55.5 (-115)

Pick #3: Panthers Get it Done in ACC Matchup

After a primetime drubbing from Miami, the public is all over a bounce back game for Malik Cunningham and Louisville on Saturday. The problem with that thinking is that it also assumes Pitt will be a pushover. That’s far from the truth.

The headline for the Panthers is Kenny Pickett, who has provided Pitt with its best quarterback play in a long time. He’s been great through the first two games of the year, completing 70% of his passes for 492 yards, 3 touchdowns, and just one interception.

Louisville, meanwhile, has had an up-and-down start. The offense has played well, but a defense that is giving up 34 points a game through matchups with Miami and Western Kentucky isn’t very inspiring.

One big aspect of this game is obviously the spread.  At -2.5,  there’s a ton of value in Pitt at home by less than a field goal. With a noon kickoff on, this is a brutal way to try to rebound for the Cardinals.

The Pick: Pitt -2.5 (-120)

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