Myrtle Beach Bowl Picks and Odds – North Texas vs App State
- Appalachian State is a 17.5-point favorite over North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl on Monday, December 21st, (2:30 pm EST)
- The Mountaineers have held enemy offenses to just 19.3 points per game in 2020
- See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction
For the first time in three seasons, Appalachian State won’t be playing for the Sun Belt conference title. Instead, after an 8-3 regular season, the Mountaineers will kickoff the Bowl season with a matchup against North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl on Monday afternoon (Dec. 21, 2:30 pm EST).
Myrtle Beach Bowl North Texas vs App State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | +19.5 (-112) | +630 | Over 62.5 (-110) |
| Appalachian State | -19.5 (-108) | -1050 | Under 62.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Dec. 17th at FanDuel.
Oddsmakers certainly aren’t expecting a barnburner, as Appalachian State opened up as a massive 19-point favorite.
Mean Green meanwhile, is coming off a fourth place finish in the Conference USA West division, but did end their regular season on a high note, winning a 45-43 thriller over UTEP.
Both teams feature high scoring offenses, but while the Mountaineers defense was among the best in the Sun Belt, North Texas struggled on that side of the ball all season.
Appalachian State Will Run Wild
Mean Green’s defense wasn’t just the worst in Conference USA this year, but one of the worst in all of college football. They ranked 123rd out of 127 FBS teams, surrendering 509 total yards and 41.3 points per game.
It’s official @AppState_FB will play (4-5) NORTH TEXAS in the MYRTLE BEACH BOWL pic.twitter.com/rCNny8BIM7
— APP STATE SPORTS NEWS AND FACTS (@AppPredictions) December 14, 2020
That spells trouble against an Appalachian State program that averaged 31.8 points per outing, and ran wild over the competition in 2020. The Mountaineers racked up 243.6 rushing yards per contest, 5.4 yards per carry and 22 rushing TD. The ground attack is in a dream matchup against North Texas, who yielded over 240 rushing yards per game and 26 rushing TD during the regular season.
Here's a look at the longest run of the year from the Mountaineers.
Nate Noel's touchdown, as he followed Henry Pearson through the hole and got a key block from Thomas Hennigan, has helped App State start the half on a 24-3 run. #GoApp pic.twitter.com/zDU73j8HK4
— App State Football (@AppState_FB) December 13, 2020
Not only is the ground game in a favorable spot, but the passing attack is set up for success as well. Mean Green surrendered 265.9 passing yards per outing, and Mountaineers’ QB Zac Thomas was very efficient throwing the ball this season on limited volume. He racked up 19 TD on just 275 attempts, and threw for at least two scores in five of Appalachian State’s final eight games. No matter which way they choose to attack, the Mountaineers offense is going to excel.
Can North Texas Keep Pace?
Despite averaging 35.1 points per contest, North Texas ranked 94th in offensive efficiency according to ESPN’s FPI. That gives you an idea of the type of competition they faced, and it should cast plenty of doubt on their chances for success in this matchup.
It's time for #TheTuddyHour with Jaelon Darden! Part 6⃣ looks at career TDs 32-35 for @biletnikoffawrd semifinalist @JDFlash1x, who is the #MeanGreen's program record holder in career receiving TDs#GMG | #FlashDarden pic.twitter.com/Q3TJw8iIWn
— North Texas Football (@MeanGreenFB) December 14, 2020
Appalachian State held opposing offenses to 314.2 total yards per game, and ranked 35th in defensive efficiency. They averaged 19.3 points against, second best in the Sun Belt, and held six of 11 opponents below 18 points.
If Mean Green is going to find success, it will likely come through leading receiver Jaelon Darden. The Senior caught 74 balls for 1,190 yards this season, while scoring 19 times. He’s a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award, which is handed out to the Nation’s top receiver, and is the program’s all-time leading pass catcher.
The Mountaineers limited enemy passing attacks to 169.8 passing yards per contest, and would be wise to pay Darden extra attention. No other North Texas receiver caught more than 25 passes all season.
The Verdict
Both of these programs were atrocious against the spread this season, combining to go 6-14. The under was very profitable in Appalachian State games (7-4), and I’m not convinced Mean Green is going to be able to put up a ton of points.
North Texas may have averaged 35.1 points per outing, but they were held below 28 on three separate occasions. Each of those games were against inferior defenses than what they’ll face on Monday, and if the Mountaineers can limit Darden, it could be a long afternoon for the Mean Green offense.
Pick: Under 62.5 (-110)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
