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2021 Liberty Bowl Odds and Picks – Predictions for Mississippi State vs Texas Tech

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Dec 27, 2021 · 12:53 PM PST

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers (2) passes against Mississippi during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Thursday, Nov. 25, 2021, in Starkville, Miss. Mississippi won 31-21. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
  • Mississippi State faces Texas Tech in the 2021 Liberty Bowl on Tuesday, December 28th
  • Bulldogs QB Will Rogers has passed for a program-record 4,449 yards this season
  • Read below for Mississippi State vs Texas Tech odds and picks for the Liberty Bowl

Mississippi State (7-5) can secure an eight-win season with a victory over Texas Tech (6-6) in the 2021 Liberty Bowl on Tuesday, December 28th. Kickoff is 6:45 PM EST at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. ESPN will carry the broadcast.

The Bulldogs are being listed as 9.5-point favorites in the Liberty Bowl odds. Bulldogs coach Mike Leach will face his former team for the first time since they fired him in 2009.

Let’s take a look at the Mississippi State vs Texas Tech odds and offer you our Liberty Bowl pick.

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech Odds (Liberty Bowl)

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Mississippi State Bulldogs -9.5 (-115) -365 O 58.5 (-105)
Texas Tech Red Raiders +9.5  (-105) +280 U 58.5 (-115)

Odds as of December 27th at DraftKings

The Liberty Bowl betting line has ticked up in MSU’s direction after opening with the Bulldogs as -8.5 favorites.

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Rogers Leads Explosive MSU Offense

Mississippi State brings it’s lethal air-raid offense into the 2021 Liberty Bowl against Texas Tech. The Bulldogs rank third in the country in passing offense, averaging 385.7 yards per game through the air. QB Will Rogers has thrown for a school-record 4,449 yards and 35 TDs.

The Bulldogs enter the Liberty Bowl having won four of their past five games. Mike Leach’s team has become a money-maker against the spread, covering the number in five of their past six contests. The last time the Bulldogs took the field, however, they lost 31-21 to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.

Rogers is suiting up at quarterback in the Liberty Bowl, but the Bulldogs will be without a few key players. MSU’s left tackle Charles Cross and cornerback Martin Emerson have declared for the NFL Draft and won’t play in the Bowl game. The Bulldogs are allowing 25.3 points per game.

Red Raiders Have Susceptible Defense

Texas Tech brings one of the worst passing defenses in the country into the Liberty Bowl against Mississippi State. The Red Raiders rank 118th in passing defense, allowing 266.4 yards per game through the air. It’s no surprise they’re heavy underdogs against this Mike Leach air-raid offense.

Offensively, Texas Tech boasts a fairly balanced attack. The issue is that they’re missing a key piece for the Liberty Bowl. Red Raiders leading receiver Erik Ezukanma has declared for the NFL Draft and will miss the bowl game. Ezukanma had 2,165 receiving yards during his three years with the program.

Texas Tech has cycled through a few quarterbacks this season, but it appears freshman Donovan Smith will get the start in the Liberty Bowl. The dual-threat pivot passed for two TDs the last time TTU took the field against Baylor on November 27th (27-24 loss).

Texas Tech has lost four of their past five games heading into the 2021 Liberty Bowl. They’ve been 10-point plus underdogs in four straight games, covering the number in two of those contests. Joey McGuire’s team is 6-5-1 ATS overall.

Mississippi State vs Texas Tech Pick & Prediction

The Liberty Bowl odds paint a picture of a explosive pass offense facing one of the worst pass defenses in the country. There’s also a revenge element at play, as the coach of the favored team finally faces the team that fired him all those years ago.

The Red Raiders will have had plenty of time to prepare for MSU’s air-raid offense, so it’ll be interesting to see what tricks Leach has up his sleeve. Rogers should have another monster game, but also look for running backs Dillon Johnson and Jaquavious Marks to get involved in the MSU offense.

With all the talk about players opting out for bowl games, Leach came out and said “It’s one of the biggest absurdities that I have seen and it’s selfish.” TTU will be without their top offensive weapon, while MSU will have their QB who broke Dak Prescott’s single-season passing record.

The Bulldogs should be fired up in this bowl game as they aim for an eight-win season. MSU is playing better football than TTU right now and should rely on their explosive offense to win big Tuesday night in Memphis.

  • Pick: Mississippi State -9.5 (-110)
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