Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Odds, Prediction and Picks
- #18 Wisconsin is a 6.5-point favorite over #12 Notre Dame on Saturday (September 25th, 12 pm ET) at Soldier Field, in Chicago, IL
- The Fighting Irish are 3-0 to start the season, but have yet to post a dominate victory
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Top-20 programs collide on Saturday (Sept. 25th) in Chicago, as #18 Wisconsin (1-1) faces #12 Notre Dame (3-0). The marquee matchup on the Week 4 slate will take place at Soldier Field, home of the Chicago Bears, and will host both ESPN’s and Fox’s pregame college football shows.
The Fighting Irish may be the higher ranked team in the polls, but it’s the Badgers that are getting all the respect from both bettors and bookmakers.
#12 Notre Dame vs #18 Wisconsin Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +190 | +6.5 (-110) | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Wisconsin Badgers | -235 | -6.5 (-110) | U 46.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Sept. 21st at DraftKings.
Wisconsin opened up as a 5.5-point favorite, and that number has already moved a point in the Badgers’ favor. 86% of the early ATS wagers are backing Wisconsin, while 86% of the total tickets are banking on the game staying under 46.5 points.
Kickoff is scheduled for Noon ET on Fox, with a sun-cloud mix and 67 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Notre Dame Underwhelms So Far
The Fighting Irish may be 3-0, but they haven’t exactly looked like world beaters. They needed overtime to beat winless Florida State, after blowing an 18-point fourth quarter lead, squeaked by Toledo, and didn’t pull away from Purdue until the final 10 minutes.
all the way home@realaverydavis @jcoan17 | #GoIrish pic.twitter.com/nMYhrG1JDC
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 21, 2021
Per SP+, Notre Dame ranks 29th offensively, and 20th defensively through three weeks, which is a big disappointment considering they’ve made the College Football Playoff in two of the past three seasons.
Offensively, the issues all lead back to the offensive line. The Fighting Irish lost three 2020 starters to the NFL, and have seen both their first and second string left tackles go down to injuries. They’re averaging just 2.9 yards per carry this season, and that’s with Kyren Williams breaking a 51 and 43 yard run over the past two weeks.
Kyren Williams!!! pic.twitter.com/kpXWPzQ1hx
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 18, 2021
Quarterback Jack Coan, a Wisconsin transfer, has been sacked 14 times in only three games, and last week completed just 50% of his throws against the Boilermakers. The Badgers are stacked on the line on both sides of the ball, and the battle in the trenches could very well dictate how this game plays out.
Defensively, Notre Dame is yielding 380 yards per game to enemy offenses, but has forced six turnovers.
Wisconsin Rebounds After Week 1 Setback
The Badgers enter this contest fresh off an early bye. They dropped a hard fought season opener 16-10 to #6 Penn State, but held the Nittany Lions to their lowest offensive output by far to date.
Wisconsin rebounded nicely in Week 2, handling Eastern Michigan 34-7. The Eagles mustered only 92 yards against the stout Badger defense, and averaged less than 1 yard per rush attempt.
.@matthenningsen is a bad, bad man pic.twitter.com/h6CV82J28k
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) September 12, 2021
The Badgers grade out as the third strongest defense per SP+, and have allowed only 389 total yards through two games. Starting linebacker Leo Chenal is set to return versus Notre Dame after a two-game COVID absence, strengthening the unit even more.
Offensively is where Wisconsin needs work. They’re converting only 36% of their third down opportunities, and have scored just four touchdowns in 10 red zone trips. Graham Mertz, who replaced Coan, has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season, and is averaging only 163 passing yards per game.
Ran the ball … Had some fun 😉 pic.twitter.com/HJDrCyPtK5
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) September 12, 2021
Not surprisingly, the ground game has paced the offense as the Badgers are averaging 263 rushing yards per contest. Chez Mellusi has racked up 265 yards and two scores, while Isaac Guerendo has rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown.
Offense Will Be Tough to Come By
Wisconsin is allowing only 1.8 yards per carry, and given how Notre Dame struggles to rush the ball to begin with, the Badgers are going to make them one dimensional. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Coan and his o-line, and it’s hard to imagine they’re going to hold up.
🙅♂️🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/Rut5PXPA01
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) September 14, 2021
On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin wants nothing more than to run the ball and if they’re successful, they’re going to bleed the clock dry. Dropping Mertz back 30+ times likely isn’t the recipe for success, and if they’re forced to do that, points are going to be tough to come by.
46.5 points is a big number to get over for these two offenses. This game profiles closer to the 16-10 final score from the Badgers’ first matchup with a top-20 team, making the under the play.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
