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Week 7 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Updated Oct 12, 2022 · 6:00 AM PDT

Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei takes a snap
Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (5) takes a snap against NC State during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina Saturday, October 1, 2022. Ncaa Football Clemson Football Vs Nc State Wolfpack
  • Week 7 of College Football features three games involving unbeaten ranked teams
  • Separation Saturday includes big matchups in the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12
  • Read below for the best ATS picks for Week 7 of the college football season

Week 7 offers three games matching teams that are undefeated and ranked inside the top 15 in the AP poll — No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan, No. 6 Tennessee at No. 3 Alabama and No. 8 Oklahoma State at No. 13 TCU.

The Penn State-Michigan winner will join No. 2 Ohio State atop the treacherous Big Ten East, and the Oklahoma State-TCU winner will have the inside track to the Big 12 title. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young’s shoulder injury clouds the Tennessee-Crimson Tide matchup.

Here are CFB betting odds and three ATS picks to consider for Week 7.

Clemson vs Florida State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Clemson Tigers -3.5 (-115) -192 Over 50.5 (-115)
Florida State Seminoles +3.5 (-105) +158 Under 50.5 (-105)

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on Oct 11.

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ATS Pick #1: Clemson (-3.5) vs Florida State

A case can be made that despite its high ranking, Clemson is not the same sort of dominant that Dabo Swinney normally runs out there, although the college football playoff odds might disagree.

While Tigers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei has taken a step forward after struggling to find his footing last season, the Tigers’ defense has not been its traditional smothering self.

Uiagalelei has completed 64 percent of his passes (up from 59 percent a year ago) while flipping his touchdown/interception ratio. He has thrown 14 touchdowns and two interceptions after going 9/10 in 2021. The Tigers have used that as a springboard to an average of 39.3 points and 425 yards per game.

Florida State is much improved behind quarterback Jordan Travis in Mike Norvell’s third season, but the Seminoles enter having lost consecutive games to Wake Forest and North Carolina State (without quarterback Devin Leary in the second half). The Tigers have beaten both.

Clemson has owned this series recently, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five. The Tigers also are 4-1 ATS in the last five in Tallahassee. One more number: Clemson is 33-7 in one-score games since 2011.

  • Pick : Clemson -3.5 (-115)

Oklahoma State vs TCU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma State Cowboys +3.5 (-110) +150 Over 68.5 (-110)
TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 (-110) -175 Under 68.5 (-110)

ATS Pick No. 2: Oklahoma State (+3.5) vs TCU

TCU quarterback Max Duggan has found a perfect fit in new coach Sonny Dykes’ spread attack. Duggan and the Horned Frogs seem to score at will — they have at least 38 points in all five games and are off to a 2-0 start in the Big 12 after victories over Oklahoma (55-24) and Kansas (38-31).

The Horned Frogs are third in NCAA Division 1 in total offense (530) and in scoring (46.4), and Duggan is second behind Ohio State Heisman trophy favorite C.J. Stroud in passing efficiency. Duggan has thrown for 1,305 yards with 14 touchdowns and one interception.

At the same time, Oklahoma State fifth-year quarterback Spencer Sanders has cut down his interceptions appreciably (from 12 last season to two now) and is well ahead of pace for season records in yards and touchdowns as the Cowboys have become the Big 12 favorite in the conference title odds.

Both defenses are giving up more than 400 yards per game, and both are susceptible to the big play. The Cowboys are 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three in the series. While TCU will remember its 63-17 thrashing in Stillwater a year ago, taking the points in this shootout is the way to go.

Oklahoma State is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games, and 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS as a road dog the last two seasons.

  • Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5 (-110)

Penn State vs Michigan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Penn State Nittany Lions +6.5 (-102) +215 Over 52.5 (-105)
Michigan Wolverines -6.5 (-120) -265 Under 52.5 (-115)

ATS Pick No.3: Michigan (-6.5) vs Penn State

It becomes clearer every week why Jim Harbaugh chose sophomore J.J. McCarthy over Cade McNamara at quarterback in Week 2. McCarthy leads NCAA Division I in completion percentage (78.3 percent) with nine touchdowns and one interception, and he ranks fifth in passing efficiency.

The Wolverines are 5th in Division I in total defense and in scoring defense and tied for fifth in sacks.

Penn State true freshman Nicholas Singleton has given fifth-year quarterback Sean Clifford the running back he has missed in previous seasons. Singleton is averaging 92.6 yards per game and has six touchdowns, but Michigan can counter with Blake Corum (122.5 yards per game, 11 scores).

Clifford is 2-1 with a 57.4 completion percentage and four touchdowns against the Wolverines. He was 23 of 43 for 205 yards and one touchdown in a 21-17 home loss last season while being harassed by the Michigan defense, which sacked him seven times.

Penn State is by far the best team the Wolverines have faced this year, but Michigan is 6-2 ATS in the last eight against the Nittany Lions. The total has been under in five of the last six series meetings in Ann Arbor.

  • Pick: Michigan -6.5 (-120)
  • Last week: 2-4 ATS. Season: 20-19 ATS 
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