Alabama vs Kansas State Sugar Bowl Odds, Spread, Pick & Prediction

• #5 Alabama is giving 6.5 points in the Alabama vs Kansas State odds ahead of the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Saturday
• K-State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games versus top-five opponents
• The latest Alabama vs Kansas State odds are listed below, along with analysis and best bets

So it turns out, #5 Alabama (10-2) is playing in a New Year’s Eve Bowl Game after all. It’s just not the one they were hoping for. The Crimson Tide narrowly missed out on making the College Football Playoff, and instead will settle for an Allstate Sugar Bowl appearance versus #9 Kansas State (10-3).

Saturday’s contest will serve as an appetizer for the College Football Playoff semifinals which kickoff shortly after this game concludes. Online sportsbooks are bullish on Alabama’s chances of finishing the season on a winning note, as they’re nearly a touchdown favorite in the college football odds.

Alabama vs Kansas State Odds

Odds as of December 29 at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Allstate Sugar Bowl matchup.

The Crimson Tide are currently laying 6.5 points, in a matchup that features a total of 56. It will mark just the second time Alabama is not a part of the CFB, but bettors are still expecting an inspired effort. The Crimson Tide are currently drawing 80% of the spread wagers as of Wednesday afternoon, and 67% of the ATS money.

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As for the over/under, money is pouring in on over 56. That side is drawing 80% of the over/under tickets, and 86% of all money wagered on the total.

Action is set to get underway at Noon ET inside the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

When lines were originally released, the Crimson Tide were only 4.5-point favorites. The thought was there was a good chance both Alabama’s star QB Bryce Young and star linebacker Will Anderson Jr. might opt out. However, both will be on the field on Saturday.

Both are projected top-five picks in next year’s NFL Draft, and Young is a season removed from winning the Heisman Trophy. He led the Crimson Tide’s offense to the third most points per game this season (41.4), and the 12th most total yards.

Every high school + college athlete should listen to Alabama QB Bryce Young on why he's not skipping the Sugar Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft.

"I wanted to finish with my teammates this season." pic.twitter.com/YbzPDAbV9z

— Teddy Mitrosilis (@TMitrosilis) December 20, 2022

Alabama’s defense meanwhile, finished 13th in points allowed per game (19.6) and fourth in yards per play allowed (4.4). They held all but two opponents below 27 points, but those programs who exceeded that number wound up winnings.

The Crimson Tide’s two losses came by a combined four points. They fell at Tennessee 52-49 and at LSU 32-31. A lucky bounce here or there in one of those outings, and Alabama is likely back in the CFP.

Kansas State Wildcats Betting Analysis

You could argue that motivation may be a problem for Alabama considering they had much loftier 2022 goals. The same cannot be said for Kansas State. The Wildcats are the surprise Big 12 champions, after knocking off #3 TCU in the title game. They closed the year on a four-game winning streak, and beat three teams this year ranked inside the top-10 at the time of their matchup.

This is one of the biggest Bowl Games in program history, and just their seventh New Year’s Six Bowl game ever. Junior QB Will Howard will look to cap off an impressive season, that saw him win all five of his starts after taking over for Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez.

Howard and the Kansas State offense ranked top-25 in the nation in scoring, averaging 33.2 points per game. They were top-19 in points per play (0.477) and converted 91.3% of their red zone possessions into points, the 11th-best mark in college football.

will howard vs bama. pic.twitter.com/jKzKBaf0LY

— Stefan😶‍🌫️ (@RoyalsPlsWin) December 26, 2022

The Wildcats backfield is led by standout RB Deuce Vaughn, who finished 12th nationally in rushing yards (1,425). He eclipsed 100 yards eight times this season, and K-State was undefeated in those contests.

Defensively, the Wildcats were the top-scoring defense in the Big 12. They yielded only 21.8 points per game, and were top-25 in the country in opponent third-down conversation rate (33.9%) and takeaways per outing (1.9).

Alabama vs Kansas State Prediction

With the exception of Mississippi State, Alabama didn’t beat a single opponent that was ranked when they faced them by more than six points. They lost two of those games outright, and beat Texas by just a single point. The Crimson Tide was only 1-4 ATS in those contests, and covered only once in their last eight games overall.

Alabama is just 3-2 both straight up and ATS in non-CFP/BCS Title Bowl Games under Nick Saban as a favorite, while Kansas State has been a cover machine in 2022.

The Wildcats are 9-4 against the number this season, covering in each of their final four contests. They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus top-five opponents, and 6-1 against the spread in their past seven matchups against top-10 teams.

Kansas State’s Last Four Games

Yes, getting both Young and Anderson Jr. on the field is huge for the Crimson Tide, but this program hasn’t been nearly as dominant this year as in previous seasons. Expect a close game but hold off on betting it for now. Given the betting splits, this line is very likely going to get to at least -7 making K-State an even more attractive play.

Pick: Kansas State +6.5 (-110) – wait until kickoff to see if you can get +7