- No. 5 Alabama travels to Mississippi State in Week 7 on Saturday, October 16th at 7:00 PM EST
- The Crimson Tide are 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss
- Read below for the odds, spread and betting prediction
The Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) will look to bounce back from their first loss since 2019 when they visit Mississippi State (3-2) in Week 7 on Saturday, October 16th. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EST on ESPN.
Nick Saban’s team suffered a 41-38 upset loss to Texas A&M last weekend, while the Bulldogs had a bye week. Alabama is being listed as 17-point favorites at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville.
Can Mississippi State hand Alabama a second straight upset loss?
Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds
|Alabama Crimson Tide||-17 (-110)||-850||O 57.5 (-105)|
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||+17 (-110)||+575||U 57.5 (-115)|
Odds as of Oct 13th at DraftKings
Tide Aim For Bounce-Back Effort
Alabama will be looking for a bounce-back performance in Week 7 after suffering an upset loss to Texas A&M in Week 6. The Crimson Tide dropped from No. 1 to No. 5 in the AP Top 25 poll after losing 41-38 to Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies. Alabama was listed as heavy 18.5-point road favorites entering the game.
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 10, 2021
Alabama struggled in the first half against the Aggies, recording a fumble and an interception while allowing QB Bryce Young to be sacked three times. Despite the result, the Tide still got strong performance from their top offensive weapons. Young threw for 369 yards and three TDS, while Jameson Williams had 146 yards receiving and Brian Robinson Jr. added 147 yards rushing.
Alabama has typically performed very well when coming off a loss. The Crimson Tide are 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a defeat. Their last loss was a 48-45 defeat against Auburn on Nov. 30, 2019. Nick Saban’s team followed up that performance with a 35-16 win over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
Bulldogs Have High-Powered Offense
Mississippi State will be relying on its air-raid offense when they try to upset the Crimson Tide in Week 7. Mike Leach’s team ranks fifth in the country with 372 passing yards per game. The Bulldogs had a bye in Week 6 after beating Texas A&M 47-28 in Week 5. They entered the game as +7 underdogs.
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) October 3, 2021
Much like Alabama, Mississippi State has been fairly inconsistent this season. They are only 2-3 ATS and have suffered losses to Memphis and LSU. The big bright spot for the team this season is quarterback Will Rogers, who has averaged around 400 yards passing and three TDs in his last three games.
Having an extra week to prepare for Alabama could appear significant, but the reality is the Bulldogs historically have performed poorly when they’ve had a rest advantage. Mississippi State is 1-8-0 in games following a bye week over the past three years, covering the spread in only two of those contests.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Betting Pick
Florida and now Texas A&M have shown recipes for beating this Alabama team. They’ve been able to win the battles in the trenches and get pressure on sophomore QB Bryce Young. The Bulldogs rank 160th in rushing offense, however, and have only racked up 11 sacks through five games.
How did Bryce Young turn this into a first down?? pic.twitter.com/q53fZ5HB1q
— SEConCBS (@SEConCBS) October 10, 2021
Betting Alabama against the spread following losses has been a profitable betting strategy in recent years. Nick Saban doesn’t lose often, and when he does, he has team very-well prepared for the following week. Young and Jameson Williams are forming a great duo, and they should light up a Bulldogs secondary allowing 372 passing yards per game.
Alabama knows how to contain this pass-first Mississippi State offense, holding the Bulldogs to just seven total points in the last three meetings. The Tide have been favored by an average of 23 points in those games and covered the spread each time. Look for Alabama to bounce back in a big way against Mississippi State on the road.
- Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide -17 (-110)