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Baylor vs Ole Miss Sugar Bowl Odds, Picks and Preview

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Dec 30, 2021 · 10:53 AM PST

Matt Corral winds up to pass
Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral (2) passes against Mississippi State during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Thursday, Nov. 25, 2021, in Starkville, Miss. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
  • Baylor and Ole Miss faceoff in the 2021 Sugar Bowl on Saturday, January 1st
  • Rebels’ quarterback Matt Corral will suit up in his final college game
  • Read below for Baylor vs Ole Miss odds, picks and preview for the Sugar Bowl

Baylor (11-2) and Ole Miss (10-2) will look to include impressive seasons with a victory when they clash in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s night (Saturday, January 1st 2022). Kickoff is 8:45 PM EST at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. ESPN will broadcast the game.

The Rebels are listed as 1-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl odds. Quarterback Matt Corral will play his final college game before entering the NFL Draft.

Let’s take a look at the Baylor vs Ole Miss odds and offer you our pick for the Sugar Bowl.

Baylor vs Ole Miss Odds (Sugar Bowl)

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Baylor Bears +1 (-105) +100 O 55.5 (-105)
Ole Miss Rebels -1Β  (-115) -120 U 55.5 (-115)

Odds as of December 30th at DraftKings

The line has dropped a point over the last few weeks after opening at Ole Miss -2 .

Bears Are Unexpected Big 12 Champs

Baylor will look to build off their Big 12 Championship win over Oklahoma State when they face Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s night. The Bears relied on their elite defense to beat the Cowboys 21-16 in Dallas on Dec. 4th. Dave Aranda’s team was a 4.5-point underdog in the game.

Baylor was a +4000 longshot to win the Big 12 entering the season, as powerhouse Oklahoma had won six straight conference titles. The Bears defense neutralized the Sooners’ offense in an impressive 27-14 victory in November. Baylor ranks 14th in scoring defense (19.2 points allowed per game).

While defense has been Baylor’s calling card, they also have a lethal rushing attack. The Bears have been able to control the tempo with a ground game that averages over 200 yards per contest. Abram Smith is the leader of the backfield with 1,429 rushing yards and 12 TDs, while Trestan Ebner has rushed for 763 yards.

Gerry Bohanon is expected to start at quarterback for Baylor in the Sugar Bowl after missing two games with a hamstring injury. The junior pivot has been fairly efficient, throwing for 2,160 yards and 17 TDs with six interceptions.

Corral Leads Explosive Rebels Offense

Matt Corral will quarterback Ole Miss one final time when his team face Baylor on Saturday. Corral’s decision to play in the game is a primary reason the Rebels are listed as the favorite in the Sugar Bowl odds. The senior pivot is projected to be selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Corral is the leader of this explosive Ole Miss offense, passing for 3,339 yards and 40 TDs with just four picks in 2021. The Rebels rank fourth nationally in total offense, averaging over 500 yards per game. Ole Miss features four rushers with at least 500 yards, including senior Jerrion Ealy (703).

Lane Kiffin’s high-powered offense gets all the attention, but the Rebels’ defense has also improved after a miserable showing in 2020. Ole Miss is only allowing 25 points per game this season, including holding Mike Leach’s air-raid offense toΒ  just 21 points in the 2021 Egg Bowl.

The Rebels feature one of the country’s best defensive players in lineman Sam Williams, who set a school record with 12.5 sacks this season. Williams is expected to be selected in the NFL Draft, but has elected to play in New Orleans. The Rebels currently have no opt-outs for the Sugar Bowl .

Baylor vs Ole Miss Pick & Prediction

The 2021 Sugar Bowl odds paint a picture of two very evenly matched teams duking it out in New Orleans. The Rebels are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation, while the Bears like to slow down the tempo and control the clock with their ground game.

Ole Miss is more battle-tested than Baylor, playing a gauntlet of an SEC schedule that includes opponents such as Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M. The Rebels are 12-2 in their past 14 bowl games and will be extra motivated this year with Corral choosing to suit up one final time.

Ole Miss has dealt with significant injuries throughout the year, but they’re finally fully healthy for a big game. Kiffin did say the team is dealing with a spike in COVID caused by spread of the Omicron variant, but it’s unclear which, if any, players will be unavailable for the Sugar Bowl.

The Bears should be able to move the ball on the ground against this leaky Ole Miss rush defense, but they haven’t surpassed 30 points in any of their last five games. Not many teams can keep pace with this Ole Miss offense when it’s clicking at its full potential.

This is Corral’s final chance to raise his draft stock, and he should find success against a Baylor defense that is more vulnerable though the air than it is on the ground. Look for Williams to get constant pressure on Baylor’s Bohanon, while the Rebels’ explosive offense leads them to victory in the Sugar Bowl

  • Pick: Ole Miss Moneyline (-120)
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