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Central Michigan Injuries Lead to Akron Getting 87% of Betting Handle; Zips Just 1.5-Point Road Underdogs

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Sep 13, 2019 · 10:31 PM PDT

Kato Nelson throwing a pass for Akron.
Kato Nelson leads Akron against Central Michigan in Week 3. Photo from @SunSentinel. (Twitter.)
  • The Akron Zips and Central Michigan Chippewas square off Saturday afternoon (3:00 PM ET, Sep. 14)
  • The Chippewas are currently 1.5-point favorites, but 87% of the betting handle is on the Zips due to key Central Michigan injuries
  • What’s the best ATS bet for AKR-UCM?

The Akron Zips and Central Michigan Chippewas square off this weekend (Saturday, September 14 at 3:00 PM ET) and bettors are hammering the Akron side. The Zips are now just 1.5-point underdogs versus their MAC opponent thanks to a rash of injuries on the Chippewas side.

Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Akron Zips +100 +1.5 (-110) Over 45 (-110)
Central Michigan Chippewas -120 -1.5 (-110) Under 45 (-110)

*All odds taken 09/13/19

In terms of hand, 87% of the betting money is on Akron, which has moved the point spread from UCM -3.5 to UCM -1.5. The Chippewas are 1-1 against the spread so far this season, while the Zips are 0-2 ATS, failing to cover as 18-point and 7.5-point underdogs.

You can see the odds movement experienced at each sportsbook in our Zips vs Chippewas odds page.

Devastated by Injuries

UCM was destroyed last week by Wisconsin but the final score (61-0) wasn’t even the worst blow. The Chippewas lost starting quarterback Quinten Dormady to a knee injury and starting running back Jonathan Ward to a shoulder injury. Both key offensive pieces are out Saturday versus Akron, and UCM doesn’t have suitable replacements.

David Moore will get the start at quarterback, but did little in relief against Wisconsin to inspire confidence. Moore was 3-11 for 1 yard — yes 1 single yard — and doesn’t have the game to take advantage of the Zips’ biggest weakness, which is the deep ball.

Kobe Lewis is expected to handle most the running back work, but his 3.56 average yards per carry isn’t going to threaten Akron’s improving run defense.

Akron will Air it Out

On the other side of the ball, the Chippewas will also be without one of their better pass rushers, Amir Siddiq, which bodes well for the Zips passing game. Kato Nelson threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns last week against UAB (a 31-20 loss), and should find similar success against a UCM pass defense that ranks 114th of 130 FBS teams.

The Chippewas have allowed 599 passing yards and five touchdowns through two games, without recording an interception. Nelson has very good receivers at his disposal, who all have big advantages on the outside, and together they should be able to light up this weak UCM secondary.

Follow the Line Move

This point spread has been attacked and for good reason. This was one of the few winnable games for Akron even before all of the injury news, and now that UCM has been decimated by injury, the Zips look like the more enticing side.

The Chippewas’ back-ups are nowhere near the calibre of their starters, and Nelson and the Akron air attack should put up enough points to pull off the outright upset.

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