BYU vs Notre Dame Odds, Lines and Best Bet

• Notre Dame is a 3.5-point favorite over No. 16 BYU in a Shamrock Series matchup in Las Vegas on Saturday
• The Cougars are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games, failing to cover the spread in three straight
• Read below for BYU vs Notre Dame odds, analysis, and betting prediction

Notre Dame is a 3.5-point favorite against No. 16 BYU in a Shamrock Series matchup at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday (October 8th) at 7:30 pm ET on NBC. The Fighting Irish have won four of the past five meetings against the Cougars, most recently defeating the fellow independent 23-13 back in 2013.

Kilani Sitake’s team is 4-1 this season, but is only 2-6 ATS in its past eight games. Meantime, BYU has failed to cover the spread in three straight games — after being favored in all three.

Let’s analyze the BYU vs Notre Dame odds and find the best bet for Saturday’s Week 6 game.

BYU vs Notre Dame Odds

Odds as of October 5th at Barstool Sportsbook. See the available Barstool Sportsbook promo code. 

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Notre Dame is -175 on the moneyline in the college football odds, meaning they have 63.6% implied win probability.

BYU an Odd(s) ‘Dog

You might find it strange for a program that owns an 11-3 record at UNLV and in five Las Vegas Bowl appearances (dating back to the 2006 season) would be an underdog in Sin City. Plus, BYU’s Provo, Utah campus is considerably closer to Vegas than South Bend, Indiana. But Notre Dame is a very public team and is coming off a pair of victories after starting the season 0-2.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman, on Saturday's Shamrock Series meeting with BYU in Las Vegas: "I'm sure there's going to be a lot of BYU fans there, too…but what makes Notre Dame unique–it's a distinction–is that we have a home game in Las Vegas versus a great opponent."

— Greg Wrubell (@gregwrubell) October 3, 2022

As for the Cougs, they’re coming off a 38-26 home win over Wyoming. BYU — as 26-point favorites — were led by QB Jaren Hall, who threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns on 17-of-27 passing. In what should be a much more competitive game this weekend, can the Cougars knock off a tough Notre Dame squad coming off a bye?

#BYU OC Aaron Roderick gives a lot of praise to Notre Dame's defense during his Coordinators' Corner appearance

– Physical front
– No one has been able to run on them for the past two years
– ND plays a lot of man coverage and are very skilled in the secondary#BYUvsND

— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) October 3, 2022

This is a “do-over” of sorts for BYU. The program failed miserably against Oregon in a 41-20 loss on the national stage. Now, it gets the Irish. Will the Cougars be up for the task?

Pyne Valley

The last time we saw Notre Dame in action, the Irish were beating North Carolina 45-32 in Chapel Hill. Marcus Freeman’s group shredded a lackluster Tar Heel defense to the tune of 576 total yards (289 passing, 287 rushing), with backup quarterback Drew Pyne going 24-of-34 for 289 yards and three touchdown passes.

Drew Pyne's 2022 season before viral video of Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees yelling:
6 Completions
14 Attempts
39 Yards
43% Comp
1 TD
1 INT
2.79 Yards/Attempt

Since:
38 Completions
49 Attempts
406 Yards
78% Comp
5 TD
0 INT
8.29 Yards/Attempt#DYFJ #GoIrish #FreemanEra #NotreDame

— College Football Watcher (@CFBWatcher) October 4, 2022

Pyne is completing close to 70% of his passes over his two starts for 459 yards with an impressive 159.3 passer rating. But he he hasn’t had to push the football downfield, with 26-of-32 of his passes being short ones (0-9 yards). Meantime, he’s only five-of-14 on passing attempts of 10-plus yards. If BYU  can stop the short pass, Notre Dame will be in trouble.

BYU vs Notre Dame Prediction

This game could very well come down to red zone execution. BYU’s allowed the sixth-most red zone trips to opponents (24) in college football, with 15 of those trips resulting in house calls and five ending in field goals. Meantime, Notre Dame’s opponents have scored on 100% (12-for-12) of their red-zone trips.

Defensively, Notre Dame has logged 33 quarterback hurries, with senior defensive end Isaiah Foskey accounting for seven of those. BYU’s offensive line will face a tough test against a Fighting Irish pass rush that grades out as the 34th best per PFF (75.8). Hall’s struggled under pressure this season, completing 13-of-31 pass attempts with 3.6 yards per attempt and a 52.2 passer rating.

But this one figures to be relatively low-scoring. In that type of game script — along with plenty of crowd support — give me the home ‘dog.

Pick: BYU +3.5 (-110)