Upcoming Match-ups

Camping World Bowl Picks & Odds: Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in Last Four Games

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Dec 25, 2019 · 6:36 AM PST

Notre Dame QB Ian Book runs the ball
Ian Book and the Fighting Irish are small 3.5-point favorites over Iowa State in the Camping World Bowl. Photo from @ESPNStatsInfo (Twitter).
  • Notre Dame is a small 3.5-point favorite against Iowa State in the Camping World Bowl
  • The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four games
  • Read below for the odds and how to bet on this matchup

Notre Dame is a small 3.5-point favorite over Iowa State in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Florida on Saturday, December 28 (5:15 PM EST).

The Notre Dame vs Iowa State odds has the Fighting Irish at -170 moneyline favorites as Notre Dame have won five straight games en route to a 10-2 season, while the Cyclones are 7-5 after an up-and-down year in the Big 12.

Notre Dame has more bowl experience, but Brock Purdy leads a dangerous Iowa State pass offense.

 Iowa State vs Notre Dame Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Iowa State +3.5 (-110) +150 O 54.5 (-110)
Notre Dame (#15) -3.5 (-110) -170 U 54.5 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 18

Fighting Irish Are Rolling

Notre Dame enters the Camping World Bowl on a five-game winning streak. The Fighting Irish have bounced back from an upset loss to Michigan at the Big House with consecutive victories over Virginia Tech, Duke, Navy, Boston College and Stanford.

Not only are the Fighting Irish on a winning streak, but they have covered the spread in four straight games. QB Ian Book is playing his best football of the season and the defense has held all five of their most recent opponents to under 25 points.

Iowa State has played lots of close games this season, but they don’t come into this game with much momentum. The Cyclones suffered losses to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State in their last five games of the regular season and went 1-4 ATS in that span.

Ian Book vs Brock Purdy

One of the best QB battles this bowl season pits two talented QB’s against one another. Notre Dame senior Ian Book has thrown for 2,792 passing yards and 33 touchdowns with just six interceptions, while Iowa State sophomore Brock Purdy has thrown for 3,760 passing yards and 27 touchdowns with nine interceptions.

Notre Dame has been very good defending the pass, ranking third nationally with just over 163 yards per game allowed in the air. Part of that success is due to their plus-15 turnover margin and 17 recovered fumbles, both of which are top-five in the country,

In Iowa State’s loss to Oklahoma State, Purdy was picked off three times in the fourth quarter and forced to make tough throws all game. The Cyclones don’t have much of a rush attack, so if Notre Dame can get to Purdy and make him scramble, they’ll have a great chance at winning.

Third Downs Will Be Key 

One area that has hurt Iowa State has been on third downs. The Cyclones rank 79th in third down conversion percentage (.386) and were hurt by their inability to convert in recent losses. Iowa State was just 5 of 16 on third downs against Oklahoma State and 1 of 13 on third downs against Kansas State.

Notre Dame is a top-20 team when it comes to defense on third downs and they can follow suit of Iowa State’s recent opponents to gain the advantage in time of possession. Book has been solid on third downs and the team owns a .415 conversion percentage in those situations.

Bowl History

While these two teams have never played each other before, they both have varying degrees of bowl experience. Iowa State has played 14 bowl games and own a 4-10 record, while Notre Dame has played 37 bowl games and are 17-19 all-time.

The Cyclones have lost three of their last four bowl games, while Notre Dame has won three of its last five. The Fighting Irish also have the edge in coaching as Brian Kelly has coached Notre Dame in eight bowl games. This will be only Matt Campbell’s third bowl with the Cyclones.

Betting Advice

There’s plenty of talent on both these rosters, but Notre Dame has more momentum and holds the advantage in a variety of areas.

Ian Book can go toe-to-toe with Purdy and the Fighting Irish are the better team when it comes to running the ball.

Expect Notre Dame to come up with some big stops on third downs and win the turnover battle to cover the spread en route to an 11-win season.

Pick: Notre Dame (-3.5)

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