- It’s the most wonderful time of the year
- Bowl season props are out, and they’re pretty easy to figure
- The Orange Bowl could be huge for this odds sheet
Bowl Season is upon us, which means that there’s a whole new raft of props to bet on. Sportsbooks have a sheet of Bowl Season props, all of which are pretty easy to calculate. These things happen at a discernible rate, so if you just multiply their 2018 rate by 39 (the number of bowl games) you’ll get a rough figure of the bet’s underlying probability.
2018 Bowl Season Props
All odds are as of Dec. 8, 2018.
Overtime Game Odds
|How Many Games Will Go to Overtime?||Odds|
There were 61 overtime games in college football this year, against just under 800 games. That’s a rate of about 8%, which (all else being equal) would yield about three overtime games in bowl season. However, Bowl games are supposed to be comprised of more or less equally-matched teams, so you should see a slightly higher number of games go to overtime.
Our pick: Over!
Largest Margin of Victory Odds
|What Will Be the Largest Margin of Victory in a Bowl Game?||Odds|
There were 83 games that match this criteria in the 2018 season, although a lot of them involved FCS teams or Louisville. Bowl games are supposed to be a little more even, although huge mismatches do occur.
Our pick: Smash that under.
Receiving Yards Odds
|Will a Player Record 250 or More Receiving Yards?||Odds|
It happened twice this year. Andy Isabella of UMass and Antoine Wesley of (you guessed it) Texas Tech had 303 and 261 yards, respectively. Isabella averaged 33.7 yards per catch in that game.
Our pick: Not gonna happen.
Rushing Yards Odds
|Will a Player Record 250 or More Rushing Yards?||Odds|
Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin did it this twice this year, and rushed for 321 yards in a 47-44 win over Purdue. JJ Taylor (of Arizona) ran for 284 against Oregon State. That’s three for the J Taylors. Altogether we’re talking about 11 games, which figures to be a pretty low probability of happening in a bowl.
Our pick: Nope.
Passing Yards Odds
|Will a Player Record 530 or More Passing Yards?||Odds|
This happened in five games this year. Will Grier did it against Oklahoma! I’ll say no.
If it happens, it’ll happen in the Orange Bowl.
We should all take a minute to appreciate Purdue quarterback David Blough, who went 39-55 for 572 yards and three touchdowns. In a loss.
Our Pick: Sadly, no.
Touchdown Passes Odds
|Will a Player Throw 6 or More Touchdown Passes?||Odds|
The most recent player to achieve this was Gardner Minshew, who threw seven touchdowns in the Washington State/Arizona game. Tua came close, throwing five against Auburn and four against Arkansas, but was pulled out of both those games. Maybe if Alabama/Oklahoma lives up to its promise?
Our pick: Don’t think it’ll happen.
Double Overtime Odds
|Will Any Games Go to Double Overtime?||Odds|
Our Pick: I think +130 is actually great value here.
Triple Overtime Odds
|Will Any Game Go to Triple Overtime?||Odds|
Texas A&M and LSU went to seven OT’s, so anything’s possible.
What a bizarre game.
|Will Any Team Get Shutout?||Odds|
Only 12 shutouts this year, and three of them were on UTEP. Alabama scored two against SEC competition. It’s not likely, but it certainly happens. Hey, Ohio State got shut out of a Playoff game!
Our Pick: +150 might actually be good value.
Points Scored Odds
|Will Any Team Score 63 or More Points?||Odds|
There were 40 games this year in which one team scored 63 or more points. Two teams who did it, Oklahoma and Alabama, are playing each other on December 29th. Again, a lot of those games featured FCS teams/Louisville, but a lot of them didn’t! Both teams in the LSU/Texas A&M game cleared this mark comfortably.
Our Pick: Sure! +175 is great odds.