College Football Upset Picks Today (Saturday, Sept. 9)

• Welcome to another edition of Big Dog Saturday
• Rice, California and Tulane are prime candidates to overcome the number
• Read below for analysis and predictions for college football Week 2 upsets

The second Saturday of college football season provides another opportunity to make the moneyline your friend.  Live underdogs are never out of fashion, and this week supplies more evidence.

Rice is a strong play against cross-town rival Houston for the Bayou Bucket. California has a running game that will cause problems for visiting Auburn, which has a 1,900-mile flight to the Bay Area and will make its first visit to the West Coast since a 24-17 loss to Carson Palmer and USC in the 2002 opener. Tulane was 12-2 ATS in 2022 and remains undervalued.

FYI, the line on all three plays here moved toward the underdog late in the week.  Let’s get ready to rumble.

Houston vs Rice Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 9. Check out the top College Football Betting Apps for making upset picks today. 

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Upset Pick #1: Rice Takes Bayou Bucket

Both schools here are stepping up in class this season, Rice from Conference USA to the American Athletic and Houston from the AAC to the Big 12. Rice has added wandering quarterback JT Daniels, who is in his sixth season after stops at Southern California, Georgia and West Virginia. His production has never quite lived up to his big arm, but wideouts Luke McCaffrey (of the Denver McCaffreys) and Bradley Rozner will help.

TOUGH catch from Luke McCaffrey 😤 pic.twitter.com/7DizKlS6TB

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 2, 2023

The Owls had a minus-3 turnover margin (two Daniels picks) in a 37-10 loss to No. 11 Texas last week, but Houston’s defense can be as porous as Texas’s can be dominant. The Cougars lost top offensive contributors quarterback Clayton Tune and wideout Tank Dell to the NFL from an 8-win team a year ago. They gave up 417 yards total offense with a plus-3 turnover margin in a 17-14 squeaker over UTSA last week, although they have a 77.8% implied win probability according to the moneyline.

Neither is expected to contend for the title in the CFB conference championship odds, but five-win Rice covered big numbers at home in wins over Louisiana (+11.5) and UAB (+10) last season and has 15 starters back from the team that lost 34-27 at Houston (5.1 miles away) a year ago when the Cougars returned a fumble for a score with 3:34 left.

• Pick: Rice (+275)

Auburn vs California Odds

Odds from BetMGM on Sept. 8.

Upset Pick #2: California Runs Past Tigers

California’s offense will be perkier this season under new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who debuted with a 58-21 victory over rebuilding North Texas last week. Sophomore 6’0 sophomore halfback Jaydn Ott had 178 yards rushing against the Mean Green and had a 274-yard game against Arizona last season. The moneyline gives the Golden Bears a 35.7 implied win probability.

All gas no brakes for Jaydn Ott 💥 pic.twitter.com/BKsheBpb4G

— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) September 2, 2023

North Carolina State transfer quarterback Ben Finley threw for 279 yards after replacing injured starter Sam Jackson V early last week,  but Jackson is expected to be back for this one and is a good fit in Spavital’s up-tempo offense. Auburn gave up 395 yards and 29.5 points per game in 2022, and while the Bryan Harsin drama is in the past, the Tigers are rebuilding under new coach Hugh Freeze. They hammered outclassed UMass 59-14 in the opener but the Minuteman, playing from behind from the early second quarter, still averaged 5.2 yards per rush.  Auburn is 1-5 SU and ATS in road openers.

• Pick: California (+180)

Ole Miss vs Tulane Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook on Sept. 8.

Upset Pick #3: Tulane Stops Ole Miss

Michael Pratt is the best quarterback that too many do not know. Pratt and halfback Tyjae Spears led the Green Wave to a 12-win season capped by a comeback victory over USC in the Cotton Bowl. Athletic Pratt passed for 3,009 yards, rushed for 478 and accounted for 37 touchdowns with five interceptions in 2022 and opened with 343 yards total offense in a 37-17 win over South Alabama a week ago,  when Ole Miss and quarterback Jaxon Dart (334 yards passing, four touchdowns) walloped FCS Mercer 73-7 as it should.

The Green Wave are not fazed by the number. It won 17-10 at Kansas State as a 14-point dog last season and also won the other three times it was an underdog, including the Cotton. Bowl. Tulane was 12-2 ATS a year ago even if is has not translated into the college football odds. Ole Miss was 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six a year ago, forcing Lane Kiffin into the portal for reinforcements. Them moneyline gives Tulane a 29.4 percent implied win probability.

• Pick: Tulane (+240)

Last week: +1.75 units