- Our longest shot from last week came through as Mizzou upset Florida.
- Three upside-down lines this week.
- Pitt should never be a favorite, and I’m a Pitt fan.
Finding good upsets is getting harder and harder, but hopefully late-season injury problems and bad weather will help us out.
College Football Week 10 Upset Picks Results
|Texas A&M (+160)||L|
That Missouri wins puts us dead even for the week, and narrow losses for A&M and Iowa leave us sorely disappointed.
College Football Week 11 Upset Picks
I feel good about these picks this week. Our odds come from Bovada.
Texas at Texas Tech
|Texas (#15)||-2.0 (-115)||-130|
|Texas Tech||+2.0 (-105)||+110|
Texas Tech is the better team, and they’re also a home underdog. They kept up with a post-Mike Stoops Oklahoma just fine, and can give Texas a run for their money in Lubbock.
As much as I like what Texas has achieved this year, and I will die on the “Texas is fine, actually” hill just as soon as someone shows it to me, I hate them as a road favorite. Their offense just isn’t productive enough to keep up with Texas Tech, and while their defense is good, it probably isn’t good enough to shut down the Red Raiders.
Miami at Georgia Tech
|Georgia Tech||-3.0 (-120)||-165|
Yes, I’m scared of Georgia Tech. In fact, I’m terrified of Paul Johnson, and I’ll take the Yellow Jackets any time they’re too big of an underdog against a struggling team. I believe in the triple option, and particularly its ability to produce upsets.
But Georgia Tech isn’t the underdog here. They’re the favorite, after losses to Pitt, Duke, Clemson, and South Florida. I’m not saying that Miami is a great team, they’re not visibly capable of moving the ball whatsoever, just that they’re a measurably better team and the underdog. I’ll take them.
Virginia Tech at Pitt
|Virginia Tech||+3.0 (-105)||+130|
Yes, Pitt is leading the ACC Coastal. No, that won’t last long. That’s just not how Pitt operates.
This game is a toss-up at best. Virginia Tech is still a good enough team to control Pitt, and there is no team in college football worse at handling favorite status than Pitt.