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College Football Week 7 Upset Picks: Michigan is Ripe for an Upset

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in College Football

Oct 11, 2018 · 12:40 PM PDT

Wisconsin Football
Can Wisconsin pull off the biggest upset on its schedule? We think so! Photo by Phil Roeder (flickr) [CC License].
  • Another positive week leaves us up 7.7 units on the season heading into Week 7
  • Kentucky is on a bye
  • Can Wisconsin come through for us on the road?

A good week last week, let’s keep the SBD College Football Upsets Picker  on a roll.

College Football Week 6 Upset Picks Result

Our Pick Result
Minnesota (+230) L
Arizona (+125) W
Kentucky (+175) L

Only Arizona came through for us. That payouts leave us down 0.75 units for the week, and 5.95 units on the season.

College Football Week 7 Upset Picks

Wisconsin at Michigan

Team Spread Moneyline
Wisconsin (#15) +9.0 (-110) +290
Michigan (#12) -9.0 (-110) -380

Michigan took an early season loss to the now highly-ranked Notre Dame, so their record is looking pretty good now. That said, they are ripe for an upset, as their last three games have been against unranked teams, and bad ones at that. SMU is bad. Northwestern is slightly bad. Nebraska is really bad. Maryland isn’t great.

Of course, Wisconsin has its own problems. The Badgers lost to a BYU team that is now 86th in S&P+. That doesn’t bode well for playing the Wolverines, but since Wisconsin and Michigan are so close in S&P+, and since Michigan has struggled against ranked opponents, there could be an upset brewing here.

Also: Jim Harbaugh loves to disappoint like this.

Ball State at Central Michigan

Team Spread Moneyline
Ball State +3.0 (-115) +125
Central Michigan -3.0 (-105) -145

I don’t have a lot to say about this game other than the fact that Ball State is the slightly better team. Both teams are measurably bad, so picking the upset in these games always makes sense. Here’s Central Michigan getting comfortably beaten by Michigan State:

I will say that Central Michigan is truly awful on offense, ranking last in offensive S&P+. Their offense is actually pretty efficient, but they’ve never had a chance for that to really matter yet. The Cheppewas got lit up by Kansas, who remain extremely bad in all aspects of the game.

Ball State is the slightly more efficient, balanced team in a matchup of truly bad football teams. Setting any kind of “favorite” for this kind of game is silliness, so we’ll pick the upset.

Duke at Georgia Tech

Team Spread Moneyline
Duke +2.5 (-110) +115
Georgia Tech -2.5 (-110) -135

I know, I know, you don’t want to bet against Georgia Tech after they whooped Louisville, particularly not at home.

Here’s why Duke’s ready to upset Georgia Tech, and Louisville wasn’t: Duke has a competent, above-average defense and a serviceable offense. Louisville doesn’t. Duke’s already handled an option team this year, the perfectly capable Army, and Louisville has not. Louisville hired Brian VanGorder, against whom Paul Johnson has a decades long feud, and Duke has not. Everything’s coming up Duke!

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