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Florida Is a 6.5-Point Underdog vs Georgia in Week 10 in Jacksonville; Gators 4-0-1 ATS In Last 5

Florida Gators football stadium
The Florida Gators clash with the rival Georgia Bulldogs as big underdogs in Week 10. Photo from Wikimedia Commons.
  • #8 Georgia and #6 Florida square off on Saturday (3:30 PM ET, Nov. 2)
  • The Bulldogs opened as 3.5-point favorites, but that line has already been bet up to -6.5
  • The Gators are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five

It’s only fitting that the biggest game on this week’s college football schedule is known as the World’s Largest Cocktail Party. Eighth-ranked Georgia (6-1, 3-1 SEC) takes on sixth-ranked Florida (7-1, 4-1 SEC) in Jacksonville, and while the city will be partying all weekend, the loser won’t be in any kind of mood to celebrate.

That’s because whoever wins this game will be the overwhelming favorite to win the SEC East, while the loser will be effectively eliminated from the Four-Team College Football Playoff. Georgia opened as 3.5-point favorites, but that number didn’t last very long.

#8 Georgia vs #6 Florida Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Georgia Bulldogs -240 -6.5 (-108) Over 46.5 (-105)
Florida Gators +200 +6.5 (-112) Under 46.5 (-115)

All odds taken Oct. 29.

Our Bulldogs vs Gators odds and matchup page show this line has been hit hard in Georgia’s favor, and they’re now favored by 6.5-points. If it gets to the key number 7, a buy back on Florida is extremely likely, but it’s clear who the early money is backing.

Georgia has won the last two matchups in the series in convincing fashion. They’ve outscored the Gators 78-24 and have held them to 275 yards or fewer in each meeting.

Is Georgia the Right Side?

The Bulldogs certainly haven’t looked like a championship contender over their last couple games. Three weeks ago, they suffered a shocking double-overtime defeat to South Carolina, and they followed that up with an ugly win at Kentucky.  They racked up a season low 270 yards yards on offense against the Wildcats (21-0 in a slop-fest), and were bailed out by their fantastic defense.

Georgia’s D has already posted two shutouts in seven games, and are allowing just 10.6 points per game. The most points anyone has scored on them in regulation this season is 17, and no team in the SEC allows fewer yards per game than the Bulldogs.

On offense, they’re carried by D’Andre Swift and the conference’s number one rushing attack, but their passing game has struggled. Jake Fromm is no longer a Heisman candidate and a matchup versus the Gators defense isn’t something to look forward to.

Fallen Fromm Grace

Florida boasts one of the Nation’s best pass rushes, and two of its key ingredients will be back in the lineup on Saturday. The return of Jon Greenard and Jabari Zuniga spells trouble for Fromm who, from a statistical standpoint, is having a very down year. He threw 30 touchdown passes on 306 pass attempts last season, but has just 9 TD throws on 174 attempts in 2019.

He threw for a career-low 35 yards in the rain-soaked affair versus Kentucky, and has recorded just two multi-touchdown games all season. He’s 9-5 versus top-25 teams in his career, but only one of those wins was against a top-6 program. Now he has to face a Gators team that allows less than 200 passing yards per game, and recently held #11 Auburn to its lowest point total of the year (13)

Expect Florida to sell out to stop the run and force Fromm to beat them through the air.

Grab the Points with the Gators

These two teams are very evenly matched so taking the points with the Gators seems like a no-brainer. The Bulldogs defense is getting a lot of hype, but they have yet to be truly tested. They’ve faced multiple third-string quarterbacks over the past few weeks, and have beaten up on the SEC’s three worst pass offenses. The one legit offense they faced was Notre Dame, and the Fighting Irish had little issue moving the ball against them.

The Gators, meanwhile, went toe-to-toe with #1 LSU before fading down the stretch, ultimately losing 42-28 in a game that was tied late in the third quarter. Just before their bye last week, they posted a convincing win (38-27) against the same Gamecocks team that upset Georgia.

Florida’s price is too good to pass up.

Pick: Florida +6.5 (-112)

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