Florida vs UCF Odds, Picks and Predictions for 2021 Gasparilla Bowl

• Florida faces UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl on Thursday, December 23rd
• Emory Jones will play his final game for UF before entering the transfer portal
• Read below for Florida vs UCF odds, picks and predictions

Two of the top teams from the Sunshine State are finally set to renew their rivalry. Florida (6-6) and UCF (8-4) face off in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl on Thursday, December 23 (7:00 PM ET). ESPN will carry the broadcast.

The Gators are listed as touchdown favorites at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. Quarterback Emory Jones will suit up in his final game for UF before entering the transfer portal.

Can the Knights spring the upset in the Gasparilla Bowl? Let’s take a look at the Florida vs UCF odds and offer you our pick.

Florida vs UCF Odds

Odds as of December 22nd at DraftKings

The line has yo-yoed from seven to 6.5-points over the last few weeks leading up to Thursday night’s game.

Jones Leads Depleted Gators

Florida’s chances of winning the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl depend heavily on junior quarterback Emory Jones. The dual-threat pivot will suit up one final time for the Gators before entering the transfer portal. Jones has passed for 2,563 yards and 19 TDs, while leading the team with 696 rushing yards.

BREAKING: Florida Gators QB Emory Jones is entering the transfer portal, per @yahoosports. pic.twitter.com/svf3r2j9Rm

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 16, 2021

Jones threw three picks in his last game against Florida State (24-21 W) to give him 13 interceptions on the season. He’ll be without his favorite target Jacob Copeland (transfer) for the Gasparilla Bowl. Freshman QB Anthony Richardson has also been ruled out due to a knee injury.

Coaching is a concern for Florida heading into Thursday’s matchup with UCF. The Gators fired head coach Dan Mullen in November and have since hired Billy Napier to be his replacement. It’ll be interim head coach Greg Knox, however, who will be calling the shots Thursday.

One of Florida’s biggest issues this season has been defense, as they’re allowing 26.6 points and 362 yards per game. It goes from bad-to-worse with news that top defensive end Zachary Carter (32 tackles, 8 sacks) has opted out and declared for the NFL Draft and will not play in the bowl game.

Keene Era Underway at UCF

UCF freshman QB Mikey Keene will look to continue his strong play when he faces Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl. The young pivot has led the Knights to a 6-3 record since taking over for former starter Dillon Gabriel back in September. Gabriel has since announced his transfer to UCLA.

Mikey Keene on Dillon Gabriel’s departure for UCLA: #UCF #ChargeOn pic.twitter.com/tA2DeGQN2L

— CHRIS TORELLO 𝕏 (@TorelloSports) December 20, 2021

The Knights have a balanced offense with threats in both the passing and running game. Keene has thrown for 1,586 yards and 16 TDs with six picks, while RB’s Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson have both topped 500 yards on the ground. Ryan O’Keefe (727 YDS) is the leader of the receiver group. 

Similar to Florida, the Knights have struggled on the defensive side of the ball this season. Gus Malzahn’s team is allowing 25.2 points and 369 yards per game. They’ve had a couple strong outings, lately, however and have done a good job forcing turnovers. UCF’s defense has nine interceptions on the season.

Florida vs UCF Pick & Prediction

Just how motivated is Florida going to be in this game against UCF? The Gasparilla Bowl odds suggest the Gators are the better team on paper, but you have to factor in external elements. This is already a lost season for UF and their starting QB is probably already thinking about his next team.

Gators fans were wanting Anthony Richardson to start all season, so it’s not like there’s a stage being set for an incredible send-off performance from Jones. If anything, the Knights should be motivated to get their freshman QB Keene the victory in his final game of the season.

.@Mikey_Keene showing off the speed 💨 pic.twitter.com/0jPc3C4nLv

— UCF Football (@UCF_Football) November 20, 2021

Florida is going to rely on their running game against UCF, as Jones is turnover-prone and will be without his favorite receiving target. This Knights rush defense has been fairly solid, however, holding opponents to an average of 155 yards per game on the ground.

The value is with UCF and the points in the Gasparilla Bowl odds. The Knights are playing the better football and will motivated to beat their in-state rivals for the first time (0-2). The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five games and these key opt-outs will prove costly against this improving UCF squad.

• Pick: UCF +7 (-105)