Florida vs Florida State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Picks

• The #19 Florida State Seminoles are 9.5-point home favorites over the Florida Gators in their college football game slated for Friday, November 25
• Florida State is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in which the Seminoles were favored over the Gators
• The Seminoles are riding a four-game win streak heading into this contest

Last year, for the first time in four years, the Florida State Seminoles (8-3, 8-3 ATS) were able to cover against the Florida Gators (6-5, 6-5 ATS). This year, oddsmakers are liking the Seminoles’ chances of winning outright over the Gators.

The #19 Seminoles are established as 9.5-point home favorites over the Gators in the CFB odds in this annual grudge match for state bragging rights. They’re 4-2 against the spread in the last six games against the Gators.

Florida vs Florida State Odds

Odds as of November 22 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook bonus code here.

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The kickoff for this game at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium is set at 7:30 pm ET on Friday, November 25. It’s the first time in the history of this rivalry dating back to 1904 that will see the game played on a Friday. The weather forecast is calling for rain, 7 mph wind and a temperature of 75 degrees. Broadcast of the game is being carried by ABC.

Florida vs Florida State Betting Trends

In the public betting splits, it’s the favored Seminoles who are getting all the love. In spread wagering, 57% of handle and 52% of bets in public money are going with the Seminoles. The public also likes Florida State in the moneyline with 51% of handle and 83% of bets.

As far as the total, the public is ignoring the history of this rivalry by going with the over. There’s 90% of handle and 55% of bets expecting that the two teams will exceed the 58-point total for this game. Only eight of the past 25 games between the Seminoles and Gators have gone over. The under was the winning play in eight of the last 11 games at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Seminoles On A Roll

Second in the ACC, the Seminoles aren’t just winning games. They are crushing opponents. They’ve won their last four games, each by a margin of at least 25 points.

Mike Norvell on Florida State vs. Florida: “When you get to this one, this is one that is going to be remembered.”

— Carter Karels (@CarterKarels) November 21, 2022

The Florida State defense hasn’t permitted a first-half touchdown since an October 15 loss to Clemson. As far as the offense, Florida State ranks 16th in the nation in total offense (473.7 yards per game) and 23rd in scoring offense (35.4 points per game).

During the month of November, Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis has completed 81.6% of his passes (40-of-49) for 469 yards. He’s tossed for seven TDs and been picked off just once. The fifth-year junior is showing a passer rating of 205.1 this month. Travis has also run for three TDs.

Gators Stumbling To Finish Line

This is the kind of year it’s been for Florida. Last week, the Gators lost to Vanderbilt for the first time since 2013 and at Vanderbilt for the first time since 1988.

Florida is 92nd in the NCAA at stopping the run (171.5 yards per game allowed). That doesn’t bode well facing Florida State’s #14 in the nation rushing offense (217.0 yards per game). After rushing for 653 yards in the two previous games, Florida was held to 45 yards on 21 carries by Vanderbilt.

Rivalry week is upon us. 🐊#GoGators | #jOURney pic.twitter.com/rY8MSarsim

— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) November 21, 2022

In the loss to the Commodores, Florida QB Anthony Richardson threw for 400+ yards for the second time this season, but with intercepted for the first time since October. 8. The Gators will be without LB Ventrell Miller for the first half of this game. He’s suspended for targeting.

Florida vs Florida State Prediction

The Gators are 3-3 ATS in the past six games at Florida State. But they are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games and 1-6 straight up in the last seven road games. Florida is 2-3 SU over the past five games but 3-2 ATS. Against ranked teams, the Gators are 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS.

The Seminoles are 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 9.5+ points this season. In the last six Florida vs Florida State games against the Gators in which the favorite was a pick of 9.5 points or more, the chalk is 5-1 ATS.

Pick: Florida State Seminoles -9.5 (-110)