Upcoming Match-ups

Fresno State vs Boise State Picks and Odds

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in College Football

Updated Oct 7, 2022 · 9:07 AM PDT

oise State Broncos running back George Holani celebrates his touchdown
Sep 30, 2022; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos running back George Holani (24) celebrates his touchdown during second half at Albertsons Stadium against the San Diego State Aztecs. Boise State defeats San Diego State 35-13. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
  • Boise State is a 7.5-point favorite over Mountain West rival Fresno State on Saturday
  • The Broncos are 1-3 ATS this season, while the Bulldogs are 0-3
  • Read below for Fresno State vs Boise State odds, analysis, and betting prediction

Boise State is a 7.5-point home favorite as the Broncos look to remain perfect on the blue turf in 2022 against Fresno State at Albertsons Stadium in Boise on Saturday (October 8th) at 9:45 pm ET on FS1.

The Broncos are 1-3 ATS so far this season, while the Bulldogs are 0-3.

Let’s analyze the Fresno State vs Boise State odds and find the best bet for Saturday’s Week 6 game.

Fresno State vs Boise State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fresno State Bulldogs +7.5 (-110) +235 O 45.5 (-112)
Boise State Broncos -7.5 (-110) -305 U 45.5 (-109)

Odds as of October 7th at Barstool Sportsbook. See the available Barstool Sportsbook promo code. 


Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

Excludes MA.
& GET $1,050



Boise State is -305 on the moneyline in the college football odds, meaning they have 75.3% implied win probability.

Depleted Dogs Attack

Fresno State will be without two of its captains (and two best players)  — senior quarterback Jake Haener and senior safety Evan Williams — when the Bulldogs open conference play in Idaho. The duo missed an embarrassing 19-14 loss to Connecticut last week in a game that saw Haener’s backup, Logan Fife, fumble on the first possession.

Fresno State generated only 187 yards of total offense and converted just 14 first downs in losing to a team that had not beaten an FBS program other than UMass since 2017. To make matters worse, Fresno State was 0-for-7 on third downs. And adding injury to insult, the Dogs lost even more players in the humiliating defeat. Offensive tackle Dontae Bull, linebacker Raymond Scott and receiver Josh Kelly are all questionable to play on Saturday.

Fife will make his second start at quarterback after going 16-for-22 throwing for 157 yards and a pair of picks against the Huskies.

Without its emotional leader on offense in Haener, Fresno State will be hard-pressed to re-create the magic it experienced in the Mountain West title game four years ago, when the program beat Boise State at home in overtime 19-16 on a snow-covered field.

Broncos Gaining Momentum

Boise State scored 35 unanswered points its last time out to come from behind and beat San Diego State at Albertsons Stadium last Friday.

The second-half effort was led by the Broncos’ three-headed monster of quarterback Taylen Green and running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, with Holani and Green each eclipsing the 100-yard mark on the ground and scoring two touchdowns apiece.

Prior to beating the Aztecs, the Broncos ranked 106th in the FBS in rushing offense (120.2 yards per game). After game five, Boise State jumped to 159.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 66th in the FBS.  The program is 9-0 when Holani rushes for at least 100 yards — and 1-0 running former Bronco and NFL head coach Dirk Koetter’s offense. Look for Boise State to continue to run a dynamic scheme under the experienced play-caller.

Defensively, senior linebacker DJ Schramm was named Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week after leading the team with 11 tackles in the 22-point victory. He also turned in a career-best nine solo tackles and added four tackles-for-loss and forced a fumble.

Boise State now ranks fourth in the country in yards per game allowed in 2022, surrendering just 236.2 yards per contest.

The Broncos are No. 3 in the FBS in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 22.4% of their third downs. Boise State has played five games so far. Opponents have attempted 10 or more third downs with one-or-less conversions three times.

Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction

With the Bulldogs season on the brink and the Broncos riding a wave of momentum, this one seems like an utter mismatch.

Then, when you consider how strong Boise State’s defense is playing, it’s a virtual lock. Give the points and take the home team in this spot.

The pick: Boise State – 7.5 (-110)

Author Image