Fresno State vs Boise State Picks and Odds
By Blair Johnson in College Football
Updated: September 19, 2024 at 9:12 am EDTPublished:
- Boise State is a 7.5-point favorite over Mountain West rival Fresno State on Saturday
- The Broncos are 1-3 ATS this season, while the Bulldogs are 0-3
- Read below for Fresno State vs Boise State odds, analysis, and betting prediction
Boise State is a 7.5-point home favorite as the Broncos look to remain perfect on the blue turf in 2022 against Fresno State at Albertsons Stadium in Boise on Saturday (October 8th) at 9:45 pm ET on FS1.
The Broncos are 1-3 ATS so far this season, while the Bulldogs are 0-3.
Let’s analyze the Fresno State vs Boise State odds and find the best bet for Saturday’s Week 6 game.
Fresno State vs Boise State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State Bulldogs | +7.5 (-110) | +235 | O 45.5 (-112) |
| Boise State Broncos | -7.5 (-110) | -305 | U 45.5 (-109) |
Odds as of October 7th at Barstool Sportsbook. See the available ESPN Bet promo code.
Boise State is -305 on the moneyline in the college football odds, meaning they have 75.3% implied win probability.
Depleted Dogs Attack
Fresno State will be without two of its captains (and two best players) — senior quarterback Jake Haener and senior safety Evan Williams — when the Bulldogs open conference play in Idaho. The duo missed an embarrassing 19-14 loss to Connecticut last week in a game that saw Haener’s backup, Logan Fife, fumble on the first possession.
For the first time since 2019, UConn has beaten an FBS school 👏
They upset Fresno State as 24-point underdogs.pic.twitter.com/AfYjgCZwZJ
— 247Sports (@247Sports) October 1, 2022
Fresno State generated only 187 yards of total offense and converted just 14 first downs in losing to a team that had not beaten an FBS program other than UMass since 2017. To make matters worse, Fresno State was 0-for-7 on third downs. And adding injury to insult, the Dogs lost even more players in the humiliating defeat. Offensive tackle Dontae Bull, linebacker Raymond Scott and receiver Josh Kelly are all questionable to play on Saturday.
Fife will make his second start at quarterback after going 16-for-22 throwing for 157 yards and a pair of picks against the Huskies.
First person to text Logan Fife after the UCONN game was Jake Haener. Said one game can’t define who he is as a player. #9 had a similar tough start to his career at Washington. @ABC30 pic.twitter.com/SslcW2fCdt
— Stephen Hicks (@StephenABC30) October 4, 2022
Without its emotional leader on offense in Haener, Fresno State will be hard-pressed to re-create the magic it experienced in the Mountain West title game four years ago, when the program beat Boise State at home in overtime 19-16 on a snow-covered field.
Broncos Gaining Momentum
Boise State scored 35 unanswered points its last time out to come from behind and beat San Diego State at Albertsons Stadium last Friday.
The second-half effort was led by the Broncos’ three-headed monster of quarterback Taylen Green and running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, with Holani and Green each eclipsing the 100-yard mark on the ground and scoring two touchdowns apiece.
Boise State (-6.5) beat San Diego State 35-13, winning yardage 450-114, yards-per-play 6.8 to 2.2, third downs 43-7%, and rushing 316-81. Current ESPN box isn't showing drive info. SDSU just 1/14 on 3D's, with a 2-16-1-33 passing line for the night. First ATS W for Boise TY.
— Jeff Fogle (@JeffFogle) October 1, 2022
Prior to beating the Aztecs, the Broncos ranked 106th in the FBS in rushing offense (120.2 yards per game). After game five, Boise State jumped to 159.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 66th in the FBS. The program is 9-0 when Holani rushes for at least 100 yards — and 1-0 running former Bronco and NFL head coach Dirk Koetter’s offense. Look for Boise State to continue to run a dynamic scheme under the experienced play-caller.
#BoiseState is inducting a new Athletic Hall of Fame class in November. At this point, do officials scramble to find room for Dirk Koetter?
-1998-2000: Launched the most successful era in program history
-Sept. 30, 2022: Saved a season in 30 minutes#Joking#NotJoking— 𝐌𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 (@MikeFPrater) October 1, 2022
Defensively, senior linebacker DJ Schramm was named Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week after leading the team with 11 tackles in the 22-point victory. He also turned in a career-best nine solo tackles and added four tackles-for-loss and forced a fumble.
In 2012, the BYU defense had a stretch of 3 games where they didn't allow a touchdown (pick six in the Boise State game). Both Boise State and Utah State would finish the season ranked in the Top 25.
Good times. That defense wasn't "bend but don't break," they didn't even bend. pic.twitter.com/kX8RHPN2kf
— Andrew Garrett (@AndrewGGarrett) October 6, 2022
Boise State now ranks fourth in the country in yards per game allowed in 2022, surrendering just 236.2 yards per contest.
The Broncos are No. 3 in the FBS in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 22.4% of their third downs. Boise State has played five games so far. Opponents have attempted 10 or more third downs with one-or-less conversions three times.
Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction
With the Bulldogs season on the brink and the Broncos riding a wave of momentum, this one seems like an utter mismatch.
Then, when you consider how strong Boise State’s defense is playing, it’s a virtual lock. Give the points and take the home team in this spot.
The pick: Boise State – 7.5 (-110)
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Blair Johnson
Sports Writer
Blair Johnson is a veteran journalist and seasoned sports content creator. He has been writing and producing content as long as he can remember, with such familiar names as CNN, NFL Media and Yahoo. Blair currently lives and works in the greater Los Angeles area.
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