Total in Oregon vs Utah Has Decreased Five Points (50.5 to 45.5) Since Monday; Any Value Left?

• The total in the Pac-12 Championship game has decreased from 50.5 to 45.5
• The under has hit in eight of Utah’s 12 games this season
• Is there still value in taking the under for Friday’s game?

Utah (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12)  and Oregon (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12) are facing in off in the Pac-12 Championship game in Santa Clara, California on Friday (Dec. 6).

The total for the game opened at 50.5, but it’s moved down to 45.5 with the public slamming the under. Utah remains a 6.5-point favorite.

Where does the best value lie in the Oregon vs Utah Pac-12 Championship odds after the latest movement?

Utah vs Oregon Odds

Odds taken Dec. 4. 

Total Trending Down

The total for the Pac-12 Championship game between Oregon and Utah opened at 50.5, but it’s been trending downward since Monday and appears to have settled at around 45.5 points.

Bettors have been hammering the under due to rain and wind being in the forecast for Santa Clara. Bettors are also aware that the Utes rank third nationally in total defense and are allowing just 241.6 yards per game.

Utah hasn’t allowed over 30 points to any opponent this season, which has led to the under hitting in eight of their 12 contests.

Over Has Hit In Six Of Last Seven Meetings

While Utah has an elite defense, recent meetings between the Ducks and Utes have been high-scoring. The over has hit in six of the last seven between the two teams and they haven’t combined for fewer than 50 points in a game since 2003.

The Ducks are capable of scoring on this defense, especially with QB Justin Herbert at the helm. Herbert has thrown 3,140 passing yards and 31 TD passes this season and is facing a Utah pass defense that is allowing 185.3 yards per game.

Herbert has performed very well against Utah in his career, completing 50 of 76 passes for 612 passing yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions.

While Herbert’s experience will be a factor on Friday, the weather may lead to the game being won in the trenches. This is where Utah could shine due to having the first-ranked rush defense in the nation and an elite running back in Zack Moss.

Point Spread Hovering Around 6.5

Utah opened as 6.5-point favorites but that line has moved up to 7.0 at some sportsbooks with some early money coming on on the favorite. The spread is yet to move this week, as the public is divided on which team will cover the spread.

Utah opens as a 6.5-point favorite vs. Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.

— Josh Newman (@Joshua_Newman) December 1, 2019

Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss are going to put up points against a susceptible Oregon defense that gave up 31 points to Arizona State two weeks ago. Oregon has the offense to score on Utah, but they’ve been inconsistent lately. You don’t know which Oregon team is going to show up on Friday, so if you’re feeling the Ducks, the better value lies on the moneyline.

Verdict

Utah needs a statement win to increase its chances of making the four-team CFP. They have been the more complete team this season and have all the weapons to win and cover the spread.

There was value in betting the under when the total first opened due to the weather and Utah’s defense, but the better value now lies with the over. There’s plenty of talent and experience on both of these rosters and history suggests another 50-plus point game is reasonably likely.

Oregon can score enough early on this elite Utah defense to keep it somewhat close, but Utah’s defense will stymie the Ducks in the second half and the rain will be a factor as Moss and the run game helps lead the Utes to a statement win.

Pick: Utah -6.5; Over 45.5