Week 3 Upset Pick: Iowa State Prevails Over Iowa on College GameDay

• Iowa State hosts Iowa on ESPN’s College GameDay on Saturday, Sep. 14th
• The Hawkeyes are three-point road favorites in the 2019 Cy-Hawk Game
• Can the Cyclones pull off the upset as home underdogs?

ESPN’s College Gameday is headed to Ames in Week 3 for a rivalry matchup between Iowa State and Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are 2-0 on the season, while the Cyclones needed overtime to beat Northern Iowa in Week 1 before a Week 2 bye.

Will the benefit of the bye week and an electric atmosphere be enough for Iowa State to pull off the upset?

Iowa vs. Iowa State Odds

The Matchup

ESPN’s College GameDay is making its first ever trip to the Ames when Iowa State hosts Iowa in Week 3 for the annual Cy-Hawk Game.

The Cyclones started the season ranked 21st in the AP Poll, but are no longer ranked after needing triple-overtime to beat Northern Iowa at home in Week 1. Starting QB Brock Purdy went 30-of-41 for 278 yards in the game, but overall it was a massively concerning performance from the much-hyped Cyclones.

Iowa is 2-0 on the season after beating Miami OH (38-14) in Week 1 before blanking Rutgers (30-0) in Week 2.

Senior starting QB Nate Stanley is 37-of-58 passing for 488 yards and six touchdowns through two games. Top receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette caught two TD passes in Week 2 and finished with 113 receiving yards.

Iowa is dealing with a boatload of injuries, including one to free safety Kaevon Merriweather. DBs Riley Moss and Julius Brents are also out. DB Matt Hankins is questionable. While Iowa State needed OT to beat an FCS team, they’re coming off consecutive eight-win seasons under coach Matt Campbell and have some great assets.

Why Iowa State Will Win

I like Iowa State for the upset in Week 3 due to the circumstances. This is an intense rivalry game and Iowa State will be well rested following their bye in Week 2. The last time these two teams met in Ames was 2017 when Iowa prevailed in OT by a 44-41 score. Iowa also won in Iowa City, 13-3, last season in another hard-fought war.

Expect another close game this time around. The Cyclones will be hungry to beat the Hawkeyes for the first time in five years in front of their home crowd.

AMESDAY IT IS!

For the first time ever, we're coming to Iowa State!

(? @HomeDepot) pic.twitter.com/ST9zP3fDDV

— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) September 8, 2019

Iowa State has had extra time to rest their own injured players and iron out some of their mistakes from Week 1. Wide Receiver Deshaunte Jones had 14 catches for 126 yards against Northern Iowa, while running back Sheldon Croney rushed 13 times for 56 yards and one touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime. The defense only allowed 34 rushing yards to the Panthers.

Purdy wasn’t yet the QB for Iowa State when then the two teams met last season. He has some intangibles that should give the Iowa defense trouble. Not only does Purdy have a strong and accurate arm, but he finished second on the team in rushing with 308 yards on the ground last year.

Look for the QB to have more than the two carries he attempted in the opener. Iowa only has one sack through two games and the dual-threat Purdy can take advantage. Also look for freshman RB Breece Hall to play a key role.

Iowa vs Iowa State Pick

Injures are piling up for Iowa, and while they do have two relatively easy wins, they’re yet to face a strong dual-threat QB such as Purdy.

Iowa State underwhelmed in Week 1, but they’ve had lots of time to improve their mistakes and prepare for a big Week 3 rivalry game at home.

The bye week and an electric atmosphere will help lead Iowa State to a gritty upset win over their in-state rivals.

Pick: Iowa State (+115)