Upcoming Match-ups

Navy vs Memphis Pick & Odds – Spread Has Moved a Full Point in Navy’s Direction

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Sep 25, 2019 · 5:55 AM PDT

Memphis Tigers celebrating a touchdown
Navy and Memphis clash in Week 5 in a battle of unbeaten AAC teams. Photo from @MemphisFB. (Twitter.)
  • The Navy Midshipmen and Memphis Tigers square off Thursday Night (8:00 PM ET, Sep. 26)
  • The Tigers opened as 11.5-point favorites but that line has been bet down to 10.5
  • What’s the best ATS bet for NAVY-MEM?

The Navy Midshipmen (2-0) visit the Memphis Tigers (3-0) on Thursday night (8:00 PM ET, Sep. 26) in a battle of unbeaten AAC teams. Memphis opened 2019 with a close win over Ole Miss before routing Southern and South Alabama, while the Mids are fresh off a pair of blowout victories over Holy Cross and East Carolina.

Navy vs Memphis Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Navy Midshipmen +310 +10.5 (-110) Over 54.0 (-105)
Memphis Tigers -420 -10.5 (-110) Under 54.0 (-115)

*All odds taken 09/24/19.

The line for this game opened at Memphis -11.5, but that number was quickly bet down and now sits at 10.5. Navy has won three of the past four meetings between these two teams, including a 22-21 nail bitter last year.

Track future line movement at each sportsbook on our Navy vs Memphis odds page.

Can Memphis Stop the Triple Option?

This game will be decided in the trenches. No team runs the ball at a higher rate than Navy and their triple-option scheme is bound to cause all kinds of fits for the Memphis defense.

The Mids average 371.5 rushing yards per game, 47.2 more than any other FBS program, and have scored 10 touchdowns on the ground in their first two games. The Tigers run defense has limited opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry so far, but they’ve yet to face a rushing attack ranked inside the top 55.

Memphis struggled to contain Navy’s run-heavy scheme last season which led to a massive discrepancy in time of possession during that one-point Navy win. If they have any hope of covering this big number that will have to change.

Controlling the Clock Will Be Key

In their 2018 matchup, the Mids had the ball for over 25 minutes longer than the Tigers and ran 30 more plays. This season, Navy is winning the time of possession battle by an average of over 14 minutes per game and will need to maintain slow, methodical drives to wear down the Memphis defense.

By keeping that unit on the field, the Mids should be able to keep this game close especially if their own defense continues to shine. They rank second in points allowed per game (8.5), fourth in yards allowed per game (226.5) and third in 3rd-down conversion rate.

Granted, the Tigers are a much better offensive team than anything Navy has faced so far, but the Ships did hold their first two opponents to well below their season-average output.

Buy the Move on the Midshipmen

This line is moving towards Navy and could possibly dip below double digits by kickoff. It should be extremely difficult for Memphis to cover such a big number given the efficiency of the Mids offense and the amount of time they project to hold the ball.

Grab 10-plus-the-hook while you can because it may not last long.

Pick: Navy +10.5 (-110)

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