Michigan vs TCU Odds, Pick & Prediction for Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinal
- No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 TCU meet in a CFP semifinal in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday, December 31
- Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over the Horned Frogs in the first meeting between the two
- Read below for Michigan vs TCU odds, analysis and prediction
No. 2 Michigan (13-0) is a 7.5-point favorite over TCU in a CFP Semifinal game in the Fiesta Bowl at 4 pm ET Saturday in Glendale, Ariz. The Wolverines are making their second straight appearance in the semifinals after losing to eventual national champion Georgia last season.
No. 3 TCU (12-1) won its first 12 games before falling to Kansas State in overtime in the Big 12 championship game. The Horned Frogs and Wolverines are meeting for the first time.
Let’s take a look at the Michigan vs TCU odds and find the best bet for the Fiesta Bowl.
Michigan vs TCU Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | -7.5 (-108) | +315 | Over 58.5 (-110) |
| TCU Horned Frogs | +7.5 (-112) | -250 | Under 58.5 (-110) |
Odds from FanDuel on Dec. 29. Claim the FanDuel promo code for the Fiesta Bowl.
Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over TCU in a CFP semifinal game. The Wolverines are 8-4-1 ATS this season, 4-1 ATS in their last five and 5-1-1 in their last eight. Michigan has been over the total in its last two games and four of its last six, reversing an early trend. The under was 5-0-1 in Wolverines’ first six games.
TCU is 9-3-1 ATS but has failed to cover two of its last three games, a 29-28 victory over Baylor as a 2.5-point favorite and a 31-28 loss to Kansas State as a one-point underdog. The Horned Frogs are 3-1 ATS as an underdog. The total was over in six of their first eight games but has gone under in four of the last five.
Michigan Returns to the CFP
The Wolverines rode new quarterback J.J. McCarthy, a strong ground game and a pair of stout lines into their second straight CFP semifinal. McCarthy, who made his first start in Week 2 replacing Cade McNamara, has thrown for 2,376 yards and 20 touchdowns against three interceptions. He has three 300-yard games, the last in a 45-23 rout of Ohio State in the final week of the regular season.
J.J. McCarthy w/ a TD pass off a fake around. Fights through some friendly fire and the double move from the TE is WAO. The safety at the bottom bites on the out move. Great design and call. Nice pocket movement from JJMc.#GoBlue
QBSPC only.
Join: https://t.co/l0CJd0zOlL pic.twitter.com/31LxTzdZBo— JT The Hater (@theqbschool) December 28, 2022
When Heisman Trophy candidate Blake Corum (1,463 yards, 18 touchdowns) went down with a knee injury, Donovan Edwards stepped in and rushed for 401 yards and four touchdowns against Ohio State and against Purdue in the Big Ten title game. The Wolverines are seventh in the NCAA in scoring offense at 40.1 points per game and average 243 yards rushing per game behind a line that added center Olu Oluwatimi to a group that included three returning starters from the unit that won the 2021 Joe Moore Award as the best unit line in the FBS. The Wolverines average 5.6 yards per carry and have 38 rushing touchdowns.
Michigan is third in the FBS in total defense (277.1 yards per game) and tied for fourth in scoring defense (13.4 points per). The Wolverines have won 25 games over the past two seasons, a program record.
TCU Rallies Behind Dykes, Duggan
First-year coach Sonny Dykes and new/old quarterback Max Duggan helped TCU become the first Texas program to make the CFP Final Four, powering an offense that averaged 40.3 points and 473 yards per game. Duggan, who moved into the starting lineup this season after an injury to Chandler Morris in the season opener, passed for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns and also rushed for 404 yards and six touchdowns. He has declared for the 2023 NFL draft but will play the Fiesta.
Can’t stop thinking about this-
Max Duggan had 95 rushing yards on the game-tying drive.
“How does he have anything left in the tank?”#Heisman @TCUFootball pic.twitter.com/7eCDTJ7t77
— Autumn 11 College Football (@Autumn_Eleven) December 10, 2022
Halfback Kendre Miller has rushed for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns in a breakout season. He has at least one touchdown in every game this season, extending his scoring streak to 14 games including the final game of 2021. Miller has seven 100-yard games and was instrumental in the Horned Frogs’ 18-point comeback in a 38-28 regular-season victory over Kansas State, rushing for 153 yards and a pair of second-half scores. TCU has a plus-nine turnover margin.
The Horned Frogs overcame deficits of 18, 17, eight, seven and seven points to go undefeated in the Big 12 regular season, beating Baylor with a last-second field goal. They overcame an 11-point deficit in the final eight minutes of regulation against Kansas State to send the Big 12 title game into overtime, a game that turned on a questionable spot on the Horned Frogs’ possession.
Michigan vs TCU Prediction
TCU has had a spectacular season, no question, and if the pattern holds, the Horned Frogs will fall behind in this game before too long. Michigan is so strong on both lines and is so committed to the running game (which gives McCarthy areas to exploit) that a comeback here seems less likely.
The Wolverines are on a mission to take one more step forward this season to get a rematch with Georgia, and they seem well-equipped to do it in a battle of ATS stars.
- Pick: Michigan -7.5 (-108)
- Season CFB: 49-47 ATS
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Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
